世界银行本月公布了一项新的“人力资本”衡量排名，涵盖157个国家，综合了五项健康和教育指标来衡量如今出生的人可能会积累起多大的人力资本。世行希望这个指数能促使各国实施改革：它的模型认为，如果一个国家的人力资本分数翻了一倍，从长远来看，与这一分数保持不变的情形相比，该国的人均GDP会多一倍。
教育与医疗：未来人力资本的两大指标
人力资本
Human capital
励志的隐喻
A motivational metaphor
Two new rankings show which countries are raising the most productive humans
两项新排名显示哪些国家会培养出最具生产力的国民
DESPITE their dour reputation, economists frequently play with metaphor and simile, just like literary folk. One familiar example is “human capital”, as Deirdre McCloskey of the University of Illinois has pointed out. Economists have been likening knowledge, skill and stamina to physical capital, such as plant and equipment, since Adam Smith, who counted “the acquired and useful abilities” of a country’s people as one of several kinds of fixed capital, alongside “useful machines” and “profitable buildings”.
尽管经济学家以不苟言笑闻名，他们和文人雅士一样爱用比喻。伊利诺伊大学的迪尔德丽·麦克洛斯基（Deirdre McCloskey）曾指出，一个熟悉的例子是“人力资本”。亚当·斯密将一国民众“习得的有用能力”也算在几种固定资本之内，和“有用的机器”、“可盈利的建筑”放在了一道。自他之后，经济学家一直都将知识、技能以及精力比作像工厂和设备那样的有形资本。
But unlike poets, economists prefer to quantify their analogies—to measure whether thou art 15% or 20% more lovely and more temperate. In that spirit, the World Bank this month unveiled a new measure of human capital for 157 countries. Its index combines five indicators of health and education (including the chances of dying before the age of five and between the ages of 15 to 60, the chances of stunted growth, the years of education an average child will complete by age 18, and the score they can expect on school tests) to measure how much human capital a person born today is likely to accumulate. It follows a similar measure for 195 countries from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) published in the Lancet, a medical journal, in September.
但和诗人不同的是，经济学家更喜欢把自己的类比量化——弄清楚“你比春日更可爱温和”【译注：此句出自莎士比亚十四行诗】的程度是15%还是20%？本着这样的精神，世界银行本月公布了一项新的人力资本衡量排名，涵盖157个国家。其指数综合了五项健康和教育指标，来衡量如今出生的人可能会积累起多大的人力资本。它们包括：在5岁前死亡的概率、在15岁到60岁之间死亡的概率、发育迟缓的概率、普通孩子到18岁之前接受教育的年限，以及他们在学校测试中有望获得的分数。在这之前，健康指标和评估研究所（IHME）9月在医学杂志《柳叶刀》（Lancet）上发表了一个类似的排名，涵盖195个国家。
Both indices try to reflect the quality of education, not just the quantity. A growing number of countries now take part in initiatives like PISA, the Programme for International Student Assessment, which in 2015 tested pupils in 72 countries. With a little effort, these various measures can be rendered comparable. That allows researchers to calculate what a year of schooling is worth in different parts of the world. For example, the World Bank calculates that a year of education in South Africa is worth only about 60% as much as one in Singapore.
两个指数都试图反映教育的质量，而不仅仅是数量。如今有越来越多的国家参与国际学生评估项目（PISA）之类的项目，2015年有72个国家的学生接受了PISA测试。稍稍费些功夫就能在各种衡量标准中找出可比性，研究人员也就得以估算出一年的学校教育在世界不同的地方成效分别几何。例如，世行计算得出，在南非接受一年教育的效果大约只相当于在新加坡接受一年教育成效的60%。
Unsurprisingly, the correlation between the two indices is close (see chart). America ranks 24th on the World Bank’s new index, and 27th on the IHME’s. China ranks 46th on the first and 44th on the latter. But there are also notable discrepancies. On the bank’s index, Bangladesh does better than India, Vietnam better than Malaysia, and Britain better than France. None of that is true in the IHME’s rankings.
毫不意外，两个指数之间存在紧密的相关性（见图表）。美国在世行的指数中排名第24，在IHME的指数中排在第27。中国的排名分别为第46和44。但两者间也有显著的差异。在世行的指数中，孟加拉的名次优于印度，越南优于马来西亚，英国优于法国。而在IHME的指数中不是这样。
Different countries also stand at the top of the two tables. Singapore leads the bank’s ranking. But it lies 13th in the IHME index, which instead places Finland top. The divergence reflects two differences in approach. The World Bank’s method ignores higher education (which is even more prevalent in Finland than in Singapore). And its measures of health (stunting and survival rates) are too crude to distinguish between Singapore’s healthy population and Finland’s even healthier one.
