Autonomous Vehicles Fall Into The Trough Of Disillusionment ... But That's Good

自动驾驶汽车驶入幻想破灭的低谷......但这未必是坏事

Autonomous vehicles have plunged into the Trough of Disillusionment!

自动驾驶汽车行业已经陷入了幻想破灭的低谷！

        When I say it like that, it seems like the end is near, that the billions of dollars that have been spent on developing AVs is for naught.

        当你听到我这样说的时候，似乎觉得自动驾驶行业气数将尽，用于开发自动驾驶汽车的数十亿美元都将付诸东流。

        In fact, it was inevitable and a good sign for the technology. This year, I was the lead author on Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Connected Vehicles and Smart Mobility and our group placed autonomous vehicles into the Trough of Disillusionment.

        事实上，这是技术发展的必然趋势和良好标志。我是今年Gartner咨询公司《互联汽车和智能出行的炒作周期》的首席撰稿人。我们的研究小组认为自动驾驶汽车行业的发展目前已经进入了幻想破灭的低谷时期。

        The Hype Cycle is a very useful report that looks at a range of technologies and concepts and tries to plot their maturity against the hype they are receiving. The idea is that technologies are hyped well ahead of their actual impact. By the time they are mature, they aren’t hyped much any longer.

        《互联汽车和智能出行的炒作周期》是一个非常实用的报告，它关注了一系列技术和概念，并试图从它们受到的过度炒作背后还原它们的真实面貌。我们认为技术在实际发挥影响之前往往会被大肆宣传和过度炒作。当这些技术成熟后，它们才不会被如此炒作。

        For autonomous vehicles and other technologies that are put on the cycle, the idea is to peg the moment when buzz is extremely high and then, later, to find the moment when buzz is fading in the face of commercialization or implementation efforts. And often there is a consolidation of suppliers and tightening of resources as it becomes clear the market can’t support more players.

        对于自动驾驶和其他符合这些周期性炒作规律的技术，我们的想法是首先盯住炒作声浪非常高的时刻，然后找到商业化或技术落地时炒作消退的阶段。通常这一阶段会伴有供应商整合和资源紧缩，市场也无法再容纳更多的参与者进入。

        We plot technologies as they pass to each of the five stages on the cycle.

        我们绘制了技术在过度炒作和宣传周期中的五个阶段。

        Over the past year, there have been a number of signs that this is occurring with autonomous vehicles. The sale of nuTonomy to Delphi (which became Aptiv), was a major event as nuTonomy was a leading independent autonomous vehicle developer. That sale was only a few months after Intel purchased Israeli safety-system company, Mobileye, for more than $15 billion. And while companies continue to get funding in the autonomy space, some of the smaller players are beginning to feel the squeeze as venture funders are getting more picky about investments.

        在过去一年中，有许多迹象表明这种周期性炒作情况正在发生在自动驾驶行业。nuTonomy是一家领先的独立自动驾驶汽车开发商。因此nuTonomy被出售给德尔福（即后来的Aptiv公司）是一个重要标志。这笔交易就发生在英特尔以超过150亿美元收购以色列安全系统公司Mobileye的几个月后。虽然很多自主研发自动驾驶技术的公司仍然能获得投资，但是一些规模较小的公司开始感到压力，因为风险投资者开始变得越来越谨慎。

        Bloomberg recently wrote about the challenges of Quanergy, which at one point was probably the hottest name in LiDAR sensors. They are the laser range finders that are used to help AVs “see.” It’s likely that struggles will become more common because it will be years before mass commercialization of the technology, and there are dozens and dozens of potential suppliers. In other words, it will be a long time before the revenue starts pouring in, and when it does, not everyone in the race now will be getting it.

