主要的思维方式:
发现一个和世人观念相左的事实,并试图解释。模型简单。结果佐证了金融系统的发展和FG相互促进的功用,并预测了今后FG的趋势。
FG symbol: international trade/foreign exchange reserves/SWF
but, the stylized fact is : global trade and global cross-border holdings of financial instruments that are accounted for by the advanced economies
发达经济体FG的原因:capital account liberalization, financial deregulation, and falling communications costs,financial innovation,SPV,the creation of the euro(substantial reduction in home bias and increased financial trade within the euro area)
之后文章做了文献综述,阐述了接下来要回归的几个变量跟FG的关系:(a) trade openness; (b) domestic financial development; (c) economic development; (d) country size; (e) capital account restrictions; (f) EU integration; and (g) financial centers
回归模型和结果:
结论:a strong complementarity between domestic financial development and external holdings, rather than substitutability between the two.
预测:FG depends on depends on the deepening of domestic financial systems, overall economic development, as well as the pace of trade integration. 发达经济体和发展中经济体今后的FG特征仍旧不一样。过度宣传金融风险而压抑金融业,是不利于长期发展的。
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