Buttonwood
梧桐树
The best, the worst and the ugly
最好的、最坏的和丑的
The art of picking mutual funds
挑选共同基金的艺术
Jan 12th 2013 | from the print edition
AT THE end of 2011 small investors who had bought mutual funds that focused on index-linked giltswere feeling pretty smug. It was the best-performing British sector of that year. But woe betide themif they then hung on to the funds all the way through 2012. The sector was last year’s worst performer.
2011年年末，购买与指数挂钩的金边公债的共同基金的小额投资者洋洋自得，这类基金是2011年英国表现最好的基金种类，但是如果投资者持有此类基金到2012年底的话，就是大难临头了：它们是去年的最差表现投资品。
The difficulties facing investors when selecting individual mutual-fund managers are well known. Past returns may be a result of luck, not skill, and a smart manager may be hired away by a rival firm. But perhaps past data can still be of some use for asset-allocation purposes, if only as a contrarian indicator?
投资者在挑选个人共同基金经理问题上容易犯难是众所周知的。过去的投资回报或许纯属运气，而非技术。聪明的基金经理可能会被对手公司雇走。但也许以往的数据仍可为资产配置提供些帮助，至少作为逆向投资参考指标?
To test the principle Ed Moisson of Lipper, an information provider, analysed the records of British mutual funds over the past 30 years. At The Economist’s request, he compared the records of the best-performing, median and worst-performing British sectors over one-, three- and five-year periods (see chart).
信息咨询公司理柏（Lipper）的Ed Moisson为了验证上述原理，分析了过去三十年里英国共同基金的表现。应《经济学人》之请，他分别比较了一年期、三年期、五年期内英国表现最好、中等及最差的基金种类（见图表）。
The analysis shows two forces at work. The first is momentum, the tendency for shares that have performed well to continue to do so. Momentum is a long-established phenomenon at the level of individual stocks and is a puzzle for those who believe that markets are efficient. How can information that is widely available, like past price performance, be a useful guide to future price movements? Theory suggests that the momentum effect should be quickly arbitragedaway.
分析结果显示有两股力量作用其中。第一是惯性，即曾经表现不错的股票有保持良好表现的趋势。惯性在个人参股上是老生常谈的现象，但对相信市场效用的人来说是个谜。那些唾手可得的信息－比如以往的价格表现－怎么能够有效指导未来的价格变动呢？理论认为惯性效应该很快被套利抵消。
The persistence of momentum has been explained by the relationship between investors and the fund managers who look after their money. Investors choose fund managers on the basis of past performance. When those fund managers get new money from clients, they invest in their favourite stocks. Because those managers have been successful, their favourite stocks are likely to be those that have already performed well.
投资者和管理其金钱的基金经理之间的关系也解释了惯性的持续性。投资者根据基金经理的过往业绩选择基金经理。当基金经理从投资客户那里拿到钱后，会投资自己最中意的股票。由于这些基金经理之前业绩不错，他们最中意的股票也可能是之前就表现不错的。
The chart suggests momentum also exists at the sectoral level. Buying a fund in the best-performing sector of the previous year earns a higher average return over the next year than either the worst or the median performer. Extend that period forwards by another four years, and the best sector in the prior year outperforms the worst by close to 30 percentage points.
以上图表显示惯性还存在于行业层面。买进上一年度表现最好的行业基金所获平均回报比买进表现中等或最差的多。如果将一年期延长至五年期，就会发现前一年表现最好的基金要比最差的那个好将近30%个点。
The second force is reversion to the mean. Assets can become overvalued: think of Japanese shares in the late 1980s or dotcom stocksin the late 1990s. As values return to normal, the assets underperform.
第二股力量叫做均值回归。资产价值可能被高估，1980年代末的日本股票或者九十年代末的互联网股票就是如此。当价值回归正常值时，资产表现就会落后于大市。
The reversion-to-the-mean effect shows up most over longer periods. Investors selecting a sector on the basis of its prior five-year performance would have earned much higher returns over the followingfive years by selecting the worst-performing sector than the best. The gap is more than 30 percentage points. In the long term it pays to be contrarian.
均值回归效应通常出现在较长时间段内。根据前五年表现来选择的投资者，选最差基金在接下来五年的回报要比选最好的高出很多，这中间差距有三十几个百分点。长远来看，这就是逆向投资。
It may seem surprising that the reversion-to-the-mean effect is not stronger over shorter periods. But mutual-fund sectors are not equal: some asset classes are likely to have a higher average return than others. Equities are more volatile than bonds or cash and have accordingly paid a premium returnto investors over time. In the tables showing the one-year past performance, there are more equity sectors (22) in the best category than in the worst (19); by contrast, there are more bond and cash sectors (9) in the worst list than in the best (6). That gives funds in the top sectors a natural upward bias.
均值回归效应在较短时间内表现不明显这一点或许有些出人意料。但是不同行业的共同基金不可比：一些资产种类的平均回报可能高于其它种类。股票类基金的波动性就高于债券或者货币类基金，而且会随时间相应给投资者带来保费回报。图表中一年期基金表现说明：表现最好的股票类基金（22个）比最差的（19个）多；相反，表现最差的债券和货币类基金（9个）比最好的（6个）多。这就给了表现较好的基金种类自然向上的趋势。
Any momentum or contrarian strategy is likely to focus on equities, and in specialist sectors where the swings are wildest. Technology and telecoms funds were the best performers over five years on four occasions in the 1990s, and the worst performers four times in the first decade of the 21st century. Funds focusing on smaller firms have been the best annual performers on nine separate occasions and the worst on eight others.
