“据说研习天文，可以让人谦卑，塑造人心，磨炼个性，也许再没有更好的方法能比这遥远的画面更好地显示出人类的自负与愚蠢。”
一文讲清楚什么是庄家与散户发出以后，有人问我什么是趋势，在我看来并没有那么神秘莫测，趋势就是事物变化的规律，要了解趋势就要从最基础的开始，格物，致知。
每一个交警叔叔都是哲学家，因为他们每拦下一个人就问，你是谁？你从哪里来？你要到哪里去？我们就从这里开始。
01
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The Pale Bule Dot 苍蓝小点
Pale Blue Dot 苍蓝小点
1990年2月14日当旅行者1号太空探测器完成第一阶段的探测任务，即将飞出太阳系的时候，卡尔·萨根说服美国宇航局让旅行者1号调转相机，从64亿公里(约40亿英里)之外最后回望一眼自己的家园。照片中，地球是一个不足一个像素大小的圆点，看上去是硕大的宇宙里，摄像头反射的光线中的一个小点。（下图黄圈处）
Pale Blue Dot is a photograph of planet Earth taken on February 14, 1990, by the Voyager 1 space probe which had completed its primary mission and was leaving the Solar System. Karl Sagen persuade NASA to turn its camera and take one last photograph of Earth across a record distance of about 6 billion kilometers (3.7 billion miles, 40.5 AU). In the photograph, Earth's apparent size is less than a pixel; the planet appears as a tiny dot against the vastness of space, among bands of sunlight reflected by the camera.（hilighted with yellow circle)
Pale Blue Dot 苍蓝小点
故事是这样的
Here is the story.
1977年9月，美国宇航局发射了旅行者1号，一个722公斤的机器宇宙飞船，任务是研究外太阳系并最终研究星际空间。到今天为止，已经运行了41年，1个月21天。
In September 1977, NASA launched Voyager 1, a 722-kilogram (1,592 lb) robotic spacecraft on a mission to study the outer Solar System and eventually interstellar space.Voyager 1 is operating for 41 years, 1 month and 21 days as of today (25 October 2018).
当1980年旅行者1号经过土星的时候，卡尔·萨根提出来拍摄地球最后一张照片的想法。他承认这样的一幅图并没有科研价值，因为地球太小，旅行者1号的摄像头拍不到任何细节，但是从我们地球在宇宙中的视角看是很有意义的。
When the spacecraft passed the Satum in 1980, Sagan proposed the idea of the space probe taking one last picture of Earth.He acknowledged that such a picture would not have had much scientific value, as the Earth would appear too small for Voyager's cameras to make out any detail, but it would be meaningful as a perspective on our place in the universe.
直到1989年萨根的想法被付诸执行。在1990年三月到五月期间，旅行者1号的无线信号以光速传播了5个半小时,传回60幅图片到地球。
It was not until 1989 that Sagan's idea was put into practice.Between March and May 1990, Voyager 1 returned 60 frames back to Earth, with the radio signal travelling at the speed of light for nearly five and a half hours to cover the distance.
拍摄位置 Photo shooting position
由里到外依次是太阳，水星，金星，地球，火星，木星，土星，天王星，冥王星。
From the inner to the outer is Sun, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Satum, Uranus, Neptune.
旅行者1号的成像科学子系统由两个摄像头组成，一个200毫米焦距的低分辨率广角摄像头，用来拍摄广角图像；一个1500毫米高分辨率狭角摄像头，用来拍摄具体目标，就是用这个拍的苍蓝小点。两个摄像头都是慢速扫描真空影象感应管，在管子前面的轮子上配置了8个彩色滤镜。
Voyager 1's Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) consisted of two cameras: a 200 mm focal length, low-resolution wide-angle camera (WA), used for spatially extended imaging, and a 1500 mm high-resolution narrow-angle camera (NA) – the one that took Pale Blue Dot – intended for detailed imaging of specific targets. Both cameras were of the slow-scan vidicontube type and were fitted with eight colored filters, mounted on a filter wheel placed in front of the tube.
其中三幅图显示了地球就是悬在太空的一个小点，每一幅图都用了不同颜色的滤镜，蓝色，绿色和紫色，经计算得出的曝光时间分别是0.72秒，0.48秒，0.72秒。三幅图重新组合成了今天的苍蓝小点。
Three of the frames received showed the Earth as a tiny point of light in empty space. Each frame had been taken using a different color filter: blue, green and violet, with calculated exposure times of 0.72, 0.48 and 0.72 seconds respectively. The three frames were then recombined to produce the image that became Pale Blue Dot.
