Gaining an edge

1988 US scholars David Montgomery and Marvin Lieberman write "First-Mover Advantage", outlining the competitive advantages of being first to market.

先进入市场什么好处：

抢占消费者比例市场份额

建立消费者心智

1995 Amazon.com launches, the first of a new breed (物种) of online retailers.

Amazon：非常有创意的公司

1997-2000 Adopting the "be first" mantra (咒语), dot-com companies race to market; many fail when the promised advantages do not materialize (实现).

1998 Montgomery and Lieberman question their original findings in their paper, "First-Mover (Dis)Advantages."

2001 Amazon.com returns its first profit.

The company's first-mover advantage were significant, but a good business model mattered more.

First-movers have no competition and have the potential to become market leader . . .

. . . but unless the market is static (静止的), and technological innovation is limited, the risk of failure is high.

不仅和企业自身有关，和社会动态相关。

如果外部市场动态比较高，科技更新比较快，那么你要去做first mover 就会风险很大。

如果外部市场是静态的，科技发展有了限度，那么first mover就比较安全。

Later entrants (进入者) enter a recognized market and know what mistakes to aviod.

They stand to benefit most in a rapidly changing market, in which technological innovation is advanced.

In order to gain an edge, either be first, or be better.

不是变动的市场，成为第一个。变动的市场，如果进去，要了解哪些是不能犯得错误，并且要吸收前车之鉴。

If you need to buy a book online, which website do you visit first?

If you want to research the author of the book, which search engine do you use?

全世界第二大的搜索引擎：Youtube

The answers, most probably, are Amazon and Google, respectively (分别地).

Such is the dominance (占据) of these two Internet giants that their names define their respective market.

Both organizations have a significant edge (优势) in the markets they lead, but they achieved that dominate by different means (方式).

Amazon, launched in 1995, gained its advantage by being the first business to enter the online retail market, establishing its brand name, and building a loyal customer base.

establish/build the brand

Google, by contrast, was by no means first.

When Google launched in 1998, the market was already dominated by several large players;

Google's edge came from offering a superior product — not only was it faster, but it produced more accurate search results than any of its competitors.

Getting into a market first has significant advantages, but there are also benefits to being second.

The key is that in order to gain a competitive edge in the market, a business needs either to be first, or it needs to be better.

The benefits of being first into a market are known as "first-mover advantage", a term popularized in 1988 by Stanford Business School professor David Montgomery and his co-author, Marvin Lieberman.

Although introduced a decade previously, Montgomery and Lieberman's idea took particular hold during the dot-com bubble (泡沫) between 1997 and 2000.

Spurred on by the example of Amazon, businesses spent millions pitching (竞价) themselves headlong (迅猛的) into new online markets.

Conventional wisdom was that being first ensured that the company's brand name became synonymous (同义的) with that segment (细分市场), and that early market dominance would create barriers (障碍) to entry for subsequent (后续的) competition.

第一点，你公司品牌的名字和你要做的市场画等号，那样你就不需要那么多宣传，消费者可以直接认可你的品牌。

第二点，很好的构建准入门槛，那样后续进来的人就要付出惨痛代价。

In the end, however, overspending (过度花销), overhype (估值过高), and overreaching into markets where little demand existed was the downfall (倒下) of many fledgling (新兴的) dot-coms.

Hype circle：炒作周期

一些公司在市场的估值有可能因为在一个风口上，有了风口，大家对他的估值就会虚高。

一般比较合理的资本和市场资本的管理方式，都会在hype circle上卖掉。

快滴，多花一点钱，声音造大，从而可以卖更多的钱。

With notable (著名的) exceptions, businesses found that promised returns were not being realized and funds quickly ran short — and for many of these first-movers, failure followed.

你做的时候要想清楚做这些事情的时候，是成为了那些著名的特例还是实际上的炮灰。

Being first out of the block (一群) undoubtedly has its advantages, and in the case of the dot-coms, those advantages were exaggerated to the extreme.

