Note：英文水平一般，且只边阅读边翻译，因为时间关系没有修饰文字。出现错误请务必指出，如果贴出一大段知识点和建议，必有回报！
“Think it possible that you may be mistaken.”——Quaker Advices and Queries
（这句翻了好久没有翻出心仪的句子）
IN OCTOBER 2008, Wendelin Wiedeking, Porsche’s chief executive, announced an imminent takeover of VW. Hedge funds that had bet on VW’s share price falling were confounded. Tearful fund managers confronted huge losses. Yet within six months, Porsche was almost bankrupt. In a humiliating reversal, VW turned the tables on the predatory Porsche, which lost its independence – when it had seemed to come within an ace of success. Porsche was ruined by overconfidence. Yet why was Porsche so sure? What made it believe that it could dominate a company 82 times its size?
2008年10月，法拉第CEOWendelin Wiedeking宣布提前接管大众。Hedge基金预测大众的股价将大跌。基金经理们遭遇了惨重的损失。但是在6个月内，法拉第几乎濒临破产。在这个耻辱性的逆转中，大众面对法拉第的掠夺性攻击成功反败为胜，法拉第在貌似快成功的情况下几乎失去了自主权。法拉第被自己的自负所摧毁。那为什么法拉第那么确定自己可以打败大众呢？是什么让法拉第相信自己可以控制比自己体量大82倍的大众呢？
Calamity loves overconfidence. This chapter explores what causes overconfidence and how it can lead to calamity. The starting point is that most managers are confident to begin with. Repeated success makes them even more confident and therefore more prone to behaving recklessly – though without realising it. Business is a game of skill and luck. The important thing is not to depend too much on luck.
自负伴随着灾难。这章将探讨引起过度自信的原因和其如何导致灾难的。在项目开始的时候，大多数的管理者都会表现的充满自信。重复的成功让他们信心爆棚，因此让他们表现出更加鲁莽的行为倾向——但是他们并没有意识到。商业活动是一场技术与运气的博弈，成功的关键是不要过分依赖运气。
1.Illusions of control 控制的错觉
In 1980, Shelly Taylor, a psychologist, published a controversial book entitled Positive Illusions. Taylor’s theme (supported by substantial research evidence) is that most people are out of touch with reality most of the time. For instance, whereas depression is popularly regarded as seeing things as worse than they are, Taylor argues that depression is seeing things as they are.
在1980年，心理学家Shelly Taylor发表了一本引发争议的书叫做‘Positive Illusions（积极幻想）’。Taylor的观点是大多数人在大多数时候无法触碰到现实。比如说，人们普遍认为抑郁症是患者看到了更糟糕的事情，但Taylor认为抑郁症是患者看到了事物本身（这里有点禅意啊）。
Psychologists call it the illusion of control, a reference to our innate tendency as human beings to overestimate our ability to achieve outcomes, even those that are obviously due to chance. For instance, would you prefer to choose a lottery ticket or accept a ticket from the shopkeeper? (Assume that the shopkeeper is honest.) Logically, it makes no difference to the probability of winning. Yet you may prefer to choose the ticket – why?
心理学家把这叫做错觉，有研究表明这是人之为人天生的心理倾向：高估我们成功的能力，但这成功往往是由于机遇。比如说，你更想让老板帮你选一张彩票号码还是自己亲自选择？从统计学来说，这两种情况赢得奖金的概率是一样的，但你往往会自己选择彩票号码。这是为什么呢？
Research into gambling behaviour has shown that players often behave as if they can control chance events. For instance, they shake the cup hard if they need high numbers on the dice and softly if they need low numbers. Then there is the daily “to do” list. Those who compile such lists typically overestimate what they can achieve in a day. Yet that does not stop them from compiling yet another list – as if they never learn. Overconfidence may also encourage frequent trading in stockmarkets. That is, frequent traders may assume that their stock selections will be so successful that transaction costs will prove immaterial.
