偶然看到的关于巴菲特和查理芒格的采访，关于熊市中投资股票的说法，其中渗透着一些哲理性质的投资策略，值得看一看。
熊市中如何投资股票？
If the market gets cheaper, well, we will have many more opportunities to do intelligent things with money, now whether we will have a blow on the money in the meantime or something . That is another question. But but you know we are going to be buying things, one thing or another, Operating businesses stocks, high-yield bonds高收益债券, whatever. We're going to be buying things uh, for as long as I live, just as long, it's just like I'm gonna be buying groceries食物 all afternoon. I'd like to buy groceries for the rest of my life. Yeah, well, yeah, right.
And I'm going to buy groceries for the rest of my life. Now, would I rather have grocery prices go up or down If I'm gonna be buying groceries tomorrow and next week, next month, next year? And the answer is obviously, if I'm a buyer, I would I will do better if prices are lower. We have no, we're not good at forecasting market. So I mean I'm good at forecasting markets. I mean knew that we were getting enormous bargains in the mid seventies70年代中期. We knew that the market went crazy to some extent in the late nineties90年代末, but we don't have much. We we don't spend any time. Charlie and I spend no time thinking or talking about what the stock market is going to do, because we don't know. Uh, we do know sometimes we're getting very good value for our money when we buy some some stocks and bonds债券, as it may be. But we are not operating on the basis of any kind of macro forecasts宏观预测, uh, uh, about stocks. And there's always a list of reasons you gave it to you. There's always a list of reasons why the country will have problems tomorrow and there. But there's always a list of opportunities which don't get mentioned quite as often.
So we don't sit down and make a list of the bad things that are happening in the economy and the good things that are happening. And therefore expecting the stock market, it might not. It doesn't behave that way.
So we don't sit down and make a list of the bad things that are happening in the economy and the good things that are happening. And therefore expecting the stock market, it might not it doesn't behave that way. Even if you are correctly forecast. Some of the bad things are good things overall. I'm gonna Oh, I'm an enormous ball on the country. I mean over time. I mean this is the most remarkable a success story in the history of the world. If you think about it, I mean in 1790, we had less than 4 million people in this country. We had there were 290 million people in China, a hundred million people in europe, you know, and and they all have the same intellect we had there in the same general climate. They have lots of natural resources. And 215 years later, 3.9 million people, I think, actually, uh, you know I have 30% or so of the world's GDP. So it does not make sense to bet against America. That doesn't mean all our policies are smart or anything, but I would not I do not get pessimistic on the country. You know I worry about the the big the big worry is is what can be done by uh, either terrorists or government governments that have access to nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons. But In terms of the basic economics of the country, your children are going to live better than you live. And your grandchildren are gonna live better than you and your children live. And and we we do not focus on on on on on macro factors. Should charlie?
Charlie, well, I agree with you. Economics of the country are probably going on increase for a considerable period ahead. But I suspect that in very important ways, we are at or near the apex of a great civilization.
You heard it here First, folks. Oh, nuclear, chemical, biological. But I I do not feel that way, but uh. Thank god, but I I do not feel that way. But uh, you'll get to see which one of us is right 20 or 30 years from now. But ah. I have seen more people pass up opportunities. Uh, because They get focused on a single economic variable or a single problem of the country faces. Uh, and I forgot about about a good thing. If you can buy very good businesses at attractive prices. It's crazy to say. I think i'll sit this out because it might get a little cheaper next year or something of the sort. And because the world is gonna go to hell, ah, we just we never operate that. We never decided not to buy a business. We like because of a macro view anyway. No, yeah. Okay, yeah. I really agree with you. I've been working on it for years.
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