The comparison with Britain is instructive. London is gambling the health of all its trading and geopolitical relationships on the dubious claims of a bunch of serially disproven political hucksters and is drifting into territory that no-one, said hucksters included, seem to have a clue how to navigate. Germany’s problem, by contrast, is a deadlocked coalition negotiation—a novelty in the federal republic, as the country’s president Frank-Walter Steinmeier noted in his measured address yesterday, but one for whose management and resolution the constitution provides clear procedures. Exports are booming, growth is strong and the state is running an surplus of about €20bn ($23bn). One factor in the talks’ breakdown was disagreement about how to spend all that money. Britain could well use a problem like that.
The reality in Germany is as distinct from the all-consuming, deer-in-the-headlights shemozzle of British politics as it is from the greatest crises of the country’s own recent history. It does not compare to the political turmoil of, for example, the Berlin Wall’s construction in 1961; of the collapse of Willy Brandt’s chancellorship in 1974 over an espionage scandal; of the “German autumn” in 1977 when the Bonn government seemed powerless against bombings, hijackings and assassinations; of the terminal crisis of Helmut Kohl’s chancellorship amid donation scandals in the 1990s; of the huge weekly demonstrations at soaring unemployment in the early-2000s.
Resolving the current predicament could take a few months. But spare us overwrought talk of German ungovernability. The country’s overhang government—the afterlife of a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition that often seemed to be running on autopilot anyway—is functioning smoothly. Most day-to-day services (schools, infrastructure, policing) are provided by theLänder, or states. Recently the Netherlands, Spain and Belgium have gone 7, 10 and 18 months respectively without government, in each case enjoying above-trend growth throughout the period in question. And Mrs Merkel’s legitimacy is uncontested; she remains the second most popular politician in Germany after Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister. Yesterday’s snap poll showed that 58% of voters want her to stay chancellor. In her party recent events have, if anything, strengthened her as ranks have closed.
All of which helps to explain why the DAX stock-market index in Frankfurt rose yesterday (it is up another 1% today at the time of writing) and why the press here is broadly sanguine. “We can cope with a little uncertainty” runs a commentary inDer Spiegel; “National crisis? Hardly”, mockedDie Zeit; “Strength lies in upheaval”, begins a cautiously optimistic commentary in today’sDie Welt(reversing Mrs Merkel’s saying “Strength lies in tranquility”). In the words of Mr Schäuble—not a man know for boosterism—Germany faces a test, not a crisis.
It would be churlish to deny that a Germany distracted by domestic politics for a number of months is bad news for Europe. A prolonged government-formation process in Berlin narrows next year’s rare window between big elections in which the EU and the euro zone can take big decisions about the future. Reforms to the currency union, common solutions to the migration crisis and Brexit will all be on the agenda at next month’s summit in Brussels, for example, and Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, wants a deal on further euro-zone integration by next June.
Nonetheless, by talking down Germany’s ability to act now, it is possible to overstate its willingness to do so before. Take those summit priorities. Mrs Merkel has long been sceptical about the sort of euro-zone integration demanded by France’s Emmanuel Macron, cautious about grand plans to redesign the EU’s border regime and intransigent on Brexit (pace London-based commentators, she was never on the verge of intervening to improve the terms on offer). There is a very small gap between the probable German negotiating position at the upcoming summit and what that position would have been had Mrs Merkel won a storming victory in September and formed a coalition within days. Deadlock in Berlin does not deny Europe its great helmsman—because Germany was never that helmsman in the first place.
This speaks to the broader folly of the “Germany in meltdown” tendency, which imagines the country’s current strength and prosperity as the fruit of ambitious, even hyperactive leadership. Doing so gives Mrs Merkel and her compatriots at once too much and too little credit. It overstates the vision and dynamism of Germany’s political class but also overlooks the country’s underlying stability, how little tinkering (in the short term, at least) its state and economy urgently require and the intricate balancing acts that go into its multi-party governments. The current uncertainty may last a while. But it will also illustrate the effective operation of a sophisticated constitutional democracy, in a successful country for whose problems most would trade their own in an instant.
网友评论