第一节,金鹅估值法原理
1,一家好公司现在的合理价格,是N年后公司的净资产价值。
2,合理市值 = 净资产*(1+ROE)^N
3,N=7+护城河([-1,0,1,2])+成长性([-1,1,2])
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/74d3de840f25b283.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/675e2be66b147ba5.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/4ee4b3cce175ff69.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/a5b044c7c5cba87b.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/e12864e5f59cc10c.jpg)
第二节,金鹅估值法公司解析1
1,金鹅估值法的本质是
相当于以N年后PB等于1的价格买入
2,N的取值基数为什么是7
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/24c49d6b3ff3d264.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/4598f1e8f941878c.jpg)
第三节,金鹅估值法公式解析2
1,护城河与成长性对N取值的影响
2,ROE的取值
(1),ROE采用的事滚动ROE
(2),N的取值基数是7
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/2a236e3aff110f65.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/8a2228a6c63f5739.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/ce9f579ea4f0b491.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/227df43e9dfa6c82.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/14fc913d712e57e1.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/79f6f52713678599.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/d0e4080d6cdf41d7.jpg)
第四节,金鹅估值法案例演示
1,金鹅估值法中N的取值对估值影响较大
2,金鹅估值法中ROE的取值和判断也对估值影响较大
3,估值不仅决定何时买入,还决定何时卖出。
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/d6cb80906db4c723.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/7f7802759b1aacd6.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/d9066022135e5fca.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/5baf1f71b3376595.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/789daa9fcd48abe3.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/58f6673fd846d5b2.jpg)
第五节,估值调整
1,根据滚动ROE调整估值
2,金鹅估值法小总结
3,如果判断ROE的提高或者下降是长期持续的,公司的盈利能力确实提高或者下降了,则要根据最新的ROE调整估值水平。
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/8d0548ac9005d742.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/787e2a88b3d0d8e1.jpg)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i15571320/705e4fa181cab43b.jpg)
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