First-movers often enjoy premium prices (溢价), capture significant market share (捕获市场份额), and have a brand name strongly linked to the market itself.

First-movers also have more time than later entrants (进入者) to perfect (精益) processes and systems, and to accumulate market knowledge.

They can also secure advantageous physical locations (a prime location on a main street of a city, for example), secure the employment of talented staff, or access beneficial terms (有利的条款) with key suppliers (who may also be eager to enter the new market).

Funds run short (资金断裂)

Hype circle：炒作周期

先发者的资本优势也好，时间优势也好，价格优势也好，是不是能转化成为了准入的门槛，让其他进入的时候付出更大的代价。

reveiw: 溢价 （一块钱的东西，我定四块钱，因为只有我有），重要的市场成分，品牌，entry barriers（时间用在精益生产流产，服务流程，系统体系，积累市场的知识，好的地址，员工雇佣，供应商有利的条款）

Additionally, first-movers may be able to build switching costs (转换成本) into their product, making it expensive or inconvenient for customers to switch to a rival offering once an initial purchase has been made.

Gillette，刮胡刀，刀片贵，刀架便宜。

Qwerty，如果不用它，消费者就会再次消耗学习成本。

游戏，play box/station

航空公司

Gillette, for example, having invented the safety razor (刀片) in 1901, has consistently leveraged its first-mover advantage (利用先发优势) to create new products, such as a "shaving system" that combines cheap headlines with expensive razor blades.

leverage advantage 先发优势

First-mover advantages accrue (积累) when a company gains a first-mover opportunity (through proficiency (能力) or luck) and is able to maintain an edge（保持这样的优势） despite subsequent entry.

In the case of Amazon.com, first-mover advantage consisted of a combination of factors.

In the newly emerging (新兴的) e-commerce market, customers were eager to try online purchasing, and Amazon was well placed to exploit (挖掘) this growing curiosity.

growing curiosity 只是一个先发的优势，而不能作为公司长治久安的立足之本，因为任何东西都有被熟知的时候。

Books represented a small and safe initial (首次的) purchase, and Amazon's simple web design made buying easy and enjoyable.

Early sales enabled the organization to adapt and perfect its systems, and to adjust its website to match customer need — adding, for example, its OneClick ordering system (一键购物系统) to enable purchases without entering payment details.

Amazon was also able to build distribution systems that ensured quick and reliable delivery of its products.

Although competitors could replicate (复制) these systems, customers already trusted Amazon.（赢得的战略时间）

The brand loyalty the organization enjoyed created significant emotional switching costs.

Even today, Amazon enjoys the benefits of this trust and loyalty, and almost a third of all US book sales are made via Amazon.com.

A recent example of how important first-mover advantage remains are the "patent (专利) wars" contested between most of the leading smartphone makers (including Apple, Samsung, and HTC).

Patents help a company to defend technological advantage.

In the hyper competitive smartphone industry, being first to market with a new technological feature offers critical, albeit (虽然) short-term, advantage.

In an industry in which consumers' switching costs are high, even short-term advantages can have a significant impact on revenue.

Since the publication of Montgomery and Lieberman's original paper in 1988, academic research has indicated that significant advantages accrue (积累) to market pioneers, which can be directly attributable to the timing (时机) of entry.

The irony is that in a retrospective paper that appeared in 1998, "First-Mover (Dis) Advantages", Montgomery and Lieberman themselves backed off their original claims concerning the benefits of being the first to enter a market.

Building on the work of, among others, US academics Peter Golder and Gerard Tellis in 1993, Montgomery and Lieberman's 1998 paper questioned the entire notion (观点) of first-mover advantage.

In their research, Golder and Tellis had found that almost half the first-movers in their sample of 500 brands, in 50 product categories, failed.

