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量化计算个人养老金到底值不值得交

量化计算个人养老金到底值不值得交

作者: EvineDeng | 来源:发表于2022-12-14 16:09 被阅读0次

    前言

    网上很多文章都在分析个人养老金到底值不值得交,许多文章得出的结论是个人所得税交至3%档及以下的不应该交,交至10%档的值得商榷,交至20%档及以上的值得交,但都没有给出量化的数据。为了来看看为什么得出这个结论,我采用了Excel的IRR函数来自动计算内部收益率,虽然和年化收益率不完全一样,但用来作为一个估计值,还是可以的。

    数据

    当前个人养老金制度的简要提一下:每年交12000元,可以享受个人所得税附加扣除,领取时需要交纳领取金额的3%的税。依靠这些数据提供给IRR函数,并算出IRR值,这里放出数据。

    交至10%个人所得税率档时,各预期理财收益率下的IRR数值

    存入年限 理财收益1% 理财收益2% 理财收益3% 理财收益4% 理财收益5%
    40 1.3437% 2.3282% 3.3149% 4.3036% 5.2941%
    39 1.3529% 2.3373% 3.3240% 4.3126% 5.3030%
    38 1.3625% 2.3470% 3.3336% 4.3222% 5.3125%
    37 1.3726% 2.3571% 3.3437% 4.3322% 5.3224%
    36 1.3833% 2.3678% 3.3544% 4.3428% 5.3329%
    35 1.3946% 2.3791% 3.3657% 4.3541% 5.3441%
    34 1.4065% 2.3911% 3.3777% 4.3660% 5.3559%
    33 1.4191% 2.4038% 3.3903% 4.3786% 5.3684%
    32 1.4325% 2.4173% 3.4038% 4.3921% 5.3818%
    31 1.4468% 2.4316% 3.4182% 4.4064% 5.3960%
    30 1.4619% 2.4468% 3.4334% 4.4216% 5.4112%
    29 1.4781% 2.4631% 3.4498% 4.4379% 5.4275%
    28 1.4954% 2.4805% 3.4672% 4.4554% 5.4449%
    27 1.5140% 2.4992% 3.4860% 4.4742% 5.4637%
    26 1.5140% 2.5193% 3.5061% 4.4943% 5.4838%
    25 1.5554% 2.5409% 3.5279% 4.5161% 5.5056%
    24 1.5786% 2.5643% 3.5514% 4.5397% 5.5292%
    23 1.6037% 2.5897% 3.5769% 4.5653% 5.5549%
    22 1.6311% 2.6173% 3.6047% 4.5932% 5.5828%
    21 1.6609% 2.6474% 3.6350% 4.6237% 5.6134%
    20 1.6936% 2.6804% 3.6682% 4.6571% 5.6469%
    19 1.7296% 2.7167% 3.7049% 4.6940% 5.6840%
    18 1.7694% 2.7569% 3.7454% 4.7348% 5.7250%
    17 1.8137% 2.8017% 3.7905% 4.7802% 5.7707%
    16 1.8632% 2.8517% 3.8410% 4.8311% 5.8219%
    15 1.9189% 2.9080% 3.8978% 4.8884% 5.8796%
    14 1.9821% 2.9719% 3.9624% 4.9535% 5.9452%
    13 2.0544% 3.0451% 4.0363% 5.0281% 6.0204%
    12 2.1380% 3.1295% 4.1216% 5.1143% 6.1074%
    11 2.2355% 3.2283% 4.2214% 5.2151% 6.2091%
    10 2.3510% 3.3451% 4.3396% 5.3344% 6.3297%
    9 2.4898% 3.4856% 4.4817% 5.4781% 6.4748%
    8 2.6599% 3.6577% 4.6558% 5.6541% 6.6527%
    7 2.8729% 3.8734% 4.8740% 5.8748% 6.8758%
    6 3.1477% 4.1516% 5.1556% 6.1597% 7.1640%
    5 3.5156% 4.5242% 5.5327% 6.5414% 7.5501%
    4 4.0337% 5.0488% 6.0639% 7.0790% 8.0942%
    3 4.8173% 5.8424% 6.8676% 7.8926% 8.9177%
    2 6.1409% 7.1831% 8.2253% 9.2675% 10.3096%
    1 8.8556% 9.9333% 11.0111% 12.0889% 13.1667%

