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《未来简史》11:人类会被算法替代吗?day 19

《未来简史》11:人类会被算法替代吗?day 19

作者: 桂花树下 | 来源:发表于2017-09-22 08:02 被阅读0次

    This is not an entirely new question.

    这并不是一个全新的问题。

    Ever since the Industrial Revolution erupted, people feared that mechanisation might cause mass unemployment.

    自从工业革命爆发以来,人们就担心机械化会引起大量的失业。

    This never happened, because as old professions became obsolete, new professions evolved, and there was always something humans could do better than machines.

    但这从未发生过,因为当老的职业消失了,新的职业会出现,总有一些人比机器干得好的事情。

    Yet this is not a law of nature, and nothing guarantees it will continue to be like that in the future.

    但这并非自然法则,无法保证未来也是这样的。

    Humans have two basic types of abilities: physical abilities and cognitive abilities.

    人类有两种基本能力:体能和认知能力。

    As long as machines competed with us merely in physical abilities, you could always find cognitive tasks that humans do better.

    如果机器只是与人类竞争体力能力,你总是发现人在认知任务上会表现得更好。

    So machines took over purely manual jobs, while humans focused on jobs requiring at least some cognitive skills.

    有些机器仅仅代替了手工作业,人类主要集中在需要一些认知技巧的工作上。

    Yet what will happen once algorithms outperform us in remembering, analysing and recognising patterns?

    但当算法在记忆、分析、模式识别方面胜过人类时会发生什么呢?

    The idea that humans will always have a unique ability beyond the reach of non-conscious algorithms is just wishful thinking.

    那种认为人类总是拥有独特的能力,超过无意识的算法所能达到的程度,无疑是不切实际的。

    The current scientific answer to this pipe dream can be summarised in three simple principles:

    现在的科学将会总结出以下三个简单的法则来回答这种幻想:

    1. Organisms are algorithms. Every animal – including Homo sapiens – is an assemblage of organic algorithms shaped by natural selection over millions of years of evolution

    1、生物组织就是算法。任何动物包括智人都是器官算法的组合,是经过自然界亿万年的选择形成的。

    2.Algorithmic calculations are not affected by the materials from which you build the calculator. Whether you build an abacus from wood, iron or plastic, two beads plus two beads equals four beads.

    2.计算机算法不会受采用何种材料构建计算器的影响。无论是木头的、铁的还是塑料的计算器,两个珠子加上两个珠子都等于四个珠子。

    3.Hence there is no reason to think that organic algorithms can do things that non-organic algorithms will never be able to replicate or surpass.

    因此没有理由说无器官算法不能等同或超过器官算法。

    As long as the calculations remain valid, what does it matter whether the algorithms are manifested in carbon or silicon?

    如果计算保持有效,无论算法是有二氧化碳或硅来表示都是无关紧要的。

    词汇:

    erupt  v. 爆发,喷发

    mechanisation  n. 机械化

    obsolete  adj. 废弃的; 老式的,已过时的

    cognitive  adj. 认知的,认识的

    algorithm  n. 算法

    wishful thinking  一厢情愿,如意算盘

    pipe dream  白日梦,幻想

    assemblage  n. 装配,聚集

    abacus  n. 算盘

    bead  n. 有孔小珠,念珠

    replicate  v. 复制,复写

    surpass  v. 超过,优于

    manifest  v. 表明,显示

    As long as :只是、如果

    outperform:做得……更好,胜过

    vilid:有效的

    what does it matter:无关紧要

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