Moreover, they found that there were few cases where later entrants had not become profitable or even dominant players — in fact, their research identified that the failure rate for first-movers was 47 percent, compared to only 8 percent for fast followers.

fast followers 对行业也是非常敏感的，虽然慢了一两步，但是这一两步他们就从先发者那里吸收了经验。先发者如果不能把先机成为护城河，并且运气不好，肯定不会走的长久。

那先发者没有经验怎么办，没有标准怎么办，不知道前面如何怎么办，就是把一个团队里面的两个人作为探路的角色，后面的之后看情况。

The challenge for first-movers is that the market is often unproven.

Industry pioneers leap into (置身于) the dark without fully understanding customer needs or market dynamics.

First-movers often launch untried products onto unsuspecting customers; and it is rare that they get it right first time.

小米，淘宝

Large companies may be able to take the losses of such early-market entry mistakes; small companies, on the other hand, may soon find that their cash is running out and their tenuous (脆弱的) business models are collapsing.

Entrepreneurship (企业家精神)

Incentive (诱因)

Later entrants have the advantage of learning from the mistakes of the first-movers, and from entering a proven market.

They are also able to avoid costly investment in risky and potentially flawed processes or technologies.

First-movers, by contrast, may have accrued significant "sunk costs (沉没成本)" (past investment) in old, less-efficient technologies, and may be less able to adapt as the industry matures.

Followers can enter at the point at which technology and processes are relatively well established, with both cost and risks being lower.

先发优势，品牌忠实度，确实在生活中很多东西都有先入为主，如果你产品好，服务好，创新快，那么这个“第一印象”会一直保持，人们就不想再费心思尝试其他的。

手机专利其实抢的就是时间，我在短时间内有效的抢占消费者数量，从而培养品牌忠实度。

进入市场的时机非常重要，因为大多都是从小公司到大公司的，你能忍受的财务消耗都是暂时的，你的士气持续性也是有限的，在科技和各方面准备都适中的时候。也许是进入市场最好的时候，非最先，但对市场敏感度快，有相应技术，财力，人员，硬件支持。

Followers may have to fight to overcome the first-movers' brand loyalty, but simply offering a superior product that better addresses (处理) customer needs is often sufficient to secure a market.

superior product 更好的产品

Brand recognition is one thing, but technical and product superiority can give that all-important competitive edge.

Moreover, with investment costs being much lower, followers often have surplus (额外多的) cash to use on marketing, thereby offsetting the branding advantages of the first-mover.

When Google, for example, entered the Internet search business in 1998, the market was dominated by the likes of Yahoo, Lycos, and AltaVista, all of whom had established customer bases (客户群) and brand recognition.

However, Google was able to learn from the mistakes of these earlier entrants and, quite simply, build a better product.

The organization realized that with so much information on the Internet people wanted search results that were comprehensive (全面的) and relevant.

The various market incumbents (任职者) offered a variety of systems for filtering search results, but Google was able to take the best of these systems and build its own unique algorithm (算法) that led to market dominance.

Good artists copy; great artists steal.

艺术家从本质上不是创新，而是去借鉴，不留痕迹。

If later entrants can leapfrog pioneers, companies could be better off entering late.

leapfrog ：超越   better off 收益

There are numerous examples in corporate history of first-movers that were unable to achieve or maintain a competitive advantage.

Famous failures in the online sphere (领域) include Friends Reunited and MySpace.

sphere/field

Although both companies still exist, their first-mover advantage was not sufficient to offset (抵消) the might (强大的) (and product superiority) of Facebook.

Global scale (全球范围)

Similarly, eToys.com, launched in 1999, was one of a new breed of online retailers, but first-mover advantage was not enough to sustain the business and the company declared bankruptcy (破产) in 2001 — by coincidence, the same year that Amazon started to sell toys.

Resurrected (复生) some years later, eToys.com is now owned by Toys "R" Us.

The online clothing retailer boo.com is an example of a first-mover that had technological superiority, but was ahead of its time.

The site was too resource-heavy for most consumers' slow Internet connections.