    交至20%个人所得税率档时,各预期理财收益率下的IRR数值

    存入年限 理财收益1% 理财收益2% 理财收益3% 理财收益4% 理财收益5%
    40 1.8730% 2.8350% 3.8025% 4.7749% 5.7517%
    39 1.8963% 2.8583% 3.8257% 4.7979% 5.7744%
    38 1.9207% 2.8828% 3.8502% 4.8222% 5.7984%
    37 1.9465% 2.9087% 3.8759% 4.8478% 5.8238%
    36 1.9737% 2.9359% 3.9031% 4.8748% 5.8506%
    35 2.0024% 2.9647% 3.9319% 4.9034% 5.8790%
    34 2.0327% 2.9952% 3.9623% 4.9338% 5.9091%
    33 2.0649% 3.0275% 3.9946% 4.9660% 5.9411%
    32 2.0990% 3.0618% 4.0290% 5.0002% 5.9751%
    31 2.1353% 3.0983% 4.0655% 5.0366% 6.0114%
    30 2.1740% 3.1371% 4.1044% 5.0755% 6.0501%
    29 2.2152% 3.1786% 4.1460% 5.1171% 6.0916%
    28 2.2594% 3.2230% 4.1906% 5.1617% 6.1361%
    27 2.3067% 3.2707% 4.2384% 5.2095% 6.1839%
    26 2.3067% 3.3219% 4.2898% 5.2610% 6.2353%
    25 2.4123% 3.3771% 4.3453% 5.3166% 6.2910%
    24 2.4716% 3.4368% 4.4053% 5.3768% 6.3512%
    23 2.5358% 3.5016% 4.4705% 5.4422% 6.4167%
    22 2.6057% 3.5721% 4.5414% 5.5134% 6.4881%
    21 2.6821% 3.6491% 4.6189% 5.5913% 6.5663%
    20 2.7658% 3.7336% 4.7040% 5.6769% 6.6521%
    19 2.8580% 3.8266% 4.7977% 5.7712% 6.7469%
    18 2.9600% 3.9296% 4.9016% 5.8757% 6.8519%
    17 3.0735% 4.0443% 5.0172% 5.9921% 6.9690%
    16 3.2006% 4.1727% 5.1467% 6.1226% 7.1003%
    15 3.3439% 4.3174% 5.2927% 6.2698% 7.2486%
    14 3.5065% 4.4818% 5.4587% 6.4372% 7.4172%
    13 3.6929% 4.6701% 5.6489% 6.6291% 7.6106%
    12 3.9084% 4.8881% 5.8690% 6.8513% 7.8347%
    11 4.1607% 5.1432% 6.1268% 7.1115% 8.0973%
    10 4.4598% 5.4457% 6.4326% 7.4204% 8.4092%
    9 4.8204% 5.8104% 6.8013% 7.7930% 8.7854%
    8 5.2633% 6.2585% 7.2544% 8.2509% 9.2481%
    7 5.8204% 6.8222% 7.8246% 8.8274% 9.8307%
    6 6.5424% 7.5530% 8.5638% 9.5750% 10.5865%
    5 7.5153% 8.5377% 9.5602% 10.5829% 11.6058%
    4 8.8972% 9.9366% 10.9760% 12.0154% 13.0548%
    3 11.0145% 12.0802% 13.1458% 14.2114% 15.2768%
    2 14.6662% 15.7780% 16.8897% 18.0012% 19.1126%
    1 22.4625% 23.6750% 24.8875% 26.1000% 27.3125%
    交至10%个人所得税率档时,各预期理财收益率下的IRR图像 交至20%个人所得税率档时,各预期理财收益率下的IRR图像

    简要的分析

    1. IRR值受个人养老金理财收益率影响较大;

    2. 个人所得税交至20%档时基于理财收益率之上的额外的收益率,要比个人所得税交至10%档的高0.5%-5%;

    3. 交的年限越少,IRR值越高。

    原文件

    这里提供Excel原文件供有需要的人自行查阅。如下图所示,下载文件后只需要选择“存储年限”和“理财预期收益”两个选项即可。下载链接:阿里云盘

    只需要选择“存储年限”和“理财预期收益”两个选项

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