A big blast should lead to big change
大爆炸应当会带来大变动
So powerful was the explosion that rocked Beirut on August 4th that people in Cyprus, 240km (150 miles) away, thought they had suffered an earthquake. Scores of people died and thousands were injured in the blast, which left the port in ruins. The Lebanese government says it was caused by 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, which can be used as fertiliser or as an explosive (see Middle East & Africa section). This appears to have been confiscated years ago from an abandoned Russian-owned cargo ship heading to Mozambique. Customs officials proposed exporting the stuff, giving it to the army or selling it to an explosives company—but they needed the judiciary’s approval. Their repeated requests were met with silence. So the material sat in a warehouse at the port。
8.4号发生在贝鲁特的爆炸威力是如此之大，以至于240公里外的人们都认为自己遭受了地震。爆炸导致数十人死亡，数千人受伤。爆炸所在的港口被夷为平地。黎巴嫩政府说这是2750吨硝酸铵导致的，硝酸铵可以被用来制造肥料或者是炸弹。这似乎是几年前从一艘开往莫桑比克的俄罗斯废船上收缴的。海关政府提议出口这些材料，交给军队或者是卖给武器公司，但是他们需要得到司法部门的允许。他们的一再请求被漠视。所以这些材料存储在港口的仓库中。
What kind of government leaves a mountain of explosive chemicals lying around unsafely for the better part of a decade? The same kind that cannot agree on a budget for 11 years and that let its central bank run a Ponzi scheme to defend its unrealistic currency peg. The kind which is so deluded that it relies on aid, loans and remittances, spending far more than it collects in taxes. The kind that is controlled by an out-of-touch elite who fiddle and extort while the economy burns. In short, it is the government of Lebanon—and it is in desperate need of reform.
什么样的政府才会让山一样多的爆炸物堆放在不安全的地方近10年？同样，他们11年没有就预算达成一致，并且让央行操作庞氏骗局去和他们不切实际的货币挂钩。他们是如此的荒谬，他们依赖援助、贷款和汇款，花费远远超过税收。这是由高层精英操控的，在经济萧条的时候他们玩弄手段和欺骗。简而言之，这就是黎巴嫩政府的现状，并且急需改革。
That much was clear even before the explosion showered Beirut with broken glass and pieces of rubble. For months Lebanon has been mired in a debilitating economic crisis, because of a rotten banking sector and a collapsing currency (see Middle East & Africa section). The Lebanese pound has lost about 80% of its value on the black market against the dollar. Because Lebanon imports so much, inflation has spiked. The government defaulted on its debts months ago. The economy was weak before covid-19 forced politicians to lock down the country for two months earlier this year. Now it is in a coma. The poverty rate is expected to rise from 45% in 2019 to more than 75% by the end of this year. Many businesses have gone bust. Those that reopened had to close again recently because of a new surge of infections.
这一点，在爆炸引起的玻璃碎片和碎石砸落在 Beirut 之前就很清楚了。几个月来，因为银行的腐败以及货币的崩溃，黎巴嫩已经陷入了经济危机。在黑市上，黎巴嫩货币已经相对美元贬值了80% 。由于黎巴嫩进口太多，通过膨胀很严重。政府在几个月前违约了债务。在今年政界因新冠被迫封国的2个月之前，经济一直很疲弱。现在它处于休克状态。今年年底，贫困率预计将从2019年的45%上升到75%。很多企业都破产了。由于疫情的反弹，一些重新开放的企业被迫再次关门。
Without answers, the government asked the imf for help. The fund wants a modest show of good faith, such as a new law on capital controls or a reform of the loss-making electricity industry. But Lebanese officials cannot even agree on the severity of the crisis. They have spent weeks bickering over how to estimate the losses racked up by the central bank. imf officials have looked on with dismay. Even some in the government have had enough. On August 3rd the foreign minister quit, saying that Lebanon risks becoming a failed state. “I participated in this government on the basis that I have one employer named Lebanon,” Nassif Hitti wrote in his resignation letter, “and I found in my country many employers and conflicting interests.”
