原文：贝莱德智库（BII）

翻译：知识星球「资产配置研究院」

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更弱、更长的第2波新冠疫情

A shallower, longer second Covid-19 wave

BII认为，尽管欧美新冠病例数量激增，今年3~4月的恶劣状况不会再次上演了。

Covid-19 cases have surged in the U.S. and Europe, yet we don't see this as a replay of March and April.

为什么这么说？

在修正过检测人数后，当前的这波疫情比第1波要小得多，发展速度也慢得多。

除此之外，为了保障公共健康所需要作出的经济活动牺牲，也没有之前那么严重。

Why? The current wave has been significantly smaller and slower than the first wave after correcting for the greatly increased volume of testing. In addition there appears to be less of a trade-off between economic activity and public health.

BII对疫情的基本预期是第2波疫情更弱、更长，不会像最初爆发那样对人员流动产生那么大的冲击。

不过，经济复苏过程中最困难的部分 —— 追上疫情爆发前的经济活动水平 —— 还未到达。

Our base case remains a shallower, longer second wave that is unlikely to have the same impact on mobility as the initial outbreak. Yet the hardest part of the restart – closing the gap to pre-Covid activity levels – lies ahead.

👉  [图] 影响衰弱：G7国家的病例数和零售活动变化

屠夫的图表说明 ——

横轴 = 每百万人的7天病例增量，纵轴 = 零售和娱乐活动的7天变化

浅灰点 = 3~6月份的数据，橙红点 = 7月份以来的数据

在疫情爆发的前三个月，由于……

（后文略）