Start-ups overestimate the change in 3 years, and big companies underestimate the change in 10 years.

进入市场要和市场成熟度相匹配

Launched in 1999, boo.com went into receivership (破产接管) the following year — being first is not a guarantee of success if the basic business model is flawed.

本节还是主要讲进入市场时机的重要性。

后发制胜的诀窍在于你提供更好的产品，用实力说话，构建自己的品牌效应，那样自然的各种优势就会倾向于你这边。但是作为后发者，除了上一节所说的，你也要是一个对市场极其敏感的人外，你还得是一个会看时机的人，因为再好的企划，再好的产品也抵不住市场的不兼容。

Despite the evidence presented by Golder and Tellis, and examples such as Google, it remains the case that first-mover advantage has captured corporate imagination.

Mirroring (折射) the earlier dot-com gold rush (淘金热), the recent boom in the market for web-based smartphone - and tablet-accessed applications (the "app" market) is fueled (助推) by a desire to be first.

Thousands of apps have launched in the hope of staking their claims (获得) on lucrative (有利可图的) segments of this new market.

But success is not guaranteed — a 2012 study revealed that on average, 65 percent of users delete apps within 90 days of installing them.

群氓效应：mobbing 看大家都在做我也要做

The reason a first-mover does not always yield its promised advantages is that much depends on timing (时机), and therefore luck.

In their 2005 paper, "The Half-Truth of First-Mover Advantage", US business scholars Fernando Suarez and Gianvito Lanzolla identified technological innovation and the speed at which the market is developing as crucial in determining whether or not being a first-mover is advantageous.

科技创新，市场发展的速度

Their findings suggest that when a market is slow-moving and technological evolution is limited, first-mover advantage can be significant.

They give the example of the market for vacuum cleaners (吸尘器), and, in particular, of the long-term market leader, Hoover.

Until the relatively recent introduction of Dyson cleaners, the market was benign (仁慈的) and technological advancement slow.

Having been first to market in 1908, Hoover enjoyed several decades of advantage — an advantage that was (and, in some places, still is) reflected in the widespread use of the company's brand name as the verb "to hoover."

In the other industries, however, where technological change or market evolution is rapid, the first-movers are often at a disadvantage (处于劣势).

The first search engines are examples of businesses that had too much invested in early iterations (反复) of a technology to keep up with the rapid pace of change.

Early advantage quickly becomes obsolete (过时的) in changeable markets.

As the market evolves, later entrants are those that seem to be cutting edge (前沿的), offering innovative features that build on the market-knowledge as well as learning from the mistakes of the first-mover.

cutting edge    adj，先进的

The first-mover may have enjoyed short-lived (短命的) advantage but in dynamic (变化多端的) markets such an advantage is rarely durable (可持续的).

short-lived /  long-lived

Even Apple, who enjoyed significant early-entrant advantage in the smartphone market with the iPhone, is not immune from (免疫于…) first-mover disadvantage.

immune from  

Graphical User Interface (有画面感的用户交互界面)

Competitors, Samsung in particular, were able to listen to customer complaints about iPhones, analyze customer needs, and produce product with features and functionality welcomed by the market.

Apple, locked into previous technology iterations . . .

. . . took time to react and iPhone sales suffered as a result.

If you do things well, do them better.

Do not be blackmailed or captured by those sunk cost, you need to cut it out and start a new.

一个市场人们总是前赴后继。成功很多时候是在已有资本上靠运气的。后来者大多时候是比先入者占优势的，但也要看是什么样子的市场，动态？静态？

先入者要舍得舍，这样才不会被抛弃。

To gain an edge, therefore, you do not always need to be first.

Instead, US multinational Procter & Gamble, for example, prefers only to enter those markets in which it can establish a strong number one or number two position over the long-term — rarely is this achieved in a blind rush to be first.

fast consumption industry 快速消费市场

Built to Last (《基业长青》)

blind rush

Procter & Gamble seeks markets that are demographically (人口层面地) and structurally (结构层面地) attractive, with lower capital requirements, and higher margins.