博弈行为的研究表明玩家通常表现出他们似乎掌控着全局。比如说，当玩家们想掷到一个大数时就会使劲摇着杯子，但如果想要一个小数时就会轻轻摇杯子。当我们在写每日待办事项清单时， 我们总是过高估计一天能完成的任务量。但是我们再次写任务清单时，依然这样做，就好像从来不知道一样。在股票市场，过分自信也会增加交易频率。股民们会对所持有的股票充满信心而频繁交易却不在乎交易陈本。
Our innate tendency to overestimate our abilities means we often see ourselves as superior to other people. We also view ourselves more positively than others see us. We often overstate the value of our own contributions, while undervaluing contributions made by other people. For instance, in 1923 two Canadian scientists, Frederick Banting and James Macleod, won the Nobel Prize in medicine for the discovery of insulin. Banting claimed that Macleod had been more of a hindrance than a help while Macleod omitted Banting’s name from all the speeches describing the research leading up to the discovery. Similarly, in group work, most people remember their own contributions rather than those made by other members of the group. Negotiators often underestimate the bargaining power of their opponents and overestimate the likelihood that their final offer will be accepted.
这种天生高估自己能力的倾向意味着我们总是把自己看得比别人更厉害。我们看待自己总是比别人看我们更乐观。我们通常夸大我们所做出成绩的价值，同时低估别人的成就。比如说，1923年，因为发现了胰岛素，加拿大两位科学家Frederick Banting和James Macleod获得了诺贝尔医学奖。当Macleod在做关于胰岛素研究的演讲总是省略掉Banting的名字时，Banting就声称 Macleod其实是更多阻碍而非促进发现胰岛素。在团队工作中也相似，大多数的人总是更在意自己的功劳而不是别人。谈判代表总是低估对手讨价还价的能力和高估对手最终接受自己报价的可能性。
Research has shown that most people value themselves too highly. The result may be that they price themselves (or their firms) out of the market. The chief executive of a multinational company says:
We needed a piece of research done. Firms in the US and Australia wanted around $20 million for the job. A firm in India said they would do it if we re-kitted their laboratories – $3 million – and they had all the infrastructure and staff in place to support the research – same as the US and Australia.
研究表明大多数人都会高估自己。这样的结果可能会导致他们脱离市场高估自己的价值。一位跨过公司的CEO说：同样是进行一项研究，美国和澳大利亚的公司评估需要2000万美元，但印度的公司却只报价300万美元，并且提供和美澳一样的基础设施和技术人员。
Lesson: be humble. 教训：谦虚点
Overconfidence breeds complacency. When NASA first launched the Apollo moon-landing expeditions in the 1960s, it was so afraid of failure that engineers had to prove that every launch was safe before it could go ahead. As the technology became routine, the system developed a false confidence in itself. Safety standards were lowered. That meant rockets would be launched unless engineers could prove that it was unsafe to do so. The consequences of NASA’s complacency were graphically demonstrated when the spaceship Challenger exploded on take-off killing all on board – before a television audience of millions. Similarly, as memories of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl receded, attitudes towards nuclear energy relaxed. Then in 2011 an earthquake struck Japan followed by a tsunami. Reactors melted down releasing high levels of radioactivity into the atmosphere and the ocean. The disaster also exposed systemic weaknesses, including poor location of the reactors, poor accident preparation, poor emergency response and weak regulation. It was the old story. We forget that a history of no accidents does not mean something is safe.
过度自信喂养自满。当NASA第一次打算在70年代发布阿波罗登月计划时，因为非常担心失败，每次发射前都会让工程师保证安全性。但当这些变成例行公事时，整个系统演化出错误的自信。安全标准被过低设置，这意味着除非工程师证明发射存在安全隐患，火箭就会正常发射。NASA自满的结果就是在上百万电视观众面前，宇宙飞船Challenger的发射失败，所有宇航员都殉难了。相似的，三里岛和切尔诺贝利事件让人们改变了对和能源的态度。之后，2011年的福岛核泄漏事件发生，反应堆泄露的放射性物质污染了大气和海洋。灾难总是暴露系统的弱点，比如糟糕的反应堆的选址、突发事件预案、紧急反应能力和程序。这是个古老的故事，我们忘记历史上的灾难但这并不意味着所有的一切都是安全的。
Toyota’s leaders inflicted huge damage upon the company by refusing to recall vehicles with potentially lethal accelerator pedals. Toyota had known about the “sticky accelerator pedal” problem for months (possibly years) before reports began appearing in the news in late 2009, but acted only when forced to do so by mounting public pressure. The company was finally galvanised into action following worldwide dissemination of a recording of the last words of a passenger in a hired Lexus that allegedly sped out of control.
