英文早读第106篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。
There is one thing of which I can assure you. If good performance of the fund is even a minor objective, any portfolio encompassing one hundred stocks (whether the manager is handling one thousand dollars or one billion dollars) is not being operated logically. The addition of the one hundredth stock simply can't reduce the potential variance in portfolio performance sufficiently to compensate for the negative effect its inclusion has on the overall portfolio expectation.
有一件事我可以向你确认。如果一个基金有甚至一点积极的表现,任何投资组合包含一百个股票(无论管理者管理一千美金还是十亿美金)都不会在符合逻辑地运作。给第100个股票再增加一个简单来说不能有效减少在组合中表现的潜在差异以抵消他的纳入对整体组合预期的消极影响。
Anyone owning such numbers of securities after presumably studying their investment merit (and I don't care how prestigious their labels) is following what I call the Noah School of Investing - two of everything. Such investors should be piloting arks. While Noah may have been acting in accord with certain time-tested biological principles, the investors have left the track regarding mathematical principles. (I only made it through plane geometry, but with one exception, I have carefully screened out the mathematicians from our Partnership.)
任何人持有如此数量的股票在假定研究他们的投资优点(我不关心他们的标签多么有声望)都遵循我说的诺亚投资学派——每个东西两份。然而诺亚或许在遵循某些久经考验的生物学原则,但这些投资者却在数学原则上脱了轨。(我仅仅通过了平面几何,但是有一个例外,我已经小心翼翼地将数学家从我们的合伙人中踢出了。)
Of course, the fact that someone is behaving illogically in owning one hundred securities doesn't prove our case. While they may be wrong in overdiversifying, we have to affirmatively reason through a proper diversification policy in terms of our objectives.
当然,事实是一个人不符合逻辑地行事拥有100个股票也不能证明我们的案子。虽然他们在过度多样化上错了,我们也肯定有理由有一个合适的多样化政策以考虑到我们的目标。
The optimum portfolio depends on the various expectations of choices available and the degree of variance in performance which is tolerable. The greater the number of selections, the less will be the average year-to-year variation in actual versus expected results. Also, the lower will be the expected results, assuming different choices have different expectations of performance.
合适的组合取决于不同的可获得的选择的期望值和可容忍的在表现上的差异程度。选择的数量越多,平均年化实际相比于预期结果的差异就越小。同样,假如不同的选择有不同的表现预期,预期结果将更差。
78.presumably:假定
79.merit:优点;价值;功绩;长处
80.prestigious:有声望的;有威望的
81.deviation:偏差;偏离;背离;违背
82.long-winded:长篇大论的;冗长枯燥的;啰嗦的
83.leveling:平衡;水准测量
84.sour:酸的;有酸味的;阴郁的;闷闷不乐的
85.bounce:弹起;反弹;颠动
86.tolerable:可接受的;可容忍的;过得去的
87.affirmatively:肯定地;断然地
88.arks:方舟
89.geometry:几何学
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