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Manila.Rodrigo Duterte’s bloody war on drugs is impeding the sensible bits of his agenda
马尼拉。罗德里戈·杜特尔特针对毒品的血腥战争损害了他计划中的明智之处。
Political norms may be crumbling all around the world, but citing Adolf Hitler as an inspiration remains a no-no almost everywhere. That did not stop Rodrigo Duterte, the outspoken president of the Philippines, who declared in September that he wanted to do to Filipino drug addicts what Hitler had done to Jews.
政治规范可能正在世界各地崩溃中，但把阿道夫·希特勒作为灵感之源在任何地方都是一个禁忌。这并没有阻止口无遮拦的菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特（Rodrigo Duterte）。9月份他宣布将对菲律宾的吸毒成瘾者施行希特勒对待犹太人所做的相同的手段。
So far, Mr Duterte’s drug war has seen more than 7,000 drug suspects killed by police, vigilantes and rivals (the three categories overlap). Most Filipinos are enthusiastic, albeit nervous for their safety; many foreigners are appalled. Love it or hate it, the campaign has totally overshadowed Mr Duterte’s eight months in office. Yet Filipinos elected Mr Duterte not just for his “Duterte Harry” approach to crime, but because of a much broader pledge to upend the status quo by elbowing aside entrenched elites, reducing yawning inequality and repairing crumbling infrastructure. In addition to its terrible cost in lives, Mr Duterte’s anti-drugs crusade risks becoming a distraction from the many more constructive items on his agenda.
到目前为止，杜特尔特总统的缉毒战争已经使7000多名毒品嫌疑人被警察，联防队员或竞争对手绞杀（三个分类有重叠）。大多数菲律宾人都充满热情，虽然也担心他们自身的安全; 但许多外国人却深感震惊。爱也好恨也好，这场运动完全笼罩了杜特尔特执政的头八个月。然而菲律宾人选择杜特尔特不仅仅是因为他的“杜特尔特式打击”犯罪的方法，而是因为一个更广泛的承诺-通过排挤根深蒂固的精英，减少令人厌倦的不平等和修复崩溃的基础设施来改变现状。除了给人民的生活带来极高的成本，杜特尔特的反毒行动冒着把注意力从更具建设性的计划中分散的风险。
The most important measure Mr Duterte’s administration has so far presented to Congress, where his supporters hold a hefty majority, is the first of five ambitioustax-reform bills. It would lower the top personal income-tax rate from 32% (relativelyhigh for the region) to 25%, and would raise the threshold at which tax becomes payable. To offset those losses, the bill would increase taxes on fuel and vehicles. Thesecond bill, which the government plans to introduce later this year, would reducethe corporate income-tax rate from 30% (also high for the region) to 25%, while trimmingtax breaks. Later measures would lower inheritance taxes, make more goodsand services subject to value-added tax (VAT) and raise taxes on alcohol, cigarettesand, perhaps, sugary drinks.
杜特尔特在国会中的支持者占绝大多数。这个政府迄今为止向国会提出的最重要的举措是，五个雄心勃勃的税务改革法案中的第一个。它将个人所得税率从最高32％（在该地区相对较高）降至25％，并将提高应纳税的门槛。为抵消由此带来的损失，该法案将增加燃油和车辆税。政府还计划在今年晚些时候导入第二个法案。这将减少企业所得税率，从30％（在该地区也是比较高的）降至25％，同时调整税收减免。后续措施还包括降低遗产税，更多的货物和服务开具增值税（VAT），并增加酒精，香烟的税负水平，也许还会包括含糖饮料。
Carlos Dominguez, the finance minister, says these changes should raise revenue, despite lowering headline rates. The lower personal rate will, he hopes, deter tax evasion by reducing the incentive to cheat. The lower corporate rate is intended to attract more foreign investment.
财政部长卡洛斯·多明格斯(Carlos Dominguez)说，尽管降低了最高税率，这些变化应该最终会带来更多岁入。他希望更低的个人税率可以减少欺诈的动机，阻止逃税行为。较低的公司税率旨在吸引更多的外国投资。
Tax and spend
税收和开支
Increased revenues are essential to Mr Duterte’s ambitious infrastructure plans. For years the country has underinvested in infrastructure—in the World Economic Forum’s most recent Global Competitiveness Index, the Philippines ranked 95th in the sector, well below its South-East Asian peers. Mr Duterte’s administration wants to spend 5-7% of GDP on infrastructure, roughly what his predecessor, Benigno Aquino, managed in his last year, and well above the average rate between 1980 and 2009 of around 2%. Manila has some of the world’s worst traffic—two-hour commutes in each direction are not unusual. As a candidate, Mr Duterte promised to do some thing about it, which helped win him support from Manila’s middle class.