丰田的领导人拒绝召回存在加速踏板问题的车辆，因为这对公司会造成巨大损失。在2009年底新闻报道出现之前，丰田就已经知道了“粘性油门踏板”问题，但是却在公众舆论的压力下才开始宣布召回有问题车辆。一段雷克萨斯雇员的行车记录在全球范围内传播，最终导致丰田公司对于这次事件的完全失控。
In a 911 emergency call made just before the car crashed, Chris Lastrella is heard saying, “We’re in a Lexus . . . and we’re going north on 125 and our accelerator is stuck . . . we’re in trouble . . . there’s no brakes . . . we’re approaching the intersection . . . hold on . . . hold on and pray . . . pray.”2 Lastrella was killed in the crash along with the driver of the car and two other passengers. Part of Toyota’s problem may have been that it simply could not believe that its cars could be less than perfect. 丰田的问题是过分相信自己的汽车没有安全风险。
2.The confidence trap 自信陷阱
Nothing succeeds like success, according to the proverb. Yet repeated success can destroy us. This is because, if we are consistently successful, we expect to succeed. Just as people who experience early wins in games of chance tend to raise their bets, repeated success can tempt us to take bigger and bigger risks because we feel invulnerable.
正如谚语所说，成功不易。但是把成功挂在嘴边会毁了我们。这是因为如果我们一直成功，我们就会期待成功。在赌博中，一开始体验了赢钱的感觉会提高我们的赌注。一直成功会让我们感觉无懈可击，导致风险越来越大。
Barings almost came to grief 100 years before it was destroyed by Nick Leeson’s activities in the early 1990s. During the 1880s Barings was flying high as evidenced by the runaway success of the Guinness flotation of 1886, when investors, desperate to acquire shares, resorted to wrapping their application forms round stones and hurling them through Barings’ windows. Barings then determined upon an even bolder venture, namely a waterworks project in Argentina. This time Lord Revelstoke, Barings’ senior partner, decided that underwriting was superfluous. The issue failed. Barings was left holding the shares. The firm had to be rescued by the government because of the systemic threat. The partners lost everything. Lord Revelstoke’s mistake was dispensing with underwriting. That decision made the venture much more risky. Lord Revelstoke took the decision because he assumed that the Guinness success would be repeated. Such was his overconfidence that it never occurred to him that it might not be.
Modern firms are by no means immune from the overconfidence trap. In 2007, Vodafone triumphantly launched a $10.9 billion expansion into India by acquiring a 66% stake in Hutchinson Essar, renamed Vodafone Essar. Vodafone expected to acquire a substantial share of India’s growing market for mobile telephony. Yet within three years, it was forced to write down the value of its Indian business by 25%. This embarrassing reversal happened because whereas most countries have three or four network operators, India has 15. An overly confident Vodafone failed adequately to consider the implications of this basic statistic. (The venture has since prospered despite the inauspicious start.)
现代公司也不可能逃脱过度自信陷阱。（2007年沃达丰在印度的投资失败案例。）
Similarly, Porsche’s status as the most profitable carmaker in the world may have gone to its directors’ heads. Success also boosts our self-esteem. High self-esteem may also explain (but not excuse) unethical behaviour. That is, executives with high self-esteem may believe that they are incapable of acting unethically. （保时捷的例子）成功助长狂妄自大。很多违法职业道德的行为可以用狂妄自大来解释。因为自大的高管们从骨子里就相信他们的行为不是不道德的。
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