人口：适龄群体，男女比例，收入划分

结构：竞争对手，供货商，渠道

But most importantly, the organization insists on a deep understanding (深刻的了解) of customer needs in any market they enter.

是否对消费者需求有深刻了解。

In other words, they would rather enter mature markets than be first into new ones.

The company values long-term relationships (长期的伙伴关系) with its customers and suppliers; its view of innovation is different from small companies who, in attempting to capture market share, strive to gain an edge through the introduction of disruptive technology (颠覆式的科技) — innovative technology that seeks to destabilize the existing market.

Procter & Gamble, perhaps heeding (留心) the research, considers such strategies to be short-lived.

They realize that overly rapid innovation runs the risk of cannibalizing (同类相食) their own sales and reducing the returns on new product investment.

In the market for disposable (一次性的) baby diapers, for example, Procter & Gamble was more than ten years behind the first mover.

The company's now famous Pampers (帮宝适) brand was launched in 1961, following some way behind Johnson & Johnson's (强生公司) Chux brand, which was launched in 1949.

At the time, disposable diapers were a new innovation, and customers were wary of their use.

Procter & Gamble waited until customers had come to accept the product before entering the market.

Moreover, they spent nearly five years researching and addressing (处理) each of the major problems with Chux and developed a product that was more adsorbent (吸水效果的), had lower leakage, was more comfortable for the baby, offered two sizes, and could be produced at a significantly lower cost.

Today, Forbes magazine lists Pampers as one of the world's most powerful brands, valued at over $8.5 billion, with the diapers being purchased by 25 million consumers in over 100 countries.

By contrast, Chux was phased out (移除) by Johnson & Johnson in the 1970s due to shrinking (正在减少的) sales.

As long as there is a food in your hand, you will fear no worries. (手里有粮，心中不慌。)

不管大小，要对客户需求深刻了解，从人口，结构入手。

大公司资本充足，可以试错，可以有“耐心”，但不代表小公司就没有试错的机会，他们可以快速试错，不要太过在意“沉默成本”，因为太过纠结，只会损失更大。

Securing a foothold (落脚点)

In reality, then, while it is readily assumed that speed is good when entering a market, gaining an edge might depend less on timing than it does on appropriateness (合适).

readily assumed 早就打算

Whether a company is first, second, or last to market is important; but it is less important than the suitability of a company's products or services to that market, and its ability to deliver on brand promises.

Under promise (不要许诺太多) , over deliver (达成的超越期待).

韬光养晦

Amazon may have enjoyed lasting first-mover advantage, but that alone is insufficient to account for (说明) its phenomenal success.

Amazon leverages (利用) its first-mover advantage into a sustainable competitive edge.

先出发的人更要抬头看天，脚下看路，你要了解你所在的市场，与此同时明白自己的核心竞争力是什么？

Its website is continually made easier to use . . .

. . . it offers a range of complimentary products (配饰性商品). . .

. . . and it continues to drive down costs, enabling it to offer market-beating prices (市场最低定价).

Most notably, Amazon did not return a profit until 2001 — the company spent its earlier years building a better product.

Critical mass (绝对数量)

Coupon (优惠券)

The foundations of success may have been laid by first-mover advantage, but Amazon's edge has been built on long-term good business practice.

时间很重要，但比不过时机；

市场很重要，但不上产品质量好。

先发优势好不好呢？当然好，但是有了先发优势不意味着不一定确定最后的胜利，后来者都有能后来居上。这个关键在于几个因素：

进入的市场是活跃的还是温和的（dynamic or benign)

企业是否能有自己的立足之地（foldhold），能够对市场有很好的，清晰和深刻的理解。

First-movers undoubtedly (毫无疑问地) have a natural competitive edge.

