英汉对照：特朗普搅乱中东局势
On its face, the US embassy opening in Jerusalem looked like a calculated provocation. Donald Trump sent his closest family — his daughter, Ivanka Trump, and son-in-law, Jared Kushner — to the ceremony. They made no mention of the Palestinians protesting against the 70th anniversary of losing their homeland.
表面上，位于耶路撒冷的美国大使馆开馆看起来像一次蓄意挑衅。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)派出最亲密的家人——女儿伊万卡•特朗普(Ivanka Trump)和女婿贾里德•库什纳(Jared Kushner)参加了开馆仪式。他们并未提及抗议失去家园70周年的巴勒斯坦人。
On the same day, the Israeli army killed dozens of the protesters and wounded thousands. Meanwhile, Mike Pence, the US vice-president, likened Mr Trump to the biblical King David — the one who defeated a mighty foe against impossible odds. All in all, it was an egregious day’s work.
同一天，以军打死了数十名抗议者，打伤数千人。与此同时，美国副总统迈克•彭斯(Mike Pence)将特朗普比作《圣经》中在几无可能的情况下击败强敌的大卫王(King David)。总而言之，这一天简直糟糕透了。
Yet this Trumpian special was born of negligence rather than design. Had Mr Trump wished to inflame Arabist sentiment, he could not have done it better. That would have been a more reassuring explanation. In practice, alienating Palestinians was collateral damage. Mr Trump could not resist the adulation — down to the outsized typeface of his name on the embassy plaque — around the event. Such is Mr Trump’s love of branding that he is prepared to be reckless with his own agenda.
然而，这种特朗普式的特殊事件并非出自设计，而是源于粗心大意。如果特朗普真想煽动阿拉伯人的情绪，没人能比他做得更好。这应该是一种更令人安慰的解释。实际上，疏远巴勒斯坦人是附带伤害。特朗普无法抵御他超大字体的名字出现在大使馆牌匾上这种奉承。这就是特朗普对品牌化的热爱，以至于他准备鲁莽地推进自己的议程。
High on that list is his yet to be published plan for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine problem. Mr Trump believes he can succeed in the Middle East where his predecessors have failed. Much the same spirit animates his upcoming summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Yet the Jerusalem move directly undercuts his hopes of brokering a solution. By taking the Holy City’s final status off the table, Mr Trump has all but guaranteed the Palestinians will not come to the table. He is also making life tougher for his Arab friends.
排在这份议程清单靠前位置的还有他尚未公布的巴以问题两国解决方案。特朗普相信，他可以在前任们失败的中东地区取得成功。对于他即将与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)举行的峰会，他也是同样的心态。然而，他在耶路撒冷的举动直接削弱了他斡旋出一个解决方案的希望。通过把圣城的最终地位问题拿下谈判桌，特朗普几乎保证了巴勒斯坦人不会来到谈判桌前。他还让自己的阿拉伯盟友处境更加艰难。
Arab leaders have been inching closer to acknowledging Israel’s right to exist. Last month Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, told The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg that he accepted the right to a Jewish nation state in at least part of their ancestral homeland. Coming from the custodian of Mecca, this was a radical opening. The crown prince also told a Jewish gathering in New York that the Palestinian question did not feature in the top 100 issues for ordinary Saudis, according to people who attended. That was then. After Monday’s Jerusalem ceremony, the Palestinian question is surely back in their top 10. Such is the strength of Arab feeling that American embassies in the Middle East had to be reinforced with US marines.
