Joe Duran 在周中接收CNBC采访中的总结挺精辟的:
"Micro Story with individual companies is good right now, the macro picture isn't so bullish."
目前的宏观经济情况:通胀上升(超过2%,预期2.5%),工资上升,国债收益率上升(今年升息4次的概率很高了),almost Full Employment,大宗商品价格上升,美元指数稍弱,美国紧缩的Monetary Policy(升息和缩表),最后是税改。
综合这些看来,市场过去几天和未来的波动估计集中在于price in 未来通胀上行的风险。
Late stage of economic cycle表现为:rising equities, rising inflation, tightening monetary policy, higher commodity prices, higher volatility
Joe也总结了他推荐的sectors: energy, basic materials, bank (升息),Large company with global exposure (美元走弱)
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