02
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That's home, that's us那是家园，那是我们
如果细心看，你会发现一个小点。就在这里，那是我们的家园，那是我们。在这个小点上，每个你爱的人、每个你认识的人、每个你曾经听过的人，以及每个曾经存在的人，都在那里过完一生。这里集合了一切的欢喜与苦难，数千个自信的宗教、意识形态以及经济学说，每个猎人和搜寻者、每个英雄和懦夫、每个文明的创造者与毁灭者、每个国王与农夫、每对相恋中的年轻爱侣、每个充满希望的孩子、每对父母、发明家和探险家，每个教授道德的老师、每个贪污政客、每个超级巨星、每个至高无上的领袖、每个人类历史上的圣人与罪人，都住在这里 —— 一粒悬浮在阳光下的微尘。
if you look at it, you see a dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives. The aggregate of all our joys and sufferings, thousands of confident religions, ideologies and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilizations, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every hopeful child, every mother and father, every inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every superstar, every supreme leader, every saint and sinner in the history of our species, lived there on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam.
地球是在这个浩翰宇宙剧院里的一个细小舞台。想想那些将领们和皇帝们流出的血河，他们的光荣与胜利只为了让他们成为了这一点上一小部分的短暂主宰。想想一个像素点的某个角落的栖息者，每天把那无尽的残酷施加到与他们没什么区别的另一个角落的栖息者身上。他们有多频繁发生误解？他们有多渴望杀害另一方？他们的敌意有多强？我们的装模作样，我们的自以为是，我们的错觉以为自己在宇宙里的位置有多优越，通通都被这暗淡的光点所挑战。
The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of the dot on scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner of the dot. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light.
我们的星球只是在这被漆黑包裹的宇宙里一粒孤单的微粒而已。 我们是如此的不起眼，在这浩瀚之中，我们不会从任何地方得到提示去拯救我们。一切取决于我们自己。
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity – in all this vastness – there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us.
地球是目前已知存在生命的唯一星球。至少在不远的将来，人类还无法迁居到别的地方。访问是可以办到的，定居还不可能。不管你是否喜欢，就目前来说，地球还是我们生存的地方。
The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand.
据说研习天文，可以让人谦卑，塑造人心，磨炼个性，也许再没有更好的方法能比这遥远的画面更好地显示出人类的自负与愚蠢。对我而言，它强调了我们的责任，要对人更友善，懂得珍惜与爱护，这泛着苍白蓝光的小点是我们知道的唯一的家园。
It's been said that astronomy is a humbling, and I might add, a character-building experience. To my mind, there is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly and compassionately with one another and to preserve and cherish that pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.
03
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Five simple rules 5条简单规则
我们，在这一粒微尘上居住的渺小生物，是如何千方百计地把宇宙飞船送入银河系的星星之间？就在几世纪以前，也就是宇宙历中的几秒时间，我们尚不知道自己身在何方，何时。对宇宙的其他部分一无所知。我们身居囚笼，一个小宇宙里，困在坚壳之中。我们是如何逃出囚笼？是因为世世代代探索者的不懈努力，他们发自内心地遵从五条简单规则：
How did we tiny creatures living on that speck of dust, ever manage to figure out how to send spacecraft out among the stars of the Milky Way? Only a few centuries ago, a mere second of cosmic time, we knew nothing of where or when we are. Oblivious to the rest of the cosmos. We inhibated a kind of prison, a tiny universe, bounded by a nustshell. How did we escape from the prison? It was the work of generations of searchers, who took five simple rules to heart :
1、质疑权威。
Question authority.
不轻信人言，包括自己在内
No idea is true just because someone says so,including me.
2、独立思考。
Think for yourself.
3、自我质疑。
Question yourself.
不因自己想要相信 而相信任何事情，相信不代表能成为现实。
Don't believe anything just because you want to.Believing something doesn't make it so.
4、依靠观察与实验，以实证检验想法。
Test ideas by the evidence gained from observation and experiment.
如果自己喜欢的想法没有通过全面的检验，它就是错的。乐观一点，遵循证据 无论它指向哪里，如果没有证据 不妄下定论。
If a favorite idea fails a well-designed test, it's wrong! Get over it. Follow the evidence, wherever it leads. If you have no evidence, reserve judgment.
5、也许最重要的规则就是，要记住 你也会犯错。
And perhaps the most important rule of all...Remember, you could be wrong.
即使是最优秀的科学家，也曾经在某些事情上犯错，牛顿 爱因斯坦，还有历史上每一位伟大的科学家，他们都犯过错，这很正常 是人都会犯错。科学让我们不再欺骗自己，欺骗别人。
Even the best scientists have been wrong about some things. Newton, Einstein, and every other great scientist in history, they all made mistakes.
Of course they did-- they were human. Science is a way to keep fooling ourselves, and each other.
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