增加岁入对杜特尔特雄心勃勃的基础设施计划至关重要。多年来，该国对基础设施投资不足 - 在世界经济论坛最新的全球竞争力指数中，菲律宾排名第95位，远低于其东南亚国家。 杜特尔特政府希望将GDP的5-7％投资于基础设施，大约和他的前任贝尼尼奥·阿基诺在任最后一年持平。这将远高于1980年至2009年2％的平均水平。 马尼拉有着世界上最糟糕的交通 - 每个方向两个小时的通勤并不罕见。 作为候选人，杜特尔特承诺做一些事情改变现状，这助他赢得了马尼拉中产阶级的支持。
Priorities, according to Mr Dominguez, include better airports and railway lines around the country, notably in Mr Duterte’s underdeveloped home island of Mindanao, and between Manila, Subic Bay and Clark—raising the possibility of a new international airport at Clark to relieve congestion at the abysmal one that serves Manila. Numerous projects approved by the previous administration are scheduled for completion during this one, giving Mr Duterte plenty of opportunities to grin, cut ribbons and claim credit.
根据多明格斯先生的说法，优先事项包括在全国各地建造更好的机场和铁路，特别是在杜特尔特不发达的家乡棉兰老岛，以及马尼拉，苏比克湾和克拉克之间的交通。这将提高在克拉克建造新的国际机场的可能性，以缓解马尼拉空港糟糕的拥挤状况。上届政府批准的许多项目预期在此届任期内完成。这将给杜特尔特许多抛头露脸，剪彩和获取信用的机会。
Other items on the “ten-point socioeconomic agenda” he released shortly before taking office include relaxing restrictions on foreign ownership of companies, overhauling land-tenure laws, improving the country’s health and education systems, promoting rural development and broadening access to contraception.
他上任之前公布的“十点社会经济议程”的其他项目包括放宽对公司外资所有权的限制，彻底改革土地所有权法律，改善国家的卫生和教育系统，促进农村发展和扩大受惠避孕的机会。
Mr Duterte is also well positioned to put an end to two of his country’s longest insurgencies. Mr Aquino presented Congress with a bill granting autonomy to Muslims in Mindanao; Mr Duterte, who got on well with Muslims as mayor of the island’s biggest city, says he supports it. In February he cancelled peace talks with the communist New People’s Army, but he has close ties (too close, whisper some) with leftists, and the two sides may soon find their way back to the negotiating table.
杜特尔特先生也很有机会结束国内两个最长的内乱。阿奎诺总统向国会提交了一份授予棉兰老穆斯林自主权的法案; 杜特尔特总统支持这个提案。作为这个岛上最大城市的市长杜特尔特和穆斯林相处和睦。 二月他取消了与共产党新人民军的和平谈判，但他与左派有密切的关系（关系太铁，小声一点），双方很快就会回到谈判桌上。
Making good on any of these initiatives requires attention and discipline from the top, however, and Mr Duterte remains almost wholly focused on drugs. Many hoped that would change: in late January Mr Duterte suspended his drug war after rogue police officers killed a South Korean businessman. But this week the national police chief said that drugs are creeping back onto the streets, and the president suggested that the war would resume.
但是，从任何这些计划中获益需要上层的关注和训导，而杜特尔特总统仍然几乎完全专注于打击毒品。许多人希望改变：流氓警官杀害一个韩国商人后，一月下旬杜特尔特总统暂停了禁毒战争。但这个星期，国家警察局长说，毒品正卷土重来，总统建议恢复行动。
Mr Duterte is now pushing a bill to reduce the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to nine, and also wants to reinstate capital punishment (formally) for drug trafficking. These proposals are meeting resistance in Congress, which is also uncertain about autonomy for Muslim areas and lukewarm about tax reform. This week Leila de Lima, a senator and a long-standing critic of Mr Duterte’s, was arrested on charges that she ran a drug-trafficking ring while serving as Mr Aquino’s justice secretary. Ms de Lima strongly denies the charges, calling herself a “political prisoner”.
杜特尔特总统正在推动一项法案，将刑事责任年龄从15岁降至9岁，并且还要对贩毒者的恢复死刑。 这些建议在国会遇到阻力；议会是否支持穆斯林地区自治还不确定；对于税收改革也缺乏热情。 本周，参议员Leila de Lima（她长期批评杜特尔特家族）被捕。因为她被指控在担任阿奎诺总统的司法秘书期间经营贩毒集团。 Lima女士强烈否认这些指控，并称自己是“政治犯”。
The president’s erratic character, obsession with drugs and indifference to the rule of law have consumed his first eight months in office. But his term is six years: there is still plenty of time to focus on more worthwhile plans. The millions of Filipinos who elected him to improve their lives will expect no less, even if they, too, are now distracted by the war on drugs.
总统古怪的性格，对打击毒品的痴迷和对法治的漠不关心，已用了他任期的前八个月。 但他将执政六年，还有很多时间专注于更有价值的计划上。 数百万菲律宾人选择他是为了改善生活。虽然现在他们也因为打击毒品运动而分心，但他们的预期一点也不会降低。
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