MAS6019 / MAS6061 Time Series ProjectAnalysis of Daily Temperatures in MelbourneA time series data set consisting of daily maximum temperatures (0C)in Melbourne can be found in the file TempMelb1. The data set covers aperiod of 1 January 1981 to 31 December 1990 and it is kindly providedfor educational use by the Time Series Data Library and the data providerDataMarket ( DataMarket.com ).Write a report on the data, concentrating on (a) describing their structureand (b) discussing time series modelling and forecasting. The report willaccount for 15% of the Semester 2 assessment of this module. For the deadlineof submission, consult the Course work schedule.Some comments/suggestions and notes on organisational matters follow(however, note that they are not mandatory). There is no page limit for thereport.Comments and suggestions1. A Box-Jenkins approach to part (a) of the question would use differencingto ensure stationarity. Model diagnostics can be used to ensurethat the model fit is acceptable. However, it has to be recognised thatdifferencing has limitations. You will find that differencing for a verylong seasonal cycle does not work in R. You will have to deal with thisissue in the project.2. In the light of (1), a direct approach of modelling, which does not needto rely on the differencing process, could be the use of an appropriatestate space model.3. To address forecasting you may decide to provide forecasts for timepointsin the end of the series. Another approach could be to split thedata in parts and forecast already known values pretending they werenot available to you initially.Notes on Procedures and your Report1. This is an assessed piece of work, so answers to questions about itmust be available to everyone equally. Any questions should thereforebe posted on the discussion board.1On the course web page MAS6019 Semester 2 MSc Project MOLE web page2. Distance Learners have not yet had the benefit of participating inMAS6005, so the criteria that are laid down for reports in MAS6005will not be applied here. In particular, there will be no explicit considerationof presentation issues in the assessment. Of course, what youpresent has to be intelligible, otherwise I cannot mark it.3. There is no page limit, but you need to use the space wisely. Very shortreports are not likely to cover the ground (especially with a few plots)and very long reports are likely to be repetitive.4. The body of the report should be in connected English, illustrated ifappropriate by suitable plots (though plots should appear only if theyare relevant to the argument and only if they are referred to explicitlyin the body of the report). The main body of the report should notcontain non-graphical software (e.g. R) output or jargon; you may putannotated software output in appendices if you think it is important tohave it on record.5. You should write the report as thought for an intelligent and statisticallytrainedreader (another MSc student for example) who knows the generaltechnical background of time series, but has not met these databefore, nor the software you use.6. The report should be self-contained; it should not call for calculationsor clairvoyance on the part of the reader.7. The report should be written so that the reader does not need to lookat appendices unless he/she wants to check something you have done.本团队核心人员组成主要包括BAT一线工程师，精通德英语！我们主要业务范围是代做编程大作业、课程设计等等。我们的方向领域：window编程 数值算法 AI人工智能 金融统计 计量分析 大数据 网络编程 WEB编程 通讯编程 游戏编程多媒体linux 外挂编程 程序API图像处理 嵌入式/单片机 数据库编程 控制台 进程与线程 网络安全 汇编语言 硬件编程 软件设计 工程标准规等。其中代写编程、代写程序、代写留学生程序作业语言或工具包括但不限于以下范围:C/C++/C#代写Java代写IT代写Python代写辅导编程作业Matlab代写Haskell代写Processing代写Linux环境搭建Rust代写Data Structure Assginment 数据结构代写MIPS代写Machine Learning 作业 代写Oracle/SQL/PostgreSQL/Pig 数据库代写/代做/辅导Web开发、网站开发、网站作业ASP.NET网站开发Finance Insurace Statistics统计、回归、迭代Prolog代写Computer Computational method代做因为专业，所以值得信赖。如有需要，请加QQ：99515681 或邮箱：99515681@qq.com 微信：codehelp QQ：99515681 或邮箱：99515681@qq.com 微信：codehelp
网友评论