BADM 574 GRD – Simulation and Risk AnalysisSpring 2019 Office Hours: 1.00 – 2.00 pm., 3.30 – 4.30 T/R.Class Details: 11.00 – 12.20 am., Tuesdays and Thursdays, BIF 2043.Course DescriptionThis course is around using analytic tools (simulation and decision analytics) to make betterdecisions. The focus will be on “hands-on” use of quantitative and statistical tools for solutionof management problems involving risk and uncertainty. The course is useful for students specializing inareas of business where it is important to combine quantitative analysis withbusiness judgment such as accounting, finance, marketing, information systems, operationsmanagement and supply chain management.Course Goals and ObjectivesThese include:(1) learning to use simulation and decision analytics tools suitable for modeling and solving complexmanagerial problems with risky outcomes, and(2) applying the analytical tools to realistic business contexts.Course Material:1. Go to http://probabilitytoolkit.com/purchase/#Probability-ToolKit-Student-Licenses and purchase“Probability ToolKit Student.” This package includes TreePlan and SimVoi.2. A laptop and Microsoft Excel installed.Grading:The course grade will be based on the following components, with weights shown:Class participation and quizzes 10%In-class work 25%Case studies 25%Midterm Exam: 20%Final Exam: 20%Class Participation:Attendance, quizzes and class participation are all important toward learning the material and willcount for grade.2In-class Work:Periodically we will work out exercises in class, further illustrating concepts. These will often entailthe use of software. This work must be completed in class and submitted by end of class period.Please bring your laptops to every class.Case Study Assignments:Approximately every other week, a case study will be assigned. These will require analytical treatment utilizingthe methods covered in class. You will have a week to complete the work and submit on Compass; latesubmissions will not be accepted.Midterm and Final Exam:These will be in-class, of an open-book format and will require the use of laptops. University rules inrespect of conduct at exams, of course, apply. Exams missed without justification (e.g. medicalemergency, university authorization) wil代做BADM 574 GRD作业、代写Risk Analysis作业、Java/C++程序语言作业代写、代做Pythonl result in zero credit; make-up exams will only be given foruniversity authorized exceptions.Special AccommodationsIf you have any condition, such as a physical or learning disability, which will make it difficultfor you to carry out the work outlined in this syllabus or which will require academicaccommodations, please get in touch with Disability Resources and Educational Services (DRES)website: http://www.disabi lity.uiuc.edu /.Academic IntegrityAcademic integrity is critical in order to maintain a fair atmosphere for learning. Sections I-401through 406 of the student code contains details of the university policy regarding academicintegrity and can be accessed at: http://www.admin.uiuc.edu /policy/code/article_ l /a l _ l - 40I.html. Penalties for violations range from a zero on the assignment to an F on the course.BIF Emergency ProceduresBecause BIF is not a designated tornado shelter, in the event of a tornado warning please seekshelter in the Wohlers Hall basement or the Armory (the nearest designated University tornadoshelters). If a tornado is imminent, the BIF basement stairwells can be used on an emergencybasis. In the event of a fire in BIF, exit BIF and proceed to 141 Wohlers Hall. In the event ofthreat from a shooter on campus, lock down the classroom and move to a place of safety withinthe classroom. If you encounter a suspicious package, do not touch the package, alert campussecurity, and refrain from cell phone usage until the situation is resolved. More detailedinformation and action instructions are available in the BIF Building Emergency Action Plan.3Tentative ScheduleNote: This is a tentative schedule; may be modified based on progress.Date Topic3/12 Decision Trees, modeling dependent uncertainties3/14 Decision Trees (contd.), modeling sequential decisions3/26 Risk aversion, utility functions3/28 Certainty Equivalent4/2 Value of perfect and imperfect information4/4 Using TreePlan4/9 Using TreePlan4/11 Midterm exam4/16 Uncertain quantities – discrete and continuous4/18 Modeling uncertain relationships in SimVoi4/23 Monte Carlo simulation using SimVoi4/25 Simulation using SimVoi (contd.) – business application4/30 Simulation using SimVoi (contd.) – business application5/3 Common Final Exam8.00 – 11.00 am2041 BIF4转自：http://www.7daixie.com/2019050556936511.html
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