没有任何答案，这个政府向国际基金会请求援助。基金会想要看到一个基本的诚意展示，比如一个资本控制的新法律或者是对亏损的电力行业进行改革。但是黎巴嫩政府甚至无法就危机程度达成一致。他们已经花费了几个星期去争辩如何估计央行的累计损失。国际基金会的官员们失望的看着他们。甚至政府的一些人都受够了。在八月3日，外交部长辞职了，表示黎巴嫩面临着成为一个失败国家的风险。Nassif Hitti 在他的辞职信中说：“我之所以参加政府工作，是因为我有一个叫做黎巴嫩的雇主，但现在我发现在我的国家里面有很多雇主和利益冲突”
It is a new way of describing an old problem. For decades Lebanon has carved up political power among its religions and sects as a device for keeping the peace between them. Though designed to ensure that all Lebanese have a say in government, the system has been captured by an entrenched elite. This elite hands out government jobs based on sect. With power guaranteed, it can plunder ministries. The waste associated with its patronage schemes costs Lebanon 9% of gdp each year, says the World Bank. Corruption is rife. Residents of Beirut note that the explosion occurred in the city’s port, known locally as the “cave of Ali Baba and the 40 thieves”, owing to allegations of theft, bribery and embezzlement at the government-owned facility.
这是遗留问题新的表现形式。几十年来，黎巴嫩的政治权利被宗教和派系瓜分，为了维系他们之间的平衡。尽管这种设计是为了保证所有人在政府都有发言权，但这个系统已经被根深蒂固的精英们把持。这些精英们根据宗教排分政府职位。在权势得到保障的情况下，他们可以抢夺政府部门。世界银行说，每年与任免权相关的浪费占到黎巴嫩政府GDP的9% 。腐败盛行！发生爆炸的这个港口的居民指出，当地称之为“阿里巴巴和四十大盗的洞穴”，因为政府拥有的产业被指控盗窃、贿赂和贪污。
Most Lebanese want to ditch the power-sharing system. Ever fewer feel defined by their religion. (A growing number are not devout at all.) Big protests in October forced out the previous government, which was also incompetent. The current one entered office promising change, but has accomplished little
大多数的黎巴嫩人希望放弃权力分享制度。越来越少的人觉得自己被他们的宗教代表。（不信教的人数正在增长）10月份的大规模抗议迫使同样无能的政府下台了。现任总统上任时承诺改变，但目前收效甚微。
That is, in part, because interests stand in the way. The warlords who wrecked Lebanon in the civil war are now the politicians who steal from it. Groups such as Hizbullah, a Shia militiacum-political party, face few constraints. Foreign powers, such as Iran, which backs Hizbullah, and Saudi Arabia, which backs the Sunni elite, would surely try to scuttle reforms that diminished their clients or benefited their rivals
这在一定程度上是因为利益当道。内战时曾破坏国家的军阀现在成为了偷窃国家的政客。Hizbullah 和 Shia 这样的组织几乎没有任何约束。境外势力，比如伊朗是Hizbullah 的背后支持者，沙特是Sunni 背后的支持者，肯定会尽力阻挠削弱自己或者使对手受益的改革。
They all play on fears of a sectarian powerstruggle that might leave some groups worse off—or sink the country back into violence. The magnitude of the explosion at the port called to mind the massive car-bomb that killed the prime minister, Rafik Hariri, a Sunni, in 2005. A un-backed court is due to deliver a verdict later this month in the case of four Hizbullah members accused of his assassination
他们都在担心宗教权力斗争可能使一些团体恶化，或者使国家再次陷入动乱。港口的爆炸规模让人想起了2005年时，大规模汽车炸弹杀害 Sunni 派首相 Rafik Hariri 。独立法院将会在本月晚些时后对 4 个 Hizbullah派人士的暗杀指控进行判决。
There was a time when such fears seemed like a good reason to move slowly in unpicking the power-sharing system. But those in power are using the crisis to hook more of their followers on the handouts they provide. And the cost of moving slowly is increasingly clear. It was not fighting or foreign occupation that led to the destruction of a large part of Beirut. It was incompetence by a corrupt and broken state. Only bold action will fix it. The government should do away with the power-sharing system sooner rather than later, and replace it with something more democratic and meritocratic.
曾经有一段时间，这种担忧看起来是一个缓慢取消权力共享系统的好理由。但是，当权者正在利用这次危机让更多的追随者依赖于他们提供的救济。行动迟缓的代价越来越明显。导致 Beirut 大片被毁的不是战争或者异族入侵。这是一个腐败破败的无能政府。只有激进的行动才能解决这个问题 。政府需要尽可能快的废除权力共享系统，并使用更民主精英的制度替换。
以上来自经济学人，不代表本人观点，仅作学习使用。如有侵权，请联系删除。
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