阿罗(Kenneth Arrow)是诺贝尔奖获得者:
还健在的阿罗(K. J. Arrow,1921-)是个天才。精于数学经济,他和十九世纪发过的古诺(A. A. Cournot, 1801-1877)是两位我佩服的喜欢用数学思考的经济学者。
他不走验证工作的路,但客观,想象力强。
作者称这样的人:
凤毛麟角,一百年一个,考虑走数学经济的路的同学要三思而后行了。
这章说阿罗的文章,是:
一九六二年发表的《发明的经济福利与资源运用》。。。首先提出了几个关键性问题,我们不能漠视。
虽然:
几个关键性问题。。。不是他首先提出。。。但他综合起来发挥,思路纵横。。。
哪几个关键性问题呢?
发明研究有三个特征带来困难:uncertainty, indivisibility, inappropriability。
首先要注意的是,阿罗的“发明”是很广义的,从原文来看:
INVENTION is here interpreted broadly as the production of knowledge.
问题就来自于broadly了 —— 随后我们就会看到。先看看三个特征的意思,首先是:
Uncertainty指风险。。。阿罗认为人有规避风险的倾向,不利研究发明的投资。
作者补充:
我喜欢代之以讯息费用,但大家接受的是发明的成果事前难以预料的因素大。
这里:
- 讯息费用是经济学的角度,可以促成行动,即如何获得更多信息、从而降低信息费用?
- 而成果的难以预料,似乎在强化了人的不可为、不作为的惰性了,也许并不可取
接着看后两个:
Indivisibility是说不可分割。。。阿罗是指一项发明或思想不容易分割或切开出售。
这就带到他关心的不容易把不同的使用者隔离的问题。
作者解释:
我认为他其实要说的是发明是共用品,可以让无数人一起共用,把他们隔离收费不容易。
第三个:
Inappropriability。。。在阿罗的内容上应解做“不能界定付款的分配”。
两者相加:
indivisibility与inappropriability相加,阿罗是说发明的成果不容易收取回报。。。
也就是说:
思想或发明有销售收钱的困难。
这一点,我的考察支持阿罗的想法。
所以:
他的结论是市场的发明投资是偏低了,经济效率不足,需要政府资助。
看阿罗的原文:
To sum up, we expect a free enterprise economy to underinvest ininvention and research (as compared with an ideal) because it is risky,because the product can be appropriated only to a limited extent, and because of increasing returns in use. This underinvestment will be greater for more basic research. Further, to the extent that a firm succeeds in engrossing the economic value of its inventive activity, there will be an underutilization of that information as compared with an ideal allocation.
There is really no need for the firm to be the fundamental unit of organization in invention; there is plenty of reason to suppose that individual talents count for a good deal more than the firm as an organization. If provision is made for the rental of necessary equipment, a much wider variety of research contracts with individuals as well as firms and with varying modes of payment,including incentives, could be arranged. Still other forms of organization, such as research institutes financed by industries, the government, and private philanthropy, could be made to play an even livelier role than they now do.
要注意的是,阿罗的这篇文章中还论述了很多信息产品本身的特性,来支持三大特性的论述:
Uncertainty usually creates a still more subtle problem in resource allocation; information becomes a commodity.
In fact, a given piece of information is by definitionan indivisible commodity, and the classical problems of allocation in the presence of indivisibilities appear here. The owner of the information should not extract the economic value which is there, if optimal allocation is to be achieved; but he is a monopolist, to some small extent and will seek to take advantage of this fact.
In the absence of special legal protection, the owner cannot, however, simply sell information on the open market... Thus the only effective monopoly would be the use of the information by the original possessor.
If any particular item of information has differing values for different economic agents, this procedure will lead both to a nonoptimal purchase of information at any given price and also to a non optimal allocation of the information purchased.
最后才得到了结论:
The central economic fact about the processes of invention and research is that they are devoted to the production of information. By the very definition of information, invention must be a risky process, in that the output (information obtained) can never be predicted perfectly from the inputs.
Thus basic research, the output of which is only used as an informational input into other inventive activities, is especially unlikely to be rewarded.
所以,其实这篇文章,其实也可以不是一篇文章的。。。大师不愿意搞这些小动作,而且可能认为这样安排整篇文章才算理所当然,是凡夫俗子过于愚钝。
但是我们也能看到,这样写这篇文章,带来的几个观点,就被张五常老爷子给分而治之了 —— 首先是针对广义的发明 vs. 专利:
发明专利的要点,是注册时需要公开占有的是些什么,要以实物表达。
换言之,以公开是何物的方法来注册专利会减少收费的困难。
阿罗这第一点用于商业秘密是对的,但用于发明专利不对。
所以商业秘密怎么做呢?肯定还是需要严加保护、形成实物性质的“封装”、占领用户心智等等手段 —— 是下一节的话题了。
接着看第二个问题,还是接着发明专利继续破:
发明专利的租用合约一般有一个放在前头的较大额的一次性收费(lump-sum),跟着以每件产品算的收费下降,显示着专利的持有者鼓励租用者增加产量的意图。
而理想情况下:
要是交易费用允许,发明专利的持有者可以找到不同使用者的不同一次性收费,也可以按时把这些一次性的收费一次又一次地调校。
这样,专利的持有者的最高财富是使用量的边际收费永远是零。
这其实已经是很多平台类软件、应用的收费方式了 —— 在过去还有难点:
市场的交易或讯息费用往往不容许这样做。
我的直觉是发明专利的持有者按产品件数收取使用费的主要原因,是希望通过按件收费来获取市场需求的讯息。
通过“安装”传感器来获取信息,在手机、IoT应用、万物互联的时代,已经不是问题了,所以作者接着说:
按件数收费专利的持有者有权查察,知道生意有多好才考虑调校续约时的一次性收取的金额。
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