在两项排名中居首的国家也不相同。新加坡在世行的排名中位列第一，但在IHME的指数中排名第13，第一是芬兰。这种差异源于两个指数在衡量方式上的两点不同。世行忽略高等教育（芬兰的高等教育普及率比新加坡还要高），而且它对健康状况的衡量（发育迟缓率和存活率）太过粗糙，无法在健康的新加坡人口和甚至还要更健康的芬兰人口之间做出区分。
The indices are not just exercises in measurement. They are also motivational tools. The World Bank worries that governments underinvest in human capital, because the rewards arrive painfully slowly and often without fanfare. By ranking countries, these indices may appeal to governments’ national pride and competitive spirit, much like the bank’s annual assessments of the ease of doing business around the world.
编制这两个指数不仅仅是为了做评估。它们还是种激励手段。世界银行担心各国政府对人力资本投资不足，因为这种投资收获回报的过程极其缓慢，通常也得不到大张旗鼓的宣传。通过为各国排定座次，这样的指数也许会唤起各国政府的民族自豪感和竞争意识，差不多就像世行每年对世界各国营商便利度的评估一样。
The two indices are also intended to be responsive to reforms. Although investments in human capital can take decades to pay off, countries will not have to wait as long to rise up the two league tables. Both indices are designed to be forward-looking, measuring the human capital that will be accumulated if a newborn grows up in the health and educational conditions prevailing now. For example, France’s decision to start mandatory schooling at age three will improve its ranking when the first toddlers are enrolled, long before the economy feels the benefit.
两个指数也积极将各国实施的改革考虑在内。虽然投资人力资本的成果可能要几十年才能显现，但各国并不是也得等个几十年才能在两个排名中提高名次。两个指数本身就都具前瞻性，估测的是一个新生儿若在当下普遍的健康及教育条件下成长起来，会积累多少人力资本。例如，法国决定将接受义务教育的年龄提早至三岁，等到第一个幼儿登记入学，法国的排名就会上升，大大早于该决定显现经济效益的时候。
The bank’s index offers a further prod to reform. It uses research on the economic returns to health and education to weight the components of its index according to their contribution to productivity. If a country doubles its human-capital score it should, in the long run, double its GDP per person, compared with a scenario where its score stayed the same. That prospect should make a government’s eyes widen.
世行的指数还会进一步促使各国实施改革。该指数利用健康和教育的经济效益方面的研究，根据各项指标对生产率的贡献来给它们加权。如果一个国家的人力资本分数翻了一倍，从长远来看，与这一分数毫无变化的情形相比，该国的人均GDP会多一倍。这样的前景应该会让各国政府大感震撼。
Unfortunately the index is still hobbled by gaps in the data and in economists’ understanding. The link between stunting and productivity, for example, remains murky. Only 65% of the world’s births are registered, as are only 38% of deaths. Many countries test their schoolchildren infrequently, if at all. If pupils are not tested until the age of 15, then any reform that helps primary-schoolers learn will not improve the country’s ranking until they grow old enough to ace the tests.
遗憾的是，世行的指数仍受限于数据不足以及经济学家理解上的欠缺。例如，发育迟缓和生产率之间存在怎样的关联仍旧很难说清。全世界只有65%的出生人口办理了登记，登记在册的死亡则只有38%。许多国家即使会对学生展开测验，也并不经常举行。如果一国的学生直到15岁才接受测试，那么任何帮助小学生学习的改革也不会提升该国的排名，直到这些孩子长到足够的年龄、在测试中取得了好成绩。
The World Bank has itself flagged these data shortcomings. It hopes the very existence of its index will motivate governments to collect the data the index needs if it is to work properly. To adapt another metaphor favoured by Ms McCloskey, the World Bank has built a sleek sports car; now it must shame governments into building roads that are worthy of it.
世行本身已提示数据存在缺陷。它希望这个指数的存在会激励各国政府去收集让指数正确发挥作用所需的数据。化用下麦克洛斯基喜欢的另一个比方，可以说世行造出了一辆拉风的跑车，现在它得激起各国政府的羞愧感，好让它们去修配得上这辆车的路。■
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