        彭博社最近写到了激光雷达行业最热门公司之一的Quanergy所面临的挑战。它开发的激光雷达传感器，能用于帮助自动驾驶汽车“看见”世界。由于技术大规模商业化将需要数年，并且该领域有数十个潜在的供应商，因此激光雷达行业内的斗争可能会变得更加普遍。换句话说，实现可观的营收还需要很长时间。而且当这个行业开始赚钱时，也不是现在的每个参与者都能分到一杯羹。

        Unquestionably, the accidental killing of a pedestrian in Arizona by an Uber autonomous vehicle development vehicle, as well as the death of a man using Tesla’s Autopilot driver assistance system have drawn concerns about the readiness of the technology to be deployed.

        毫无疑问，优步的自动驾驶汽车在亚利桑那州意外撞死一名行人，以及使用特斯拉自动驾驶辅助系统的一名男子的死亡，已经引起了人们对该技术是否已经准备就绪的担忧。

        Hype is still relatively strong, but it isn’t the same as 2015 when the timetable for companies developing autonomous vehicles seemed reasonable and the impact enormous. That was when Gartner put the technology at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Now, on the back half of 2018, the planned launch schedules for autonomous vehicles are beginning to feel uncomfortably close.

        炒作的声浪依然很高，但与2015年不同的是，当时开发自动驾驶汽车的公司制定的时间表看起来似乎很合理，而且影响也很大。Gartner将那个时期的自动驾驶技术放在了预期膨胀的顶峰。现在，在2018年的后半段，自动驾驶汽车的计划发布时间变得越来越近，近得令人感到不安。

        Waymo certainly is holding up its part of the bargain and plans to debut its commercial ride-hailing service using driverless minivans later this year. If it does, it will be a giant accomplishment. General Motors plans to launch autonomous vehicles next year in a ride-hailing fleet. Then a slew of other companies plans to debut cars in 2020 and 2021.

        Waymo仍然在按部就班地履行自己的承诺，并计划在今年晚些时候推出使用它自主研发的无人驾驶面包车的商业乘车服务。如果到时候兑现承诺，这将是一项巨大的成就。通用汽车计划明年推出一个自动驾驶汽车商业车队。其它一些公司计划在2020年和2021年发布各自的自动驾驶汽车。

        But as these promised deployments grow ever closer, there still are questions about whether the technology will be ready for commercial deployment.

        但随着这些承诺的自动驾驶部署计划越来越接近，仍然存在关于该技术是否可以实现商业化落地的问题。

        Meanwhile, the U.S. government still hasn’t been able to pass a law to govern their safety. Cities and states are wondering what they should do to regulate these vehicles.

        与此同时，美国政府仍然还未能够通过法律来监督它们的安全问题。各大城市和各大州都在想办法如何管理这些即将到来的自动驾驶车辆。

        Audi said the lack of clarity on regulations is preventing it from selling the A8 equipped with Traffic Jam Assist in the U.S. It is the first so-called Level 3 system, which allows drivers to take their hands off the wheel and let the car drive up to about 35 mph.

        奥迪表示，缺乏明确的法规阻碍了它在美国销售配备了交通拥堵辅助系统Traffic Jam Assist的新A8车型。新A8是世界上第一个被称为达到了自动驾驶3级水平的车型。它允许驾驶员将手从方向盘上移开并让汽车以大约35英里每小时的速度自主行驶。

        The technology must go forward through the cycle, and I expect that if it follows form, there will be more delays and struggles to commercialize the technology, but that will not diminish its importance. In a few years, it will be climbing up the Slope of Enlightenment and into the Plateau of Productivity. By then, it won’t be hyped nearly as much, but it will be a lot more useful.

        技术的发展必定会经历这样一个宣传炒作周期才会逐渐成熟。按照我的期望，如果自动驾驶技术按照这个规律发展，在技术真正商业化之前将会需要更多的时间和努力，但这并不会降低其重要性。几年后，它将攀爬上启蒙的山坡并迈入生产力的高原。到那时，它不会像如今这样被大肆宣传炒作，但它会更加惠及大众。

By Mike Ramsey