英文早读第112篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。
Market Forecasting
市场预测
Ground Rule No.6 (from our November packet) says:" I am not in the business of predicting general stock market or business fluctuations. If you think I can do this, or think it is essential to an investment program, you should not be in the partnership."
基本准则6（从我们11月文件）中说：“我不是在做预测股市或者业务起伏的生意。如果你认为我可以做到，或者认为这对投资是必须的，你不应该在合伙基金。”
Of course, this rule can be attacked as fuzzy, complex, ambiguous, vague, etc. Nevertheless, I think the point is well understood by the great majority of our partners. We don't buy and sell stocks based upon what other people think the stock market is going to do (I never have an opinion) but rather upon what we think the company is going to do. The course of stock market will determine, to a great degree, when we will be right, but the accuracy of our analysis of the company will largely determine whether we will be right. In other words, we tend to concentrate on what should happen, not when it should happen.
当然，这个规则被迷惑，复杂，模棱两可，含糊不清等等攻击。然而，我认为这一点会被绝大多数合伙人很好地理解。我们不会买卖股票基于其他人认为股市会干嘛（我从来没有这个观点）而是基于我们认为公司会干嘛。股市在很大程度上决定我们什么时候会对，但是对公司分析的准确度很大程度决定我们是否会对。换句话说，我们试图聚焦在什么会发生，而不是什么时候会发生。
In our department store business I can say with considerable assurance that December will be better than July. (Notice how sophisticated I have already become about retailing.) What really counts is whether December is better than last December by a margin greater than our competitors' and what we are doing to set the stage for future Decembers. However,in our partnership business I not only can't say whether December will be better than July, but I can't even say that December won't produce a very large loss. It sometimes does. Our investments are simply not aware that it takes 365-1/4 days for the earth to make it around the sun. Even worse, they are not aware that your celestial orientation (and that of the IRS) requires that I report to you upon the conclusion of each orbit (the earth's - not ours). Therefore, we have to use a standard other than the calendar to measure our progress. This yardstick is obviously the general experience in securities as measured by the Dow. We have a strong feeling that this competitor will do quite decently over a period of years (Chrismas will come even if it's in July) and if we keep beating our competitor we will have to do something better than "quite decently". It's something like a retailer measuring his sales gains and profit margins against Seas' - beat them every year and somehow you'll see daylight.
在我们百货商店业务我可以相当准确的说12月会比7月更好。（注意我已经在关于零售方面变的多么老练了。）真正重要的是12月是否比去年12月更好且大幅优于我们的竞争对手，以及我们正在做什么为未来的12月做准备。然而，在我们的合伙基金业务中，我不仅不能说12月是否会比7月份更好，我甚至不能说12月不会产生大的损失。他有时确实会发生。我们的投资不仅没意识到一年有365.25天用于地球绕太阳旋转。更糟糕的是，他们都没有意识到天上的起点，而需要我来报告你每一个轨道的结论（地球的——不是我们的）。因此，我们必须使用一个标准而不是日历来衡量我们的进展。这个标准很明显是股市的一般状况由道琼斯指数来衡量。我有强烈预感这个竞争对手将会在几年时间做的相当好（即使在7月份圣诞节也会来），并且如果我们保持击败对手我们将必须做些事情比“相当好”更好。这某种程度像一个零售员衡量他的销售利润和盈利水平相比于西斯百货——每年打败他们就总会看到曙光。
29.packet：小包裹；信息包；文件
30.fuzzy：不清楚的；模糊的；含糊的
31.ambiguous：模棱两可的；不明确的；含糊不清的
32.vague：模糊的；含糊的
33.sophisticated：复杂的；先进的；老练的
34.set the stage：为……打好基础；为……创造条件
35.celestial：天空的；天上的；神仙
36.resurrect：使复兴；使复活；起死回生
37.astrologer：占星家
38.quotation：引用；报价；行情；市价
39.silly：愚蠢的；傻的；荒唐的；没头脑的
40.liability：责任；负债；债务；义务
41.whereby：由此；借以；凭此
42.aberration：异常行为；反常现象
43.marvelous：了不起的；不平常的
44.articulation：关节；表达；发音；说话
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