Time: October 7, 2018
@ The Allis (119 Green Street, Chicago, IL)
Attendees: Jen Bao, Steve Li, Ethan Xin, Janathan Zhou, Janus Yuan
The Seventh meeting of the Afternoon tea Book Club collided with Chicago Marathon. The original decided meeting site, Sawada Coffee, was full of people from all over the country or even the world. We had to relocate to across the street, the Allis, the same event site for the third book club meeting.
https://tinyurl.com/ybrs9952
Jonathan shared The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century
Goodreads:
At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the hypothesis. There is no better person to conduct such an experiment, for Fisher is a pioneer in the field of statistics.
The Lady Tasting Tea spotlights not only Fisher's theories but also the revolutionary ideas of dozens of men and women which affect our modern everyday lives. Writing with verve and wit, David Salsburg traces breakthroughs ranging from the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories to the methods of quality control that rebuilt postwar Japan's economy, including a pivotal early study on the capacity of a small beer cask at the Guinness brewing factory. Brimming with intriguing tidbits and colorful characters, The Lady Tasting Tea salutes the spirit of those who dared to look at the world in a new way.
https://tinyurl.com/ya8ryfq4
Discussion: We ordered two pots of teas Wild Thai Chocolate Bananas and Mallorca Mellon. When Janus poured milk into the tea cup, Jonathan shared this book about the first methodical way to prove statistical correctness. It was fascinating that the subject of the first experiment in human history was coincidentally related to a tradition that our book club has been doing since the very start - if you are in Chicago and is a book worm, come and join us for afternoon teas.打个广告 ：）
Jonathan also shared The Color of Law: A Forgotten History of How Our Government Segregated America
Goodreads:
In this groundbreaking history of the modern American metropolis, Richard Rothstein, a leading authority on housing policy, explodes the myth that America’s cities came to be racially divided through de facto segregation—that is, through individual prejudices, income differences, or the actions of private institutions like banks and real estate agencies. Rather, The Color of Law incontrovertibly makes clear that it was de juresegregation—the laws and policy decisions passed by local, state, and federal governments—that actually promoted the discriminatory patterns that continue to this day.
https://tinyurl.com/ydb38w2m
Summary of the laws:
* Public housing - either white or black had to stay in the housing for 20 to 30 years
*Zoning - votes were cast by the government so bad public facilities are built in black neighborhood.
*Mortgage - some banks offered no mortgages to some neighborhood
*Neighborhood rules - some neighborhoods had rules for the residences e.g. If a black customer obtained a mortgage inside the neighborhood's bank, the bank would not be able to lend to the neighborhood residences again.
*Harassment - if a zone of one race had an opposite race moved in, there would be endless harassment and the government would not do anything to stop.
*Job market - black people don't really have choices for good jobs.
*Public transportation - normally seen as convenience to residences but rich people opposed to public transportation because they had their own automobiles and preferred to not let people who cannot afford cars to be inside the area.
Discussion: Jonathan said there were a lot of real applications how government's behaviors influences the neighborhoods in Chicago.
Division and Halsted is known as a problematic area due to poverty and currently it's still a vacant parcel of land at the moment waiting to be developed.
There is a police station strategically positioned at 31st street and Halsted to stabilize the area from raised criminal activities.
Steve introduced Bridgewater's owner, Ray Dalio's latest book, Big Debt Crisis.
Goodreads:
For the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world’s most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.
https://tinyurl.com/ydyrban6
The financial cycle diagram from Big Debt Crisis by Ray Dalio
Discussion: Steve explained that all financial crisis is not due to falling stock prices but rather due to external debt. Turkey's currency was weakened because its close relationship with USD. When USD fell, it triggered the financial crisis. China would not have this problem. We lack large external debt and hold abundant foreign reserves.
Relationships between two countries, Established vs emerging powerful country e.g. US vs China. There could be potentially two relationships:
1. Cooperative competitive, a win-win situation where both countries would compete and cooperate to improve economies together.
2. Strategy and threaten - This can start from financial conflict and exacerbate to political conflict and then eventually to war. The winner would be the leader to redefine world power.
Above is the summary of the first 30 pages of the book. The last 300 pages are case studies including 1920's German hyper-inflation, Qing Dynasty's trade...
Ethan brought up a political review piece - Triple-Axis: China, Russia, Iran and Power Politics
*The book is said to be released on 10/30/2018 but it's originally released in January of this year. No descriptions on Goodreads are found as of today.
Amazon:
The most significant challenge to the post-Cold War international order is the growing power of ambitious states opposed to the West. Iran, Russia, and China each view the global structure through the prism of historical experience. Rejecting the universality of Western liberal values, these states and their governments each consider the relative decline of Western economic hegemony as an opportunity. Yet cooperation between them remains fragmentary. The end of Western sanctions and the Iranian nuclear deal; the Syrian conflict; new institutions in Central and East Asia: in all these areas and beyond, the potential for unity or divergence is striking.
In this comprehensive study, Ariane Tabatabai and Dina Esfandiary address the substance of this "triple axis" in the realms of energy, trade, and military security. In particular, they scrutinize Iran-Russia and the often overlooked field of Iran-China relations. Their argument―that interactions between the three will shape the world stage for decades to come―will interest to anyone looking to understand the contemporary international security puzzle.
https://tinyurl.com/y7nclqao
https://tinyurl.com/yd78h7pe
Discussion: The book covers the past 20 years from Iran's perspective to view the other two countries', US and Europe's financials. Since the US backed out of Iran's nuclear deal alone, it had a tremendous impact on some small American entities with no relationship to work with Iran. It also influenced the EU. EU really needs a separate payment system because its member countries have very different financial situations. Some bear a lot of debts e.g. Italy and may not be able to pay back. Just like Greek's bailout, once the chain reaction of financial breakdowns takes place, EU's decision would be too late to stop. China also needs an independent payment system rather than relying on USD.
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