Risk Mangement

1932 The American Risk and Insurance (保险) Association (协会) is established.

1963 Robert Mehr and Bod Hedges publish Risk Management in the Business Enterprise, claiming that the objective (目标) of risk management is to maximize (最大化) a company's productive efficiency.

管控风险的目标就是最大化公司的产品效率。

效率=产出/投入

1.我的投入不变，我的回报增加

2.两者都增加，产出增加

北极熊和熊猫的对比                                              少看外部，多内部思考

The strong can do what they can; the weak suffer what they must.

1970s Inflation (通货膨胀) and changes to the international monetary (货币的) system (the ending of the Bretton Woods agreement (布雷顿森林体系) ) increase commercial risks.

上世纪70年代：

1.通货膨胀  2. 货币体系

1987 Merrill Lynch (美林银行) becomes the first bank to open a risk-management department.

2011 The US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission says that the 2008 financial crisis was caused partly by financial companies "taking on too much risk (负担了过多的风险)."

会做一个portfolio，风险均衡，扩大回报。

Toxic assets (有毒资产)

Financial derivatives (金融衍生品)

Swap (交换)

Great Depression (大萧条)

Bond (债券)

Triple-A (最好的资产)

Default (拖欠)

Book：Too Big to Fail

Black swan (黑天鹅事件)（ 事件发生的概率非常小）

Actuary (精算师)

Gaming industry (博彩行业)

Casino industry (赌场行业)

Polar bear (北极熊)

The Butterfly Effect (蝴蝶效应)

Portfolio (投资组合)

Entrepreneurs are defined by their willingness to bear risk (承担风险) — particularly the risk of business failure.

面对风险的时候有两类人：Different mentality (不一样的心态)

risk aversion：风险规避型

risk-taking: 风险接纳型

This is especially true for those starting new companies, because more than half of start-ups fail within the first five years.

（一半公司五年内就知道存活了）

Lesser risks in established businesses include the possible failure of new products, or damage to the brand or a manager's reputation.

Whatever the level or type, however, risk is something that all businesses need to be aware of (有意识) and manage carefully.

风险管理的时候，心态要对。大多数人在做决定的之前都会经历一个比较痛苦的纠结过程当中，因为人的本能就是在计算风险，但是你事前去做这个预测，你占有的信息就会非常的重要，你的信息越多，越准确，那么自然而然后面做判断的时候相对就会快一点，犹豫少一点。

列出来，分析利弊，同时可以问一下有经验的人，请教一下他人的意见。

Toss a coin (掷硬币)

Pros and cons (利弊)

Downside N.(负面)

Whistle-blower (告密者)

Andrew Carnegie was pondering (琢磨) these issues when he suggested that in terms of managing risk, it might be the best to put all you eggs in one basket, then watch that basket.

所有的资产聚合，我聚合的东西安全，那么就不会有事。

前提：相关风险的原因我都可以掌控！

Risk is an inevitable (不可避免的) part of business.

But it can be quantified (定量) and action taken . . .（我到底面临的风险多大，我造成的损失会有多少？然后再采取行动）

HOW：1. through oversight (监管)  2.good management.

Part of this process involves deciding what level of risk is "acceptable".

你一定要思考什么样的风险程度是你可接受的。

And where to place the risk — on all the "eggs in the basket," or just one?

Managing risk is a strategic process, balancing cost against reward.

From the collapse of Lehman Brothers (2008), to BP's (英国石油公司) Deepwater Horizon disaster (2010), events of the early 21st century fundamentally changed how organizations perceive risk.

Companies now think in terms of two factors: oversight and management.

PDCA — Plan-Do-Check-Action

"Risk oversight" is how a company's owners govern the processes for identifying, prioritizing, and managing critical risks, and for ensuring that these processes are continually reviewed.

识别问题，重要级的排列，管控，流程是否有问题

"Risk oversight" refers to the detailed procedures and policies for avoiding or reducing risks.

