Poor Charlie's Almanack（Talk 9 ）

阅读内容: 《穷查理宝典》 Poor Charlie's Almanack---Talk Nine

Academic Economics: Strengths and Faults after Considering Interdisciplinary Needs

Summary

This talk was made by Charles T. Munger at the Herb Kay Undergraduate Lecture University of California, Santa Barbara Economics Departrnent on October 3, 2003.

What Charlie laid forth on that occasion might be considered the Grand Unified Theory of the Munger approach. The talk incorporates the many ideas that Charlie discussed in his previous talks and presents them, checklist-style, as a coherent philosophy.

"If you would persuade, appeal to interest and not to reason."

芒格个人的有趣的教育经历：

1, my personal education history is interesting because its deficiencies and my peculiarities eventually created advantages. For some odd reason, I had an early and extreme multidisciplinary cast of mind.从小就有极强的跨学科的意识

2, I also was born with a huge craving for synthesis. And when it didn't come easily, which was often, I would rag the problem, and then when I failed, I would put it aside, and I'd come back to it and rag it again。

I have this tendency to want to rag the problems. 总喜欢琢磨一些问题

3, I absorbed what I call the fundamental full attribution ethos of hard science.吸收到自然科学的完整的基础的本质思想Under this ethos, you've got to know all the big ideas in all the disciplines more fundamental than your own.受这种思想的影响，从而领略到比你所学领域更重要的所有学科的宏观理念

the obvious strengths of academic economics学术经济学的明显优势：

1, The first obvious strength, and this is true of a lot of places that get repute, is that it was in the right place at the right time. 它的出现是适时适地的

2, Economics was always more multidisciplinary than the rest of soft science. It just reached out and grabbed things as it needed to.比其他社会科学横跨更多的学科

3, economics attracted the best brains in soft science.

economics early on attracted some of the best writers of language in the history of the Earth. So economics started with some very great men and great writers.经济学吸引了社会学科的杰出人才

a few things that are wrong with academic economics.学术经济学的错误之处：

1) Fatal Unconnectedness, Leading to Man-with-a-Hammer Syndrome, Often Causing Overweighing What Can Be Counted 致命的自闭

芒格的建议：

You don't have just a hammer. You've got all the tools. And you've got to have one more trick. You've got to use those tools checklist-style because you'll miss a lot if you just hope that the right tool is going ro pop up unaided whenever you need it. But if you've got a full list of tools and go through them in your mind, checklist-style, you will find a lot of answers rhat you won't find any other way.

2) Failure to Follow the Fundamental Full-Attribution Ethos of Hard Science 没有采用硬科学基本的“全归因”治学法

归因——回归学科的核心、基本因素。该法强调弄懂学科的核心基础知识并分门别类清楚，然后化繁为简的使用！

3) Physics Envy 物理学嫉妒

由于物理学理论能够精确的描述事物的运动变化，所以某些人试图让经济学理论也能达到同样的效果，结果导致经济学理论过分最求精确而不切实际。本质上是一种片面、主观对待问题的方式。查理认为经济学不可能很精确的原因是其涉及的系统太过复杂。

So, economics should emulate physics' basic ethos, but its search for precision in physics- like formulas is almost always wrong in economics.

4) Too Much Emphasis on Macroeconomics 太过强调宏观经济学

宏观经济学和微观经济学是类似于部分与整体的关系。由于部分是整体的前提，且宏观经济太过复杂，查理建议相对于宏观，应该更好的研究、掌握微观经济学。

芒格的建议：

Anyway, I recommend that sort of mental puzzle solving ro all of you, flipping one's thinking both backward and forward. And I recommend that academic economics get better at very small-scale microeconomics as demonstrated here.

5) Too Little Synthesis in Economics 经济学的综合太少

芒格批评经济学不但没有综合传统经济学之外的知识，也没有综合经济学内部的知识。甚至是其内部的知识也缺乏彼此综合。查理提醒：学科内部的知识更需要相互联系、综合。

6) Extreme and Counterproductive Psychological Ignorance 对心理学极度无知及其在经济学中造成负面影响

查理再次强调多学科知识的重要性，尤其是心理学对经济学的不可或缺。

you have got to keep grinding out of your system as much removable ignorance as you can remove.

7) Too Little Attention to Second- and Higher-Order Effects 对二级或更高级别的效应关注太少。

查理强调要分析结果的结果。尤其是制度的设计要防止人钻空子。

8) Not Enough Attention to the Concept of Febezzlement 对“捞灰金”的概念关注太少。（这点在Talk 7提到过）

查理芒格认为：经济学界对最简单、最基本的数学原理关注太少。

9) Not Enough Attention ro Virtue and Vice Effects 对美德效应和恶行效应不够重视----因为美德和恶行无法用大量的数据、图标来表示。

在经济生活中产生了巨大的美德效应的例子：复式簿记法和收款机。查理认为：economic systems work better when there's an extreme reliability ethos. 极端的诚信精神能让经济体系运转得更好。

许多恶行造成的负面效果：出现了许多虚假繁荣的景象和稀奇古怪的促销手段；欺诈与愚蠢造成的经济泡沫无所不在；和妒忌有关---特例，恶行的好效应——关于妒忌的“私人恶德即公共利益”——妒忌是最糟糕的行为，却又是促使经济增长的驱动力。

10) 对嵌入式庞氏骗局的效应不够重视。

查理芒格的建议

1, What I've urged is the use of a bigger multidisciplinary bag of tricks, mastered to fluency, to help economics and everything else.

2, And I also urged that people not be discouraged by irremovable complexity and paradox. It just adds more fun to the problems.

3, If you skillfully follow the multidisciplinary path, you will never wish to come back.