阿拉伯各国领导人正在逐步接近承认以色列的生存权。上月，沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)对《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)的杰弗里•戈德堡(Jeffrey Goldberg)表示，他承认犹太人民有权在至少部分祖先故土上建立一个民族国家。来自麦加守护者的这一言论是一个重大开端。王储据称还在纽约一场犹太人集会上表示，对普通沙特民众而言，巴勒斯坦问题并不属于他们最关心的前100个问题。但那是当时的情况。周一的耶路撒冷美国大使馆开馆后，巴勒斯坦问题无疑又回到了他们最关心的十大问题之列。阿拉伯人民的情绪如此强烈，以至于美国海军陆战队不得不加强对美国驻中东各国大使馆的保护。
If this is how Mr Trump conducts diplomacy, what need is there for war? Alas, prospects for a real war are growing rapidly. Mr Trump is stoking them with his actions. In this respect, he differs from prior US presidents. Even George W Bush, who unleashed America’s “war of choice” on Iraq, conveyed some sensitivity for the Arab street. Mr Trump cares about the Arab penthouse — particularly those in the Gulf. They are happy to have Mr Trump on their side in the larger Sunni-Shia stand-off. It is one thing for a US president to try to solve a regional sectarian conflict. It is another for him to take sides in one.
如果这就是特朗普的外交策略，那还需要再去发动战争吗？可惜，爆发一场真正战争的可能性正在迅速增大。特朗普正在用行动煽动战争。在这方面，他与前几任美国总统都不一样。就连对伊拉克奉行“首选战争”策略的小布什(George W Bush)也对阿拉伯社会的公共舆论表现出一定程度的敏感。特朗普关心的是阿拉伯顶层人士——尤其是海湾地区的顶层人士。他们乐于看到特朗普在更大范围的逊尼派与什叶派对峙中站在自己这边。美国总统设法解决地区宗派冲突是一回事，而选择站队是另一回事。
Students of history should consult Europe’s 30 years’ war between Catholics and Protestants. The Middle East faces a comparable spectre today. America has lost the will to direct events in the region. National interest dictates it should therefore prevent another power from doing so.
学历史的学生应查阅一下欧洲天主教徒与新教徒之间爆发的“三十年战争”。如今，中东面临类似的幽灵。美国已经失去管理中东事务的意愿。而国家利益决定了它应该阻止其他大国这样做。
A different US president would pursue what some call “offshore balancing”. That would mean backing the minority power — in this case, Iran — in the interests of regional balance. Mr Trump is doing the opposite. By pulling out from the Iran nuclear deal, he is egging on the team in the Sunni shirts. He is leaving the role of referee to Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
换一位美国总统可能会奉行一些人所称的“离岸制衡”。这将意味着支持少数派权力（在中东指伊朗）以实现地区权力平衡。特朗普的做法恰恰相反。通过退出伊朗核协议，他正在怂恿逊尼派。他将把仲裁者角色留给俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)。
Third-party diplomacy is always tough. In the Middle East it requires the patience of Job. The starting point is to grasp that Israelis and Palestinians each have a deeply rooted standpoint. History has burdened Jews with a unique, existential fear for their own survival. Nobody should second guess that. The Palestinians have been driven from their homeland. Their claim cannot be auctioned off. An honest broker would start by acknowledging these mutually exclusive positions.
第三方外交总是很艰难。在中东，这需要极度耐心。首先要明白的是，以色列人和巴勒斯坦人各自持有根深蒂固的立场。历史遭遇让犹太人对自身生存负有独特的、生死存亡的恐惧。这毋庸置疑。巴勒斯坦人已经被赶出自己的家园。他们的主张不能拿来拍卖。一个真诚的调停者首先会承认这些相互排斥的立场。
The world awaits Mr Trump’s two-state plan with unbated breath. It is being drawn up by Mr Kushner. You could not make it up.
全世界正在焦急等待特朗普的两国方案。该方案正在由库什纳起草。你无法拼凑出一个这样的方案。
Observers of Mr Trump keep checklists of his campaign promises. One such vow was to move the US embassy to Jerusalem. Another was to abandon the Iran nuclear deal. On both he has been true to his word. But the assurance he truly believed is the one he cannot keep. “I alone can fix it,” Mr Trump said. That is turning into one of the most expensive promises ever made.
观察人士保留着特朗普竞选承诺的清单。其中之一就是将美国驻以色列大使馆迁至耶路撒冷。另一项是抛弃伊核协议。特朗普在这两方面都信守了承诺。但他真正相信的保证是他无法实现的。特朗普曾表示：“我一个人就能搞定。”这将成为有史以来代价最高昂的承诺之一。
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