WSJ-0203-China Must Clearly Comm

2/3/2016-1

原文链接：

http://www.wsj.com/articles/lew-china-must-clearly-communicate-currency-policies-to-markets-1454511228

Lew: China Must Clearly Communicate Currency Policies to Markets

WASHINGTON—U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew urged Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang late Tuesday to ensure Beijing’s transition to a market-determined exchange rate is “orderly and transparent,” and said authorities need to clearly communicate their policies and actions to markets.

Mr. Lew’s comments, made in a phone call Tuesday night, came as China’s mixed messages on currency policy have spurred global market turmoil.Investors are eyeing China’s yuan policy as a signal of whether growth in the world’s second-largest economy might be stalling(停住).

“Secretary Lew and Vice Premier Wang continued their discussion on the importance of China making its transition to a market-determined exchange rate in anorderly and transparent way, whileclearly communicatingits policies and actions to the market,” the U.S. Treasury said Wednesday.

China has said it is transitioning the yuan awayfrom a dollar peg, allowinggreater market influenceon the currency’s value. It has also said it intends totarget a basket of currencies. Last year, China’ssurprise 2% devaluationspooked(惊吓)investors, who initially thought themove was the beginning of larger devaluation and a last-ditch(无退路的)effort to stimulate a decelerating(减速的)economy. Chinese officials have since sought toclarify their policies, but the yuan’s value and questions about Beijing’s true intent have left many investors wary(谨慎的)and markets on edge(紧张).

Chinese officials have in recent weeks said the government recognizes the need forclearer communicationin order to avoid roiling(搅浑)global markets.

At a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland last month,IMFManaging DirectorChristine Lagardesuggested the need for better communication, saying it would be helpful for China in managing its current economic transition.

“We should do a better job,” Fang Xinghai, a senior economic adviser to the Chinese leadership, said on the panel. “We’re learning and doing it. I’m here to communicate.”

Many economists say the fate of the global economy hangs on whether China cansmoothly transition from a credit-fueled, export-led model to one based more on domestic consumption, including managing a dangerous buildup of debt and overcapacity. That policy overhaul(翻修)is needed to ensure the country can continue to grow at healthy rates, helping to drive global growth instead of sap(衰竭)output around the world.

“Secretary Lew reiterated(反复的)the importance ofChina supporting householdincome and rebalancing towardsconsumption-led growth, including throughappropriate fiscal policies,” Treasury said. “Secretary Lew expressed confidence that if China implements the reforms it has set out, it has the necessary tools tosupport domestic demand and succeed in this economic transition(过渡).”

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文章大意：

中国现在正在由fixed exchange rate过渡到flexible exchange rate,某些牛人觉得我国需要将该policy更清晰传达给广大民众，并且提出中国经济发展对全球经济发展的重要性，以及将市场转变成consumption-led growth型经济的必要性。

个人感受：

一个国家的经济政策带来的影响真大啊……不知道。想要变成consumption-led growth的经济，首先要让民众有信心吧，让民众有信心以及有一个efficient market，政府clearly communicate its policy就至关重要吧。

相关知识：

Exchange Rate System

Fixed Exchange Rate: (peg)

定义：一个国家把自己的货币跟某国家（如美国）或某几个国家（这我不知是咋弄的）挂钩，如无大事儿就一直粘着人家。比如决定1美元换6rmb，一直保持不变。

实现方法：central bank介入市场，通过增加及减少money supply来控制市场上货币流通量，从而影响interest rate，从而保持汇率不变。

好处：短期内维持市场稳定性？因为投资者知道自己投资到本地市场的价值（汇率已知），因此更放心大胆投资。

坏处：central bank需要有大量金钱储备来满足维持fixed rate.但当本国货币比起规定汇率更不值钱的时候，若广大民众知道此消息就会跑去银行换外汇，（因为知道持有的本国货币是垃圾），这样银行就很快run out of reserve。当reserve不足，fixed exchange rate崩。（索罗斯好像用了这个方法来怎么着的，叫做speculative attack，就是他知道当时某国的货币实际价值很低，就大量换外汇，逼到银行无路可退最终只可以宣布devaluation,他的目的就达到了。其他忘记了）

Flexible Exchange Rate:

完全由市场的决定exchange rate.

应该就是文中的market-determined exchange rate

Devaluation

专指有fixed exchange rate system的central bank（or政府？）刻意将货币贬值的行为

句子理解与疑惑：

第二段

Investors are eyeing China’s yuan policy as a signal of whether growth in the world’s second-largest economy might be stalling

为什么从中国的policy就能看出来中国经济状况，咋看的？

第四段

Last year, China’s surprise 2% devaluation spooked(惊吓) investors, who initially thought the move was the beginning of larger devaluation and a last-ditch(无退路的) effort to stimulate a decelerating(减速的) economy. Chinese officials have since sought to clarify their policies, but the yuan’s value and questions about Beijing’s true intent have left many investors wary(谨慎的) and markets on edge(紧张).

去年中国可以将货币贬值，让investor人为这是针对刺激减速经济的最后一道防线。我的理解是因为devaluation可以刺激出口，打击进口，促进本土企业发展，增加aggregate demand/gdp，是这意思？

会吓到investor的原因是不是因为investment中exchange rate至关重要？

但是其实这并不是devaluation，而是中国决定采用flexible exchange rate所以导致的结果？

为毛改成flexible exchange rate民众就不害怕了？

第八段

Many economists say the fate of the global economy hangs on whether China cansmoothly transition from a credit-fueled, export-led model to one based more on domestic consumption, including managing a dangerous buildup of debt and overcapacity. That policy overhaul(翻修)is needed to ensure the country can continue to grow at healthy rates, helping to drive global growth instead of sap(衰竭)output around the world.

现在中国的状况是借贷很多，出口导向型。但是很多人认为世界经济的发展取决于中国是否可以更多based on domestic consumption (就是gdp里面的C-Cm)，更好地管理debt和overcapacity。（为什么？）

中国现在咋就不能drive global growth，咋就会sap output around the world，咋就不healthy了？

第九段

“Secretary Lew reiterated(反复的)the importance ofChina supporting householdincome and rebalancing towardsconsumption-led growth, including throughappropriate fiscal policies,” Treasury said. “Secretary Lew expressed confidence that if China implements the reforms it has set out, it has the necessary tools to support domestic demand and succeed in this economic transition(过渡).”

运用fiscal policy（改变税收/改变government spending）来support household income/rebalancing towards consumption-led growth

如何做到？如果fiscal policy让aggregate demand增加，市场unemployment rate减少，是否增加民众信心，于是就刺激购买行为？这意思吗？

完全不懂了现在不是在说改变exchange rate的事情吗关这个啥事儿？最后一句话，reform指的是exchange rate system?transition指什么？过渡到consumption-led?