Peak Valley 峰谷
Alexandra Suich Bass US technology editor, The EconomistSAN FRANCISCO
Silicon Valley willlose some of its lustre 硅谷将丧失其光彩
THE COMING year will mark the 80th anniversary of Silicon Valley’s original startup. In 1939 Bill Hewlett and David Packard founded their fledgling company,Hewlett-Packard, in a garage near Stanford University. Their success would inspire a generation of entrepreneurs to pursue invention and creation against all odds. Today that garage isdesignated one of California’s historic landmarks. But what it represents—a cheap place to tinker and launch a company in Silicon Valley—is also becoming a thing of history.
Fledgling：a person, organization, or system that is new or without experience. 新的; 无经验的(人、组织、系统)初出茅庐的
Hewlett-Packard ： HP由比尔·休利特和戴维·帕卡德于1939年创建。该公司建在帕罗奥多市的一间汽车库里，第一个产品是声频振荡器，它是音响工程师使用的电子测试仪器。 1934年，刚从斯坦福大学电气工程系毕业的戴维·帕卡德（Dave Packard）和比尔·休利特（Bill Hewlett）去科罗拉多山脉进行了一次为期两周的垂钓野外露营。由于彼此对很多事情的看法一致，而结成一对挚友。此后，比尔在斯坦福大学和麻省理工学院继续研究生学业，而戴维则在通用电气公司找到一份工作。斯坦福大学教授及导师Fred Terman的鼓励和支持，二人决定开办公司并自己经营。1938年，戴维夫妇迁居至加利福尼亚州帕罗奥多市艾迪森大街376号。比尔·休利特就在这栋房子后面租了一间小屋。比尔和戴维用538美元作为流动资金，并利用业余时间在车库里开展工作。比尔利用其研究课题负反馈研制成功了惠普第一台产品：阻容式声频振荡器（HP200A），这是一种用于测试音响设备的电子仪器。
即将到来的2019年标志着硅谷创业80周年。1939年，Bill Hewlett 和 David Packard在斯坦福大学附近的车库创立了他们的初创公司--惠普。他们的成功激励了一代企业家突破万难，追求创新与创造。如今，这一车库已经成为加州具有历史意义的地标之一，但其代表的是：位于硅谷的设立公司一个廉价的地点，已经成为历史。
The San Francisco Bay Area, in which Silicon Valley sits, is still the world’s leading technology hub. In 2017 venture capitalists invested $24.3bn in companies based in the region—one-third of the total they invested across all America.The area boasts a potent combination of talented entrepreneurs and engineers, proximity to top-notch research universities, alarge pool of venture capital and a culture of risk-taking. It is the birthplace of many leading technology firms, including Apple, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Facebook, Netflix and Tesla. As an ecosystem, it has repeatedly spawned and embraced disruption,rebounding from every bust and defying critics who have predictedits demise.
硅谷坐落的旧金山湾区，是世界领先的科技中心。2017年风险投资家给该地区的公司投资了243亿美金—是全美所投资公司的三分之一。该地区拥有大量的优秀企业家和工程师，附近聚集了一流的研究高校，丰富的风险资本和沉浸着一种敢于冒险的文化。这里产生了大量的世界顶尖的科技公司，包括苹果，Alphabet（谷歌母公司），脸书，Netflix和特斯拉。作为一个生态系统，该地区不断地经历破产，但又一次次从破产的境遇中崛起，打破了那些认为它会走向最终沉沦的预言。
Yet despite its many clear advantages, Silicon Valley will experience a “techsodus” in 2019, as it becomes a less attractive place for startups to launch and grow. There are three reasons for this shift. First, Silicon Valley has produced tools that make it possible to run a company from anywhere—or everywhere. Through a combination of messaging apps, video-conferencing, productivity software, goal-setting tools and more, startups are becoming “distributed” entities, with employees sprinkled around the world. That means more startups will be able to capitalise on Silicon Valley’s expertise and talent base withoutneeding to be there.
Techsodus：
然而，硅谷除了有其明显的优势外，也将在2019年经历“技术泡沫”，因其对初创公司的创立与发展越来越缺乏吸引力。出现这一转变有三大原因。其一，硅谷创造出一种工具，可以使得开设公司在任何地方或所有地方成为可能。通过结合使用通讯应用、视频会议、工作软件、目标设定工具以及其他，初创公司正成为“分散式”的实体，其员工散布在全球各个角落。这也意味着，初创公司越来越多地可以利用硅谷的经验和人才，而不需要真正把公司设立在硅谷。
Second, Silicon Valley is becoming less attractive because it is no longer possible to innovate there on a shoestring budget. The cost of living in San Francisco is now the highest in America; a family living on less than $120,000 is considered “low income”by the Department of Housing and Urban Development.These high costs mean fewer people can afford to risk going to work for anunproven startup, and more people will go elsewhere. In 2017 several countiesin the Bay Area saw their largest combined domestic outward migrations inaround a decade. Some 21% of San Francisco-based users of Redfin, a propertyfirm, say they are looking to move away.
