'It's a Mistake to Underestimate

At the recent APEC CEO Summit in Vietnam, President Donald Trump said the United States would refocus its existing development efforts in Asia toward infrastructure investment that promotes economic growth. While the room was full of hundreds of corporate and government officials from the region and around the world, Trump was delivering his remarks to an audience of one: China. “We are … committed to reforming our development finance institutions so that they better incentivize private sector investment in your economies, and provide strong alternatives to state-directed initiatives that come with many strings attached,” he said.

最近在越南(Vietnam)举行的亚太经合组织工商领导人峰会上，特朗普总统称，美国将调整(refocus)其亚洲发展重心，转向(toward)基础设施投资以促进经济增长。当时，大厅里在座的(was full of )有来自世界各地的几百位企业高管和政府官员(corporate and government officials)，但特朗普的讲话其实面对的观众只有一个( to an audience of one)：中国。他说：“我们正在对发展金融机构进行改革(reforming)，以更好地激励私营企业对中国经济的投资，在国家主导的举措(state-directed initiatives )及其(come with 与……一起)附加条件(strings attached)之外提供强有力的选择(strong alternatives)。”

But there are few signs that Washington has the political appetite to compete with the kinds of investments China has been making around the world. /The most visible aspect of Beijing’s ambition to extend its economic and political influence around the world is the Belt and Road initiative, a massive infrastructure plan that aims to connect China to its Asian neighbors and farther afield. Think of it as a hub-and-spoke model: China, the hub, builds infrastructure in countries around the world, the spokes, in order to facilitate trade. China is building roads, bridges, seaports, and airports in more than 60 countries to facilitate the import of raw material in order to further fuel its own economic growth while it searches for new markets.

但是目前鲜有迹象(few signs)表明，华盛顿拥有与中国在世界各地进行的这些投资相竞争的政治意图(political appetite to compete with )。“一带一路”倡议是北京希望(ambition)扩大其经济和政治影响力的最显著体现(most visible aspect)。这是一个大型基础设施计划，旨在将中国与亚洲邻国和更远的地区相连。我们把它想象成一个中心辐射(hub-and-spoke )状模型：中国作为中心，在其辐射区的周边世界各国进行基础设施建设，促进贸易。中国正在60多个国家建设道路、桥梁、海港(seaports)和机场，以促进原材料进口，推动本国经济进一步增长(further fuel its own economic)，同时寻求新的市场。

Thousands of China’s workers are overseeing projects as far afield as Belarus, Ethiopia, and Sri Lanka—places in dire need of infrastructure investment. “The Chinese are good at marrying market needs with geopolitical goals,” Daniel Kliman, the senior fellow in the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, told me. “It’s a mistake to underestimate China’s ability,” he added.

成千上万的中国工人都远赴(as far afield as)白俄罗斯、埃塞俄比亚、斯里兰卡等急需基础设施投资的地区监管项目(overseeing projects)。“中国人善于将市场需求与地缘政治目标(geopolitical goals)(它根据各种地理要素和政治格局的地域形式，分析和预测世界或地区范围的战略形势和有关国家的政治行为。)相结合。”新美国安全中心亚太安全项目高级研究员(senior fellow)丹尼尔·克里曼说。“低估中国的能力那就错了。”他还补充道

And yet, that’s often exactly what America seems to do. In the Obama era, Washington’s reaction to China’s growing clout ranged from ignoring its efforts at regional economic integration to unsuccessfully urging regional allies to reject a Beijing-led infrastructure initiative, to finally negotiating a massive multilateral trade deal that/ offered regional nations a viable alternative to Chinese investment. So far in the Trump era, U.S. policy has constituted withdrawing from that Obama-era trade deal, the Trans Pacific Partnership, to calling the financial terms China offers for its projects “predatory,” and, finally, to Trump’s indirect remarks about China in Vietnam. (Asian countries are going ahead with the TPP without the United States.) But for those countries that might be looking for an alternative to Chinese investment, the United States, of late, has had little to offer beyond words.

然而，这似乎也正是美国经常遵循(to do)根据上文联系，不应该低估中国的能力的。在奥巴马时代，华盛顿对中国影响力不断扩大(growing clout 日子增长的影响力)的反应包括——忽视中国为区域经济一体化(regional economic integration)所做的努力，游说(urging  说服)地区盟友拒绝中国主导的基础设施建设计划未果后(unsuccessfully 失败后)，又谈判达成一项大规模多边贸易协议(trade deal )，为地区国家提供中国投资以外的可行选择(a viable alternative 可行选择to Chinese investment.)。到目前为止，在特朗普时代，美国政策退出了奥巴马时代的贸易协议，即跨太平洋伙伴关系协定，不再称中国为其项目提供的金融条款(financial terms)是“掠夺性”的，否定了特朗普在越南时关于中国的间接评论(indirect remarks )。（亚洲国家将继续推进(going ahead with)没有美国参与的TPP协定。）不过，对于那些可能寻求中国投资以外选择的国家来说，美国近来(of late)除了空话也帮不上什么忙(had little to offer beyond words.)。

Kliman pointed out, “Not all of what China is doing is market-driven, but there are infrastructure needs in the Indian Ocean area,” Kliman said. China is meeting those needs.

克里曼指出：“虽然(虽然所以要完全)中国做的每件事并非都以市场为导向，但印度洋地区确实对基础设施有需求。”而中国正在填补这些需求(meeting those needs.)。

Ultimately, while America and its allies figure out a coherent response to Belt and Road, China has a singular advantage: It is offering the countries where it is investing a vision for the future. In a sense, through Belt and Road, it seeks to replicate what it has done within its own borders for the past three decades—investments that have helped lift more than 700 million people out of poverty and into the middle class. During that time, globalization has brought steady jobs to China in sectors such as manufacturing. The tangible benefits include massive infrastructure projects, near-perfect roads, and futuristic skylines in places beyond the Western consciousness like Nanchang, not to mention major cities like Shanghai. In other words, China is telling the world it can achieve those same results.

美国及其盟友对“一带一路”作出了一致回应(coherent response)，不过中国依然有其独特优势(singular advantage)，那就是(:冒号可以写那就是)让所投资的国家看到了未来的愿景。某种意义上讲(In a sense)，中国希望通过“一带一路”将国内过去三十年的发展经验复制到(replicate what it has done)沿线(own borders)国家，在此期间的投入已经帮助7亿多人口脱贫(helped lift more than 700 million people out of poverty )，向中产阶级迈进(into the middle class)，全球化为中国制造业等行业创造了稳定的就业机会(brought steady jobs)，并带来了真切的实惠(tangible benefits)，如大规模基建项目、近乎完美的道路以及充满未来气息的城市天际线(futuristic skyline)，在南昌这样西方国家没听说过的城市(beyond the Western consciousness 超出意识就是没有听说过)尚且如此，更不用说像上海这种大城市了。换句话说，中国在向全世界宣告(telling)会在“一带一路”取得同样的成果。

“We’re in a new era, a globalized world,” Shao Yuqun, director of the Center for American Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, a government think tank, told a group of U.S. reporters in Shanghai. “We won’t be isolated.” The Belt and Road Initiative will make sure of that.

政府智库(think tank,)——上海国际问题研究院美洲中心主任邵育群在接受美国记者团采访时表示：“我们处在新时代和一个全球化的世界，不会被孤立。”“一带一路”倡议将为此保驾护航(make sure of that 确定.)。