Whether it is a lasting impression on customers, strong brand recognition, high switching costs, control of scarce (稀缺的) resources, or the advantages of experience, that edge can help to secure a strong, and long-term, foothold in the market.

长期影响--品牌认知度--转移成本--情感成本--（talented people/location/experience)稀有成本

Their brand name is synonymous with the market.

=it is a lasting impression  on customers

But as research shows, second-movers, and their followers, may sometimes be in an advantageous position.

1.Learning from the mistakes of early entrants,  2. they frequently offer superior products at lower prices.

With the aid of skillful marketing, these benefits can be leveraged to offset the advantages enjoyed by first-movers.

To become a market leader, a business needs either to be first, and impressive, or it needs to be better.

The companies we remember, the Amazons and the Googles, are those that were either first or better — the ones we forget are those that had no edge at all.

Plato：To suffer the penalty (惩罚) of too much haste, which is too little speed.

创业到成为一家伟大的公司，也许每个过程有快有慢，但是平均下来就要比别人快。

如果用时间换空间，我就要打的快。什么是时间换空间，意思是时间在手上是一个比较充分的资源，但是市场份额上，空间可能有局促性，所以一定要用速度，那么速度是什么，叫迅速失败 ，迅速试错，然后在我的空间上做出成长。

考研：什么事时间？  两年读研究生。什么是空间？未来找工作有更多的选择或者选择一个我心仪的工作。在考研过程中和考上研究生的过程中最重要的是你的时间有没有充分的利用，然后进行大量的试错，然后从当中汲取经验。时间打空间，行动要快，空间换时间一定要打的准，我不着急出招，但是我一出招，肯定准，比如谷歌，宝洁。

初创企业：小，快，灵  (团队要小，速度要快，不断调整和市场的关系）

大企业：稳，准，狠

亚马逊创始人：

Born on January 12, 1964 in Albuquerque, New Mexico, US, Jeff Bezos had an early love of science and computers.

He studied computer science and electrical engineering (电气工程) at Princeton University (普林斯顿大学), and graduated summa cum laude (最优等生) in 1986.

Bezos started his career on Wall Street, and by 1990 had become the youngest senior vice-president (资深副总裁) at the investment company D.E. Shaw.

Four years later, in 1994, he quit his lucrative job to open Amazon.com.

空间好的情况下，辞职，有了明确想法。

He was barely 30 years old at the time. As with many Internet startups, Bezos, with just a handful of employees, created the new business in his garage (车库).

But as operations grew, they moved into a small house.

The Amazon.com site was launched officially on July 16, 1995. Amazon become a public limited company in 1997.

上市意味着资金没什么问题了。

某些层面上，先以快打慢，之后空间打时间。

The company's first year of profit was 2001. Today, Bezos is listed by Forbes magazine as one of the wealthiest people in the US.

And Amazon stands as one of the biggest global success stories in the history of the Internet.

1.Be first or be better

2.Gaining an edge (构建竞争优势)

3.The first-mover advantage (先发优势)

4.Competitive advantage (竞争优势)

5.Customer mindset (消费者心智)

6.Category (种类)

7.Flying warehouse (空中仓库)

8. Oriental mysticism (东方神秘主义)

9.By no means (绝不是)

10.Bait (诱饵) and hook (钩)

11.Market entry barrier (市场准入门槛)

整体总结：

先进入市场的未必就是一直能待在市场里的。

你想做的好，你除了开始的市场份额，你的品牌知名度，你最重要的是你的产品过硬。

前面进来的，你想保住你的位置，你的产品符合这个市场的需求吗？能够经受这个动荡的社会状态吗？你做好有沉没成本的心理准备了吗？你觉得你现在的状态能够以时间换空间吗？

后面进市场的，你总结了前面的所犯的错误吗？你的技术，你的产品跟上了吗？你消费者需求摸清了吗？你觉得你现在是从空间入手，还是时间入手啊？

不管先进的，后进的，不动就只能等着出局啦！