你在市场上，就会有风险，所以你得调节自己的心态。其次知道风险，就要分析风险，你越早的去了解，得到更多，更准确的信息，那么面对风险，更能从容的去面对风险。在整体运营中，我们要监控风险，在知道风险的情况下，给风险进行排序，先处理最迫切的事情，所有过程都不能掉以轻心,同时我们要管理风险。

The business risk is inevitable in the market that we have to adjust our mentality.Analyzing risk earlier to get the accurater informatation can help the companies to get the proprities in dealing with the risks. We need to oversight and manage the risk. In these processes, the identifying, prioritizing,and managing should be continually reveiwed.

Risk is inherent (内在的) in all business activity.

Start-ups, for example, face the risk of too few customers, and therefore insufficient (不足的) revenue to cover costs.

There is also the risk that a competitor will copy the company's idea, and perhaps offer a better alternative (更好的解决方式).

When a company has borrowed money from a bank there is a risk that interest rates will rise, and repayments will become too burdensome (沉重的) to afford.

Start-ups that rely on overseas trade are also exposed to exchange-rate risk.

Moreover, new businesses in particular may be exposed to the risk of operating in only one market.

Whereas large companies often diversify their operations to spread risk.

（spread the risk dversifyly）

Hedge (对冲)：把我们不擅长的不分对冲掉

The success of small companies is often linked to the success of one idea (the original genesis (起源) for start-up). . .

 . . . or one geographic region, such as the local area.

A decline in that market or area can lead to failure.

It is essential that new businesses are mindful of market changes, and position themselves to adapt to those changes.

be mindful of = be aware of

大的分摊，小的要灵活应对风险（adapt）

The Instagram image-sharing social-media application, for example, started life as a location-based service called Burbn.

Faced with competition, the business changed track (改变赛道) into image-sharing.

Had Instagram not reacted to the risks, and been savvy (精明的) enough to diversify its offering (regularly adding new features), it may not have survived.

At its heart (从本质上来讲), risk is a strategic issue.

Business owners must carefully weigh the operational risk of start-up, or the risks of a new product or new project, against potential profits or losses.

运营，产品  against 未来潜在的利润和损失

In other words, the strategic consequences of action vs. inaction.

Risk must be quantified and managed.

And it poses a constant strategic challenge.

Fortune favors the brave, but with people's lives and the success of the business at stake, caution cannot simply be thrown to the wind.

BP's Deepwater Horizon incident led to huge fines (罚款) and US government monitoring of its safety practices and ethics for four years.

Even large and diverse organizations can find it hard to successfully balance risk against potential financial reward.

On April 20, 2010, Deepwater Horizon, an offshore oil rig (钻井平台) chartered by British Petroleum (BP), exploded, killing 11 workers and spilling tens of thousands of barrels (桶) of crude oil (原油) into the Gulf of Mexico.

The incident was blamed on management failure to adequately quantify and manage risk.

The official hearing (听证会) cited a culture of "every dollar counts."

Analysts who examined the disaster claimed that BP had prioritized financial return over operational risk.

Chief executive Tony Hayward, who took the post in 2007, had suggested that the organization's poor performance at the time was due to excessive caution.

Coupled with (伴随着) increasing pressure from shareholders for better returns, the bullish (野蛮的) approach that followed led to significant cost cutting and, eventually, risk management failures.

Fortune favors the brave and caution.

Large companies and small companies both will face different kinds of risk,such as too few customers,the higher interest rate,the change of exchange-rate, and stolen ideas. So when making the decision, they should weigh the operational risk or the risks of the new product or new project against potential profits or losses.

The large companies always spread risk diversifiedly that if one sector has some problems ,another can compensate that.But small companies usually start from one idea that they didn't have sufficient money to operate the whole process smoothly. They should be more mindful to the risk and adapt to these changes.

商者需要勇气更需要谋略。不管是小公司，还是大公司都会面临各种各样的风险，比如说消费者少，公司构思被偷，银行利息太高，汇率问题等问题。在做任何公司决策的时候都要慎重对比可能产生的风险和可能得到的利润。大公司一般的处理方法就是平均风险，小公司没有那么多资源的利用互补，在这个竞争激励的市场就需要灵活的应对风险了。