Information  Cascade , I

Better and Better                                                                                                Day 5

      Today we are going to learn a theory about Herd Behavior -- Information Cascade. For example, we often encounter this situation in life. In a new intersection, all cars don’t know whether to turn left or right. At this time, the driver in the first car made a random decision, and he turned left. His behavior will have an impact on the driver in the second car. Originally in the second driver’s information set, turning left or right is an equal weight, but the first driver’s left turn conveys new information, the signal to the left gains an advantage. One by one, the signal to the left was very strong when the tenth car passing the intersection. Herd behavior is formed like this.

      今天我們來學一個關於羊群行為的理論---信息瀑布。比如在生活中我們經常遇到這樣的情形，在一個新的岔路口，所有車都不知道該左轉還是右轉。這時候，第一輪車的司機做了一個隨機的決策，他左轉了。他的這個舉動會對第二輛車的司機造成影響。本來在第二個司機的信息集里面，左轉和右轉是同等的權重，但第一個司機的左拐傳遞了新信息，向左的信息取得了優勢。一個一個地傳遞下去,到第十輛車的時候，向左的信號已經非常強。羊群行為就此形成。

                                                                                                        August 29th,2018                                                                                                                    Bazhou.