The dollar reigns supreme in global finance. It accounts for a dominant share of international financial transactions and is the ultimate safe haven currency. But the US currency’s supremacy cannot be taken for granted. President Donald Trump may be sowing the seeds of its demise.
美元在全球金融中有着至高无上的地位。它占据了国际金融交易的主导份额，并且是终极的避险货币。但美元霸权不能被视为理所当然。美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)可能正在种下导致其灭亡的祸根。
Mr Trump has often called for a weaker dollar, apparently to counter other countries that he claims are taking unfair advantage of the US by weakening their currencies to boost exports. Talk is cheap, however, and such statements by themselves will hardly derail the dollar. The real damage to its standing is more insidious and comes from policies that are eroding America’s fiscal stability, its trustworthiness and the strength of its institutions.
特朗普经常呼吁让美元保持弱势，这显然是为了抗击那些他宣称通过削弱本币来增加出口从而占美国便宜的国家。然而，话语是廉价的，而这些话语本身很难让美元栽跟头。真正破坏美元地位的东西更为隐蔽，它来自侵蚀美国财政稳定、可靠性和制度强健度的政策。
In times of financial turmoil — including the global financial crisis, which originated in the US — panicky investors flood into US bond markets. No doubt the sheer size of the American government and corporate bond markets is a key factor. But there is something subtler and more important that accounts for the dollar’s status.
在金融动荡时期——包括源于美国的全球金融危机——恐慌的投资者涌入美国债券市场。毫无疑问，美国政府和公司债券市场的庞大规模本身是一个关键因素。但是有一些更微妙和更重要的因素可以解释美元的地位。
It comes down to trust. Flows into and out of currency and equity markets, where people make consequential financial decisions, show how trust matters even in seemingly cold-hearted and dispassionate decision-making.
归根结底是信任。货币和股票市场（人们做出重要金融决策的地方）的资金流入和流出表明，信任即使是在看上去冷酷无情的决策过程中也非常重要。
The institutions that engender and maintain the trust of both domestic and foreign investors include an open and transparent system of democratic government with checks and balances. This needs to be underpinned by a central bank free from direct political interference and the rule of law administered by an independent judiciary.
让国内外投资者产生并维持信任的制度包括一个开放而透明、有着制衡机制的民主政府。这需要有不受直接政治干预的中央银行、以及由独立司法机构执行的法治作支撑。
Trust in US institutions is why, despite the prospect of rising government debt levels and the economic uncertainty unleashed by Mr Trump, the dollar remains strong. But this strength could prove fleeting. At present, most international financial transactions are denominated and settled in dollars and often through American financial institutions. This would change rapidly if investors believed that reckless fiscal policies could heighten volatility and erode the dollar’s value.
美元面对美国政府债务水平上升前景以及特朗普带来的经济不确定性依然坚挺，其原因就在于人们对美国制度的信任。然而，美元的坚挺事实上可能会是短暂的。目前，大多数国际金融交易都以美元计价和结算，而且往往通过美国金融机构结算。如果投资者认为鲁莽的财政政策可能会加剧波动并削弱美元的价值，这种情况将会迅速发生变化。
As it is, the falling cost of transacting in other currencies and the rise of emerging market currencies such as China’s renminbi are already reducing the dollar’s role in denominating and settling cross-border transactions. China and South Korea are conducting trade using their own currencies rather than relying on the dollar as a “vehicle currency”. The logic for denominating in dollars virtually all contracts for oil and other commodities is waning.
即便是现在，以其他货币进行交易的成本下降以及人民币等新兴市场货币崛起，已经在削弱美元在跨境交易的计价和结算中的地位。中国和韩国正在用两国自己的货币进行贸易，而不是依靠美元作为“工具货币”。将美元作为石油和其他大宗商品几乎所有合约的计价货币，已经在丧失合理性。
Other forces are at work. Under Mr Trump, the US is increasingly seen as an unreliable partner in trade, military and other agreements. This has damaged its international credibility and also sown fear that Mr Trump could wield the dollar as a weapon of control over other countries. Consequently, China and Russia, among others, are setting up their own payment systems and channels that bypass the US.
其他因素正在起作用。在特朗普的领导下，美国日益被视为贸易、军事和其他协议中不可靠的合作伙伴。这损害了美国的国际信誉，也令人担心特朗普可能将美元作为控制其他国家的武器。因此，中国和俄罗斯等国正在建立绕开美国的自己的支付系统和渠道。
Perhaps, even if the dollar wanes as the dominant medium of exchange, it will remain unparalleled as a safe haven. Foreign investors, including central banks, have shown no signs of forsaking their dollar assets.
或许，即使美元作为主要交易媒介的角色减弱，它仍将是一个无可比拟的避险港。包括央行在内的外国投资者没有表现出放弃美元资产的迹象。
US institutions have indeed withstood the test of time, but taking them for granted could prove costly. When the American political system has come under severe stress in the past, a free press, backed by an independent judiciary, has functioned as a correcting mechanism. All of these institutions are under attack from Mr Trump, abetted by a Republican-dominated Congress.
美国的制度确实一直经受住了时间的考验，但将其视为理所当然可能会付出沉重代价。过去当美国政治体系承受巨大压力时，得到独立司法机构支撑的自由新闻媒体起到了纠正制度问题的作用。如今在共和党控制的国会的怂恿下，特朗普正在攻击所有这些机构。
The dollar’s supremacy depends not just on America’s economic or military strength, but also on the durability and strength of its institutions. It is precisely these that the Trump administration is eroding — something even his devoted base might one day come to rue.
美元霸权不仅依赖于美国的经济或军事实力，也依赖于其制度的持久性和强健度。这正是特朗普政府正在削弱的东西，甚至他的忠实拥趸总有一天也会为此懊悔。
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