01 Japan is wrong to try to prop up the yen.
In 2022 Japan spent more than $60bn of itsforeign-exchange reservesdefending the yen用屯的外汇去补日元贬值的差值，小编认为跟市场斗争是徒劳的
外汇储备（Foreign Exchange Reserve）又称为外汇存底，指为了应付国际支付的需要，各国的中央银行及其他政府机构所集中掌握并可以随时兑换成外国货币的外汇资产。 通常状态下，外汇储备的来源是贸易顺差和资本流入，集中到本国央行内形成外汇储备。
日元下跌的原因：The gap in interest rates between Japan and America is yawning. 美日利率差拉大 ，日本2月加息后between zero and 0.1%. 美国 more than five percentage points higher. 差距确实很大，看来日元只能硬抗，毕竟主动权在美国，美国如果降息也会导致美元贬值
日美对通货膨胀不同的态度：
日本：seem more concerned with hitting their inflation target than with using monetary policy to support the yen.想把通胀稳定在一定区间内
通货膨胀目标区间是指在特定时期特定经济体中，客观存在的能够保持国民经济持续、稳定、健康增长的通货膨胀率的上下限，通货膨胀率位于此区间中是可接受的，或者说可容忍的
美国：growing worries that inflation is not falling as it should and so the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates any time soon.想让通胀按预期下降
Given that Japan has an open capital account, an inevitable side-effect of its low relative interest rates is a weak currency.那就是哪怕拥有对外账户的日元购买力也变差了
本账户开放，又被称为资本项目自由化，不仅包括逐步放宽对跨境资本交易的限制，还包括取消与资本交易相关的外汇管制
疲软货币是指一个国家的货币与其他货币相比价值下降。疲软的货币通常被认为是经济基本面或治理体系较差的国家的货币。
After the last intervention, the relentlessness of economic logic was temporarily obscured by good luck. Towards the end of 2022 America's bond yields fell, allowing the yen to strengthen in the months that followed the intervention, before its slide resumed the next year. 那就是日本最后一次的干预还是有效的，但也是因为美国债券的收益率下降
日本政府干预的原因：a combination of political calculation and national pride.也是为了稳定民心吧，不然货币贬值老百姓的生活不好过了
02 No news is bad news
A plan to fund journalism with cash from big tech has become a fiasco看完整篇才知道这句话的意思，制定法律收割巨头公司的钱
The "news media bargaining code", passed in 2021, obliged Google and Facebook to pay news outlets when search results or social-media feeds linked to their articles.结果wrung more than $100m out of the two tech giants in its first year.于是很多国家效仿Brazil, Britain, Canada, South Africa and California have explored sirnilar measures.有赚就都开始了
Forcing one company to pay another for linking to its site undermines a basic principle of the internet, not to mention free speech. 新闻源可以设置收费，不然看不到不行吗？
Bargaining codes look uncomfortably like a shakedown （勒索）of foreign tech firms小编很敢说哈
Now the codes are backfiring. in Canada, which passed an Australian-style law last year, Google opened its chequebook again.But Facebook's parent cornpany, Meta, called the government's bluff and blocked news links from being shared on its platforms, rather than paying up. 加拿大效仿意大利，谷歌乖乖给钱，但是Facebook硬刚结果是真的不影响（笑死，这一波操作）
Some small sites, which rely on Facebook as their main means of distribution, have lost more than half their audience. 一些小媒体受到打击（感觉那种刚起步需要传播的，先不收费，会挺受影响的）
if governments want to subsidise ailing news organisations， they should be honest about it, rather than imposing a spurious duty to pay on a rnore successful industry. 让governments出钱和让其他巨头公司出钱差别还是很大的
04 A trillion-dollar arms race（军备竞赛）
Big tech's capex splurge may be irrationally exuberant科技巨头的投资过于疯狂
In recent weeks four tech giants- Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft have pledged to spend close to a total of $200bn this year, mostly on data centres, chips and other gear for building, training and deploying generative-AI models. That is 45% more than last year's blowout. 科技巨头们对新兴科技疯狂投资
Tech barons such as Meta's Mark Zuckerberg admit that it may be years before this investment generates returns. It ís an Al arms race.所以说军备竞赛是一场以年为单位的持久战
The tech giants are flush with cash-they can afford to splash out. But, if the past is any guide, a bust is coming and the firms carry such weight in the stockmarket that, should their overexcitement lead to overcapacity, the consequenceswould be huge.过多的投资，造成产能过多，如果市场不需要，就会是资金和资源的巨大浪费
例子：During the 1990S telecorns firms increased capital expenditure by three-and-a-half times and laid 600m km of cable, according to Morgan Stanley, believing that people would be willing to pay high fees to go online. But users thought the internet should be free电信公司的钱花了，电缆铺设了，但是市场并没有预期的效果，人们觉得应该免费
类比猜测：The tech giants' assumptions about people's willingness to pay for chatbots and other whizzy “gen-AI” tools may be just as misplaced.人们也不一定愿意为聊天机器人付费
All the signs are that big tech has succumbed to irrational exuberance有三种风险：
1：Runaway spending过度支出
Wall Street is already pencilling in expectations that the four firms' capex could come to an eye-popping $1trn over the next five years (Apple is taking a more cautious approach).苹果公司还是很谨慎的
2：models will be commodified模型将被修改
The cloud-computing "hyperscalers", namely Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, have built and invested in large proprietary AIs that are considered state-of-the-art. They also run smaller，open-source alternatives巨头们建云计算，运行开源项目，不断迭代就可能要修改模型。价格低廉的小模型会吞噬大模型的市场份额，导致投资大的项目回报低
3：scale brings diminishing returns.规模带来收益递减
On May 13th OpenAl launched a new version of its GPT4 model, called GPT-40. It is faster and its linguistic skills mean that you get more chat for your GPT. But it was not
the brand new GPT-5 that some wonks had hoped for. 可能是精进了，但是没有革命性的转变，所以没有太大惊喜
Fortunately, the damage to society at large is likely to be limited. As with railwaytracks and telecoms cables, overcapacity makes things cheaper.大公司烧钱也没啥超级不好的结果，东西可能会更便宜
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