简洁的代价（1/2）

A central bank's words have power. Three of them (whatever it takes) calmed the euro area's debt panic in 2012. Another few (the Federal Reserve mulling a step down in our pace of purchases) started the taper tantrum that upset emerging markets in 2013.

央行的话语颇具有分量。2012年，其中三家（“竭尽所能”）平息了欧元区的债务恐慌。2013年，另外几家（美联储考虑“放慢购买步伐”）开启了令新兴市场不安的缩减恐慌。

What is left unsaid can also be powerful. After its interest-rate meeting on April 25th, Turkey's central bank failed to repeat eight words that had been included in each of its seven previous statements:

剩下没有发言的仍很有影响力。4月25日利率会议后，土耳其央行未能重复此前七份声明中包含的八个词：

if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered. The omission cast doubt on its commitment to fight inflation, which was almost 20% in the year to March.

“如有需求，将出台进一步的货币紧缩政策”。这一遗漏让人怀疑它对抗通货膨胀的承诺，截止三月，其通货膨胀率将近20%。

In response, the lira fell by more than 1% against the dollar. It has fallen by 11% this year. The mishap was an uncomfortable reminder of last summer's currency turmoil, when the central bank

作为回应，里拉兑美元下跌超过1%。今年已经下降了11%。这一灾祸使人想起去年夏天的货币动荡，当时中央银行

(browbeaten by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's president) failed to raise interest rates swiftly enough to prevent a collapse in the currency. But the parallels should not obscure what has changed in the interim. Turkey's economy is better balanced now than it was then.

（受制于土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安）未能迅速提高利率阻止货币崩溃。但这些相似之处不应该掩盖其中的变化。土耳其现在的经济比之前更加平衡。

In September the central bank reasserted itself, increasing interest rates to 24%, where they have stayed since. The combination of tighter money and a cheaper currency curbed import spending and encouraged exports.

九月，央行重申自己跌立场，将利率上涨至24%，自此之后一直保持该水平。货币紧缩和货币贬值的组合抑制了进口支出，鼓励了出口。

As a result, Turkey's current-account deficit has narrowed far more swiftly than even the government had envisaged. Although its import bill is hardly the only claim on its foreign earnings (its banks and firms must also service heavy external debts),

因此，土耳其经常账目赤字的缩减速度比政府设想的要快得多。虽然其进口账单并不是海外收益的唯一要求（其银行和公司也必须服务于沉重的债务。）

the lira was relatively stable from December to February. Local elections in March were supposed to bring a similar stability to politics,

但从12月至2月，里拉相对稳定。3月的地方选举本应给政治带来类似的稳定，

concluding a maddening cycle in which Turks marched to the polls seven times in five years. Instead, the weeks before and since have done the opposite, unsettling both Turkey's politics and the markets.

结束土耳其人5年7次的疯狂选举循环。相反，前几周和之后的几周却适得其反，让土耳其的政治和市场都感到不安。

Mr Erdogan's party, which lost in most of the country's big cities, has so far refused to accept its narrow defeat in the Istanbul mayoral contest. Citing alleged irregularities, it has asked for a new vote.

埃尔多安所在的政党失去了该国的大部分城市，到目前为止，该党拒绝承认在伊斯坦布尔的选举中以微弱优势落败。该党以涉嫌违规为理由要求重新投票选举。

2019-05-14

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经济学人——简洁的代价（1/2）