A sad array of problems is shrinking south-eastern Europe’s population
一系列让人悲哀的问题正在使欧洲东南部的人口减少。
South-eastern europe is in a Catch-22. The region’s many problems prompt young, talented people to leave in droves. But it will not catch up with the rest of Europe without young, talented people to generate prosperity. Across the Balkans, populations are shrinking and ageing, and unless that changes even more will leave.
东南欧正处于进退两难的境地。这个地区的很多问题正在使年轻、有才华的人成群结队的离开。但是如果没有年轻、有才华的人来创造繁荣，这里永远赶不上其它的欧洲国家。整个巴尔干地区，人口都在缩减和老龄化，除非这种情况改变，否则会有更多人离开。
Measuring demography in the Balkans is difficult: apart from those for births and deaths, data are hard to come by. A lorry-driver who leaves Belgrade to take a job in Germany does not have to tell the Serbian authorities. Because of the region’s complicated history, millions of its citizens can get passports from neighbouring “mother countries”. These are especially attractive if the mother country belongs to the eu, since eu citizenship includes the right to work anywhere in the union. A fifth of Croatian passport-holders working abroad are probably from Bosnia, and almost all Moldovans working in the West have Romanian documents. All this makes it hard to tell who is where.
统计巴尔干的人口是很困难的：除了出生和死亡信息，几乎得不到其他数据。一个货车司机，离开Belgrade 去德国找工作，并不需要告诉Serbian当局。由于该地区的复杂历史，数百万的居民可以从相邻“母国”获得护照。如果其母国是欧盟成员，这将会更具有吸引力。因为欧盟公民拥有在欧盟任何地区工作的权利。在国外工作的持有 Croatian 护照的人中，有五分之一可能是来自Bosnia。而且，几乎所有的在西方工作的摩尔多瓦人都有 罗马尼亚证件。所有的这些都使得很难确定谁在哪里。
Yet the data that are available paint a clear picture. The population of every Balkan country is shrinking because of emigration and low fertility. In the past, populations grew back after waves of emigration, since many women had six children. Now few have more than one. Serbia may have more pensioners than working-age people by next year.
然而，现有的数据呈现出一个清晰的画面。每个巴尔干国家的人口都在缩减，因为移民和低生育率。在之前，移民潮过去后，因为许多女人有6个孩子，人口增长一度回归。现在，1个孩子都不到。到明年，塞尔维亚领取养老金的人数将会超过工作人数。
In the short run governments do not mind emigration because it lowers unemployment and increases remittances from abroad. But in the long run, says Vladimir Nikitovic, a Serbian demographer, it is “catastrophic”. About 50,000 people leave Serbia every year. Of those who return, around 10,000 are pensioners who have spent their working lives in the West. Their children will not follow them back.
在短期内，政府不会介意移民，因为这降低了失业率并且增加了外汇。塞尔维亚的人口学家 Vladimir Nikitovic 说，但长远来看 ，这是灾难性的。每年有将近五万人离开塞尔维亚。当这群人回来的时候，有将近1万人是要领养老金的，但他们已经把工作的生命留在了西方国家。他们的孩子将不会跟着他们回来。
On current projections Bulgaria will have 39% fewer people by 2050 than it did in 1990 (see chart). The region has some of the world’s lowest fertility rates. Bosnian women have an average of 1.3 children and Croatians 1.4. Kosovo, with a median age of 29, has the region’s youngest population, but its fertility rate of 2.0 (just under the replacement rate) has been falling for years too. Elsewhere, rates are similar to those of western European countries. But because the Balkans host hardly any taxpaying immigrants, money for pensioners is scarce.
根据目前的预测，到2050年保加利亚的人口将比1990年降低39% 。这个地区是世界最低生育率地区之一。波斯尼亚的女人平均有1.3个孩子，克罗地亚妇女有1.4个。科索沃的平均年龄是29岁，是这个地区最年轻的人口。但是其生育率为2.0 （略低于人口置换率），已经持续数年下降。其他地方，生育率也和这些西欧国家相似。但是由于巴尔干几乎没有任何纳税的移民，养老金的花费很少。
The effects of population shrinkage are stark. At the height of the summer holidays Rasnov, a pretty town in Romania’s Transylvanian hills which once had a bustling marketplace, is eerily empty, with barely a café open. A generation ago its ethnic Sax-on population, which traced its roots to the Middle Ages, left for Germany. Its ethnic Romanians seek work elsewhere. They send money home to ageing parents, but few come back except to retire. Why work in a café in Rasnov when you can do the same for far more money abroad?
