A surge in covid-19 in Europe is mostly under control. That may change。
欧洲新冠的激增大多都被控制住了，但这可能会发生变化。
The waves of an epidemic tend to rise like a tsunami—slowly, almost surreptitiously, before a precipitous surge. In parts of Europe there are now fears that covid-19 cases may again be nearing a menacing inflection point. In Spain, daily new cases in the week to July 28th have risen sharply to nearly ten times the low they had descended to in June, when the lockdown was lifted. Less dramatic but worrying increases in cases are starting to bubble up in other European countries.
流行病的疫情，像海啸一样，在巨浪到来之前总是缓慢的，甚至是不容易被察觉的。在欧洲的部分地区现在正在担心新冠病例可能再次临近爆发的拐点。在西班牙，截至七月28日前的一周内，每日新增病例接近陡增到6月解封前最低水平的10倍。在其它欧洲国家，虽然反弹没有这么引人注目，但担忧却在日益膨胀。
For the moment, the spikes in Europe are largely confined to a few hotspot countries, regions within them or even towns. Infection rates are particularly high in the Balkans and in Spain, which has notched up about 27 cases per 100,000 people in the past week. The corresponding case rate in Germany, France and Italy is in the single digits. In both low- and high-rate countries, the bulk of new cases is often concentrated in particular locations. Roughly twothirds of Spain’s cases in the past week are from just two regions, Catalonia and Aragon, which are home to a fifth of Spaniards. About 20% of Italy’s cases in the same period are in the Emilia-Romagna region, which has just 7% of the population。
目前，欧洲的涨势主要集中在几个热点国家的地区和城镇。在巴尔干和西班牙感染率特别高，在过去一周，已经达到了每十万人有27个病例。德国、法国、意大利也有相似的情况，每十万感染率也达到了个位数。无论是在低感染率还是高感染率国家，新病例大都集中在特定地区。西班牙过去一周的新增病例有三分之二来自于 Catalonia 和 Aragon 两个区域，这里是五分之一西班牙人的家。同期，意大利大约有20%的病例在人口仅占7%的艾比利亚地区。
The rise in cases across Europe is not surprising, says Hans Kluge of the World Health Organisation. As lockdowns were lifted and people resumed travel and mingling, both imported cases and the local spread of the virus have pushed tallies up. What is different now is that testing and tracing systems are catching local spikes early, and authorities are battling them with localised measures. On July 27th Antwerp, Belgium’s most populous province, announced a night curfew for non-essential movement and made masks mandatory in public spaces; people were told to stay at home as much as possible. Covid clusters have emerged across Germany, in care homes, workplaces and private parties, forcing officials to impose localised
lockdowns. In mid-July the Catalan authorities reimposed a strict lockdown in Lleida, a city of 140,000. Nightclubs in Barcelona and other hotspots in Spain were recently shut or ordered to close early.
市委组织的 Hans Kluge 认为，欧洲的病例反弹并不意外。随着封锁的解除，人们开始恢复旅行和交往，无论是输入病例还是本土传播都使得感染人数增加。现在不同的是，能够更快的检测和追踪本地感染源，并且当局能在当地采取措施。七月27日，比利时人口最多的省份 Antwerp 宣布对非必要活动进行宵禁，并且强制在公众场合佩戴口罩。人们被告知尽可能的呆在家里。新冠病群在德国各地出现，在养老院、工作场合、私人聚会中都有。迫使官方实施了地方封锁。在七月中旬，加泰罗尼亚在有14万人口的Lleida 地区实施了严格的封锁。Barcelona 和其它疫情热点地区的夜总会最近被勒令关闭或者提前结束营业。
Varying covid-19 rates across Europe have prompted countries to make some tough choices. In a normal year, some 18m Britons seek fun in the sun in Spain, along with lots of other northern Europeans. But as cases in Spain notched up, Britain and Norway swiftly brought back quarantine
for people coming from Spain. Vacationers to Greece from some Balkan countries must now show proof of a negative covid-19 test to enter the country. That has dealt a blow to whatever remained of the foreign tourist season in much of southern Europe. But there has been a collective sigh of relief among health officials watching with trepidation clubs and beaches crowded with drunk foreigners.
欧洲各地不同程度的新冠疫情，促使各国做出一些艰难的选择。在正常的年份，大约有1800万英国人和许多北欧人一起到西班牙享受阳关。但是随着西班牙病例的基层，英国和挪威迅速开始了对西班牙的隔离。一些去巴尔干国家的游客，必须要出示新冠检测的阴性报告才能进入希腊。这对南欧大部分剩余地区的国外旅游季造成了沉重打击。但是一想到挤满了外国醉汉的沙滩和俱乐部，卫生部门的官员们都松了一口气。
That, however, still leaves the matter of intensifying local transmission. A pattern that cuts across Europe is that new cases have been mostly among people in their 20s and 30s; clusters linked to large parties have become a recurring theme across the continent. German politicians have warned that citizens are growing complacent about the dangers; surveys confirm suspicions that fewer people are avoiding crowded public spaces or private gatherings. Dr Kluge says that the priority in Europe now is to ensure that young people comply more with such precautions. If that fails, he says, it won’t be long before infections spread to older, vulnerable people.
然而，这仍然留下了加剧本地传播的问题。一个贯穿欧洲的现象是，新增病例大都集中在20-30岁的人中。与大型政党有关的集群已经成为这片大陆反复出现的主题。德国政府已经警告称，人们对新冠危险已经逐渐麻木，调查也证实了这一点，越来越少的人会避开拥挤的公共场所和私人聚会。Kluge 博士说，欧洲目前的首要任务是确保年轻人更多的遵守此类预防措施。他说，如果这次失败了，会很快传染到老年人和脆弱的人群。
As the summer starts to wind down, the need to contain outbreaks across Europe will become increasingly acute. A huge worry in all countries is the autumn, when people start to spend more time indoors and flu and other respiratory infections rise as they do every year, filling hospital beds. Countries that reach that point with a high plateau of covid-19 cases could see a return to exponential growth that overwhelms hospitals again. Across Europe, they are better prepared for a second wave than they were for the first, with new measures to curb the spread of covid-19 in hospitals and extra beds and field hospitals that are mothballed now. But how hard they are hit will depend largely on how much their citizens choose to play by the
rules of the new normal.
随着夏季逐渐结束，控制疫情在这个欧洲的蔓延将会变得更加迫切。所有国家都非常担心秋天，因为这个适合人们开始在屋里呆更多的时间，流感和其他呼吸道感染像其它年份一样开始增多，医院人满为患。当新冠感染率高的国家到达这个情况的时候，将会再次看到感染指数级的增长，医院不堪重负。在整个欧洲，他们比第一波疫情时准备的充分。他们采取了新的措施遏制疫情在医院传播，并且准备了备用的额外病床和野外医院。但是，他们将会受到怎样的打击程度，很大程度上取决于他们有多少公民选择遵守新情况下的规则。
网友评论