People tend to be more impressed by evidence that seems to confirm some relationship. Thus many are convinced their dreams are prophetic because a few have come true; they fail to notice the many that have not. Consider also the belief that “the phone always rings when I’m in the shower.” If it does ring while you are in the shower, the event will stand out and be remembered. If it doesn’t ring, that nonevent probably won’t even register.
人们往往会对似乎证实某种关系的证据印象更深刻。因此，许多人相信他们的梦想是种预言，因为有一些已经实现了；他们没有注意到那些没有实现的。还可以考虑这样一种信念，即“我洗澡时电话总是响。”如果你洗澡时电话确实响了，这件事就会格外突出，并让人们记住。如果它不响，那么这件事就可能不会留下印象。
People want to see order, pattern and meaning in the world. Consider, for example, the common belief that things like personal misfortunes, plane crashes, and deaths “happen in threes.” Such beliefs stem from the tendency of people to allow the third event to define the time period. If three plane crashes occur in a month, then the period of time that counts as their “happening together” is one month; if three crashes occur in a year, the period of time is stretched. Flexible end points reinforce such beliefs.
人们希望看到世界的秩序、模式和意义。例如，考虑一下人们普遍认为的个人不幸、飞机失事和死亡“三次发生”的观点。这种观点源于人们倾向于允许第三次事件来定义时间段。如果一个月内发生三起飞机坠毁事件，则被视为“一起发生”的时间段为一个月；如果一年内发生三起撞车事故，那么这段时间就很长了。灵活的终点强化了这种信念。
We also tend to believe what we want to believe. A majority of people think they are more intelligent, more fair-minded and more skilled behind the wheel of an automobile than the average person. Part of the reason we view ourselves so favorably is that we use criteria that work to our advantage. As economist Thomas Schelling explains, “Everybody ranks himself high in qualities he values: careful drivers give weight to care, skilled drivers give weight to skill, and those who are polite give weight to courtesy,” This way everyone ranks high on his own scale.
我们也倾向于相信我们想相信的东西。大多数人认为他们比普通人更聪明、更公正、驾驶汽车更熟练。我们之所以如此看好自己，部分原因是我们使用了对自己有利的标准。正如经济学家托马斯·谢林（Thomas Schelling）所解释的那样，“每个人都认为自己的素质很高：细心的司机重视细心，熟练的司机重视技巧，有礼貌的人重视礼貌”。这样，每个人按自己的标准排名都会很高。
Perhaps the most important mental habit we can learn is to be cautious in drawing conclusions. The “evidence” of everyday life is sometimes misleading.
也许我们能学会的最重要的心理习惯是谨慎地得出结论。日常生活的“证据”有时具有误导性。
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