人口衰减的影响是明显的。罗马尼亚特兰西山区的小镇拉斯诺夫，曾经是一个繁荣的市场。而现在暑假高峰，这里却几乎空无一人，几乎没有一家咖啡馆营业。一代人之前，期萨克斯人族裔可以追溯到中世纪，迁移至德国。罗马尼亚人到其他地方找工作。他们把钱打给年迈的父母，但自己很少回来，除非退休。如果你能够在国外做同样的事情得到更多的钱，为什么还要在拉斯诺夫的咖啡馆工作呢？
A few of the region’s cities have grown. Cluj, another town in Transylvania, is booming. Albania’s capital, Tirana, is also drawing people in. Its mayor, Erion Veliaj, says it faces an influx of 25,000 people every year. But those are exceptions.
这个地区的一些城市也已经发展壮大。特兰西瓦尼亚的另外一个小镇克鲁日正在蓬勃发展。阿尔巴尼亚的首都，地拉那也在吸引人们前来。该市市长 Erion Veliaj 说，他们面临每年2.5万人的涌入。但这些城市都是例外。
This combination of rapid emigration, low fertility and sparse immigration produces the worst imaginable result, says Kresimir Ivanda, a Croatian demographer. Greece, Italy and Spain have low birth rates, but attract lots of immigrants. In Poland, more than 1m Ukrainians have filled gaps in the labour market left by emigration.
克罗地亚的人口学家Kresimir Ivanda说道，快速的移民移出、低生育率和稀少的移民移入 造成了这种可以想象的糟糕结果。希腊、意大利、西班牙虽然生育率也低，但是他们吸引了更多的移民。在波兰，超过100万的乌克兰填补了移民留下的劳务市场空缺。
Mr Nikitovic worked for a national commission on solving Serbia’s demographic crisis, but the government, he says, did not act on enough of its ideas to make much difference. As in many Balkan countries, the problems are legion. Women are discouraged from having more children by the lack of protection against being fired when they become pregnant. Cheap air travel makes seeking work abroad easy (or did before covid-19 struck). In normal times, Croatian carers in Britain or Romanians in German slaughterhouses can commute to short-term jobs. This worsens labour shortages at home, which in turn pushes up wages. Ivan Vejvoda, of the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, thinks meeting western Europe’s needs without draining the Balkan countries of their people requires concerted action by the eu and the states of the region.
Nikitovic 先生曾在一个解决塞尔维亚人口危机的国际委员会工作，但是他说，政府并没有充分按照他们的想法去做，所以并没有产生太大的改变。和许多巴尔干国家一样，问题是众多的。因为妇女们在怀孕的时候，缺乏防止被解雇的保护，她们不情愿要更多孩子。便宜的航空旅行，使得在国外找工作很容易。在正常时期，英国的克罗地亚护工或者德国的罗马尼亚人可以转做短期工作。这加剧了国内的劳动力短缺，进而推高了工资水平。维也纳人类科学研究所的Ivan Vejvoda 认为，在满足欧洲需求的基础上不消耗巴尔国家的干人民，需要欧洲和这些地区采取协调一致的行动。
Of course, for citizens of Balkan countries, earning higher wages abroad is a boon. Remus Gabriel Anghel, a Romanian demographer, says the migration experiences of the past 15 years have also been a motor of social change. Before, people just wanted to make ends meet; now those who have lived in western Europe demand better schools, hospitals and services. This, Mr Anghel says, is something the government “does not really understand”.
当然，这对巴尔干国家的公民来说，在国外获得更高的薪水是一种福利。罗马尼亚人口统计学家Remus Gabriel Anghel 说，过去15年的移民经历，也是社会变革的动力。从前，人们只想量入为出 。现在这些已经在西欧国家生活过的人要求更好的学校、医院和服务。安格尔先生表示，政府并不真正理解这些。
我是@书生吴小帅，学会思考，保持进步，高度自律。
个人博客：www.wushuai.net
网友评论