Mrs May deserved praise for pushing the Article 50 process forward. Yet it is surprising that Brexiteers were so loud in their approval of the deal. Mrs May has blurred many of their red lines. She accepted a bigger exit bill than they originally envisaged. The agreement on the future rights of EU citizens in Britain gives the European Court of Justice (ECJ) a say for eight years after Brexit. The agreement to avoid a hard border in Ireland implies full alignment with most single market rules. And Brussels insists that transition entails accepting all EU laws plus the ECJ.
So why are Brexiteers so quiet? One answer is that their goal is simply to get to the Brexit date of March 29th 2019. They worry that a souring economy or more parliamentary upsets could change the mood. After Mrs May’s defeat the Daily Mail accused the 11 rebel MPs of “pulling the rug from under our EU negotiators”. That is an exaggeration: though their amendment gives MPs a vote on the final Brexit deal, if Parliament rejects it Britain may leave with no deal at all. Still, fears that the project might yet be reversed are keeping Brexiteers mum, no matter how many concessions Mrs May makes.
The second is the belief that, once Brexit happens, all else is possible. David Davis, the Brexit secretary, even suggested the Article 50 agreement could be torn up if a future trade deal were unsatisfactory, because “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”. Michael Gove, the environment secretary, claimed voters could change anything they disliked about Brexit in future elections. Such comments led the EU to toughen its negotiating guidelines to insist on the legal force of the Article 50 deal.
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