Why Do You Believe It ?

Better and Better                                                                                                Day 45

      Today we continue to learn the decision-making based on the thinking in bets. The first step in scientific decision-making is to probability your judgment of things. For example, when you want to say “ I think it’s going to rain ”, you should say “ I think the probability of raining is 65% ”. But you might can’t do it in life. When an average person says he believes somethings, he usually doesn’t consider probability. He either believed all or didn’t believe it. That’s because when the human brain receives a new information, it is always assured that it is completely real or false by by his experience and moral view. If you don’t even have a look at the power of authentication, let alone decision-making. So you should consider your decision cost before you choose to believe.               

      今天我們繼續講基於賭博思維的決策。科學決策的第一步是把你對事物的判斷給“概率化”。當你說“我覺得要下雨了”，你應該説“我認爲下雨的可能性是65%”。但是在生活中你可能做不到。當一般人說自己“相信”什麽事情的時候，他通常不會考慮概率。他要麽全信、要麽全不信。當人的大腦接收一個新消息的時候，他會根據以往的經驗和道德觀來判定這個事絕對的真或假。那如果你連審視真假的動力都沒有，就更不用說決策了。所以你要在選擇相信之前，提前考慮好你的決策概率和決策成本。

                                                                                                            Otc.8th ,2018                                                                                                                      Bazhou.