所有的惯性或者逆向投资策略似乎都是针对股票和波动最强烈的专业行业。在1990年代，科技和电子通信基金在五年内有四次表现最好，但在21世纪头十年里又有四次表现最差。小企业基金有九次属于年度最佳表现，有八次是最差。
So what are the momentum and contrarian bets for 2013? The best British sector last year was UK smaller companies. Investors betting that the trend will continue will need strong nerves: the FTSE SmallCapindex trades on a price-earnings ratioof 37and offers a dividend yieldof just 2.7%, almost a point below the yield on blue chipsin the FTSE 100. And the contrarian bet? The worst-performing sector over the past five years was property, a popular investment a decade ago. Perhaps the attractions of an asset that offers a decent income and a hedge against inflation will come back into fashion.
那么2013年的惯性和逆向投资赌注会是什么呢？去年，英国表现最好的是小公司基金。投资者打赌这种趋势会持续是需要很大勇气的：目前富时小盘股指数以37倍的市盈率进行交易，股息收益率仅为2.7%，几乎比富时100的蓝筹股低一个百分点。至于逆向投资赌注呢？过去五年表现最差的行业是房地产，十年前的投资大热门。或许能够提供可观收益和对冲通胀的资产会再度流行。
from the print edition | Finance and economics
译注：（以下金融术语解释选自《英汉双解路透金融词典》）
1. mutual fund 共同基金
共同基金是集合公众的资金,由专业的资产管理公司受托负责投资的一种方式。投资人共同承担风险,共同分享投资利润。基金经理根据基金既定的目标以及规范,将投资人的资金分散投资在各种资产上。共同基金为投资人带来分散投资以及专业资产管理的益处,同时也是流动性很高的资产,变现方便,但投资人必须向基金公司支付资产管理费,很多基金亦收取认购费以及赎回费,这会降低投资者的回报。共同基金一般追求参照市场指标(benchmark)的相对回报,即只要不跑输大盘已算及格,所以一旦市场进入大空头,投资者往往亏损惨重,但仍需支付资产管理费。另外,随着共同基金成为主导市场的主要力量,基金表现要超越大盘日益困难,很多基金的表现还不如大盘。共同基金是开放式基金,封闭式基金不能称为共同基金. 在英国,共同基金亦称为unit trust.
2.Contrarian反向操作投资人
指那些看法与市场多数意见相反，操作方向与当前趋势相逆的投资人。 例如，在大部分市场人士仍在积极抛售股票时，反向操作者会择机买进，因其相信卖压可能已接近完全释尽，或者市场已进入超卖状况。
Someone who moves or acts in the opposite direction to the general trend. A contrarian investor buys stock when the rest of the market is selling.
3. FTSE（Financial Times and Stock Exchange）富时指数公司
A company that specializes in index calculation. Although not part of a stock exchange, co-owners include the London Stock Exchange and the Financial Times.
The FTSE is similar to Standard & Poor's in the United States. They are best known for the FTSE 100, an index of blue-chip stocks on the London Stock Exchange.
4. Equity
指股东在公司中所占的权益，多用于指股票。英文equity market是指股票市场，即股票发行与交易的市场。
The shareholders' stake in a company. Equity markets are the markets in which shares or stocks are issued and traded.
5. price-earnings ratio （P/E或PER）股票的市盈率／本益比／价格收益比率
指每股市价除以每股盈利（Earnings Per Share，EPS），通常作为股票是便宜抑或昂贵的指标（通货膨胀会使每股收益虚增，从而扭曲市盈率的比较价值）。市盈率把企业的股价与其制造财富的能力联系起来。
每股盈利的计算方法，一般是以该企业在过去一年的净利润除以总发行已售出股数。市盈率越低，代表投资者能够以相对较低价格购入股票。假设某股票的市价为24元，而过去一年的每股盈利为3元，则市盈率为24/3=8。该股票被视为有8倍的市盈率，即在假设该企业以后每年净利润和去年相同的基础上，如果不考虑通货膨胀因素，回本期为8年，折合平均年回报率为12.5%，投资者每付出8元可分享1元的企业盈利。但上市公司通常只会把部分盈利用来派发股息，其余用来作进一步发展，所以市盈率的倒数不等于股息率。
6. Dividend Yield股息收益率
反映股票股息收益水平的指标，以按年率计算的股息除以股票市价得出。高收益率可能意味着高水平的股息，但也可能只是因为股价已显着地下跌，致使在市场不看好公司的情况下，股息收益率看来也相当不错。低收益率可能意味着股价因市场预期公司快速成长而上升，也可能只是因为公司选择保留现金供再投资之用，因此没有派发多少股息。
"The ratio of annualized dividends to the price of a share. Dividend yields are widely used to measure the income return of a share. High yields may mean high dividends, or they may mean that the price of the share has fallen, making the ratio look impressive despite a poor market rating of the company. Low yields may mean that the company's share price is high in anticipation of rapid growth, or that the company is not distributing much of its earnings in dividends, preferring to keep cash for reinvestment in the business.
英文原文报道：
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2013/01/12/the-best-the-worst-and-the-ugly
修改前译文：
http://www.ecocn.org/thread-177398-1-1.html
参考译文：
http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=177045&fromuid=31325
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