22.8.27周六原则：如何有效决策

22.8.27周六原则

学习如何有效决策

一、转述

让潜意识的决策过程“意识化”，让“下意识”的过程“意识化”。潜意识做了决策，意识把决策过程拿出来复盘。达利欧说，这是非常有意义的事情。

二，转述和运用

虽然做得还不够好，但是近10年来，一直在做这件事。

标志性的事件是“把带出一支高素质的队伍做为工作的最高追求”成为蛙沃的核心价值观。

为了保持组织的敏捷高效，需要让听到到炮火的人呼唤炮火。把决策前置，才能抓住瞬息万变的市场机会。才能在战略机会点分配战略资源。

对公司高层做价值观方法论培训，落脚点是决策过程培训。这样做为创始人才能空出来，务虚地思考、规划、布局公司未来三年、五年、十年的发展。

附原文如下：

As a professional decision maker, I have spent my life studying how to make decisions effectively and have constantly looked for rules and systems that will improve my odds of being right and ending up with more of whatever it is that I am after.

One of the most important things I’ve come to understand is that most of the processes that go into everyday decision making are subconscious and more complex than is widely understood. For example, think about how you choose and maintain a safe distance behind the car in front of you when you are driving. Now describe the process in enough detail that someone who has never driven a car before can do it as well as you can, or so that it can be programmed into the computer that controls an autonomous car. I bet you can’t.

Now think about the challenge of making all of your decisions well, in a systematic, repeatable way, and then being able to describe the processes so clearly and precisely that anyone else can make the same quality decisions under the same circumstances. That is what I aspire to do and have found to be invaluable, even when highly imperfect.

作为一个职业的决策者，一生中我一直在研究如何有效决策，并不断在寻找能降低犯错概率、实现更好效果的决策规则与系统。 

我了解到的最重要的东西之一是，大部分日常决策是潜意识性的过程，且比通常认为的要复杂。例如，想想你在开车时，如何和前面的车保持安全距离。现在请你详细描述这个过程，以让从来没有开过车的人也能做得和你一样好，或者让它能输入计算机，成为自动驾驶汽车的控制程序。我敢打赌，你做不到。

现在想想这个挑战：用系统化、可复制的方式把你的所有决策做好，同时还能以非常清晰准确的方式描述决策程序，从而让处在同样情况下的任何人都能做出同样的高质量决策。这正是我渴望做的事，而且我发现朝这方面努力价值无限，尽管我距离完美还很远。