shoestring budget：informal if you do somethingon a shoestring,you do it without spending much money 以极少的钱〔做某事〕
ADJ A shoestring budget is one where you have very little money to spend. (预算) 小额的
其二，硅谷越来越缺乏吸引力是因为小额度的投资很难在此地进行创新。旧金山的物价如今是全美最高，根据美国住房与城市发展部门，家庭收入少于12万美金便是“低收入”家庭了。如此高额的消费意味着人们越来越无法承担到硅谷创业的风险了，人们更多地选择到其他地方。2017年，旧金山湾区的几个小镇经历了近十年来最大规模的人口外迁。旧金山一家房产公司Redfin近21%的用户称他们也计划搬走。
According to CBRE, a commercial-property firm, it costs $62.4m a year to run a 500-person company with 7,000 square metres (75,350 square feet) of office in San Francisco—around 50% more than in Portland andAtlanta, and double what it costs in Vancouver and Toronto. In 2019 moreentrepreneurs will favour other cities to launch their firms, or will quicklyopen a second office elsewhere in order to scale up outside the Bay Area.
据商业地产公司CBRE称，其经营旧金山一家面积为7000平方米，员工数量为500人的公司，每年要花费6240万美金，这一费用高出波兰和亚特兰大的一倍，是温哥华和多伦多的两倍之多。2019年企业家们将更愿意在其他的城市创业，并迅速在其他地方开设他们的分店，以便和湾区企业竞争。
A final reason why Silicon Valley is losing some of itsdynamism is the looming presenceofthe tech giants. Today’s leading technology firms are more powerful,nimble and expansive intheir ambitions than any generation of company before them, which leaves lessspace for startups to flourish.“It was never quite this dominated. You always had bigger companies, but you never had anything quite like this,” says Peter Thiel, a venture capitalist and board member of Facebook. He is leaving the Bay Area for Los Angeles, and predicts that the Bay Area’s power relative to other tech hubs is on the wane.
Looming presence:
On the wane: 逐渐衰落; 日落西山;日益衰落; 凋零
硅谷正丧失其活力的最后一个原因是科技巨头公司的存在。如今，世界领先的科技公司都比以往的企业更加具有影响力、更灵活、更加雄心壮志，这使得初创公司很难有发展的余地。“这些公司从未有过如此的主导地位。你可以看到规模更大的公司，但是就其影响力来说，这是史无前例的。”脸书的风投资本家和董事会成员Peter称道。他正准备离开旧金山湾区前往旧金山，他预测到，旧金山对于其他科技中心的权力日渐衰落。
Valley of dreams 梦之硅谷
The stifling impact of the tech giants affects the marketplace for ideas everywhere, andespecially the market for talent in the Bay Area. Because the giants are sosuccessful, they can afford to throw huge sums in cash and stock at employees,even middle managers, making it extremely challenging for startups to hire.Engineers with graduate degrees in artificial intelligence are now paid likeprofessional athletes,fetchingcompensation of $5m-10m a year. Cities that are farther away from the techgiants’tentacles canhelp startups hire affordably and reduce the risk of their employees being poached.
Fetching: attractive,迷人的
Tentacle：[plural,复数] theinfluence or effect that something has on other people or things - used to showdisapproval 影响；束缚；约束〔含贬义〕
Poach： topersuade someone who belongs to another organization, team etc to leave it andjoin yours, especially in a secret or dishonest way 挖走〔公司、球队等的成员〕
科技巨头这种令人窒息的影响力影响了全球各地的市场理念，尤其是湾区人才的想法。由于这些科技巨头公司的辉煌成就，他们有能力向员工和中层管理者提供大把现金和股票，使得初创公司根本无法雇佣他们。人工智能专业研究生学历的工程师的薪酬与专业运动员不相上下，每年可拿到50-100万美金的丰厚报酬。批评者称，只有远离这些科技巨头公司的触角，初创公司才能雇佣得起员工，并且减少员工被挖走的风险。
Silicon Valley has become a victim of its own success.There is no single place that will replace it as the world’s leading tech hub, but many other places will benefit, including LosAngeles, Portland, Dallas, Toronto, London, Berlin, Beijing and Shenzhen. If this shift causes innovation to become more geographically diverse andinclusive, that would be a welcome development.
硅谷已成为其成功的受害者。世界上没有任何一个地方可以代替这个全球顶尖的科技中心，但是许多其他地方会收益，包括洛杉矶、波特兰、达拉斯、多伦多、伦敦、柏林、北京以及深圳。如果说这一转变可以使得创新更加具有地区多样性和包容性，那么这一转变值得出现。
But if Silicon Valley becomes like Wall Street, dominatedby a few too-big-to-fail firms, with a culture oriented only towards money,that would be a pity. Silicon Valley has created so many world-changinginventions because of its density of startups, casual networks, willingness toembrace risk and belief that it was possible for upstarts to dislodge incumbents. The coming yearwill test whether Silicon Valley can maintain its edge as innovators aretempted to set up shop elsewhere.
Dislodge: to make someone leave a place or lose a position of power,驱逐、赶走
Incumbent：在位者，现有企业
但，如果硅谷像华尔街一样，由少数几家因规模太大而最终破产的公司所主导，其文化只是注重金钱的利益，那么硅谷将成为遗憾。因其初创企业的多样性、不受拘束的网络、乐于冒险的精神、以及本着可以颠覆传统的信念，硅谷已经创造出如此多改变世界的发明。随着创新人士更热衷于到其他地方创业，硅谷到底是否能够维持其优势，新的一年这一疑问将见分晓。
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