当犹豫不决时，趋势是你的朋友

Willy Woo先生，是一位我非常尊重的加密货币市场分析师，像现在声名大噪的NVT指数，是由Willy Woo最早在2017年提出的，用于探测比特币泡沫程度。Willy先生是也一位极赋内涵的人，从他的文章或讲话，你可以看到，他的思维很有深度。本方是将先生的原文《On peak indecisiveness》转载了过来，并加入了中译文，一起看看吧...

On peak indecisiveness - 在犹豫不决时

Willy Woo | 03 Mar 2019 | https://woobull.com/on-peak-indecisiveness/

Summing Bitfinex's margin BTCUSD long and short positioning charts gives us an indication of speculator decisiveness. You can pull this chart up on TradingView with "BTCUSDLONGS+BTCUSDSHORTS". To be clear this is a view into speculator margin trade activity, in essence the volume they are borrowing from funders in order to position themselves for a short term leveraged trade (think of this as selling or buying more than you can normally afford via the use of lending).

将Bitfinex的BTCUSD多头和空头保证金加总，可以得到此图表，以便让我们看到市场上投机者所面临的方面决断。您可以使用“BTCUSDLONGS + BTCUSDSHORTS”在TradingView上提取此图表。需要明确的是，这是对投机者保证金交易活动的一种看法，实质上是他们从资助者那里借入的资金，以便为短期杠杆交易做好准备（将其视为卖出或买入超过您通常使用的通常交易量）贷款）。

Zones of minimal Long + Short positioning have historically coincided with bearish price action during bear markets (the opposite is true for bull markets).

历史上最少的和多头与空头区域在历史上与熊市期间的看跌价格行为相吻合（牛市相反）。

When undecided, "the trend is your friend" prevails.

当犹豫不决时，“趋势是你的朋友”占上风。

Trend reversal  趋势逆转

Interestingly in the Jan 2018 BTCUSD double top, peak indecisiveness did a phase shift. We went from "more bullish price action", to "more bearish price action"... an early warning that the trend had reversed and that the start of the bear market had begun.

有趣的是，在2018年1月的BTCUSD双顶，峰值优柔寡断做了一个相移。我们从“更多看涨的价格行动”转向“更加看跌的价格行动”......这种趋势已经逆转的早期预警以及熊市的开始已经开始。