What a convenient thing a tame parliament is. On March 10th, acting on a proposal from the first woman in space (now a celebrity mp), the Russian Duma approved an amendment to the country’s constitution that would reset the clock barring anyone from serving more than two consecutive terms as president.
温和的议会是多么舒服的一件事！在3月10日，俄罗斯杜马通过了第一女士（现在成为一名著名议员）提出的一个宪法修正案，禁止任何人能总统仅能连任两届以上。
As it happens, that would allow Vladimir Putin, at present ineligible to run for another term when his current one expires in 2024, to stay on for two more six-year terms after that date, assuming he can win two more elections on top of the four he has won already.
正如现在所发生的，这将导致现任的俄罗斯总统普京在2024年结束他当前的任期后没有资格竞选下一任总统，从而继续赢得两届总统任期共12年，假如他能够在已经赢得两次总统任期后再赢得两届。
By then, in 2036, he would be 83, and would have ruled Russia for 36 years, as long as Ivan the Terrible. Two of the world’s biggest military powers, China and Russia, now have what look like presidents-for-life. Such leaders seldom improve with age.
到那时们也就是2036年，他是83岁，统治俄罗斯36年，就像伊万雷帝一样。世界上最大的两个军事政权是俄罗斯和中国，现在他们都有终身统治的迹象。这样的领导人很少能随着年龄进增长。
A few technicalities remain (see Europe section). Russia’s Constitutional Court still has to rule on whether Mr Putin’s changes are indeed constitutional.
一系列技术设施仍然参与。俄罗斯议会仍然需要判定普京的改变是否符合宪法。
It is a sign of how completely Mr Putin has packed and bent Russian institutions to his will that no one imagines that he will fail to get his way, just as no one imagines that Valentina Tereshkova, who took her giant leap for womankind back on June 16th, 1963, was acting off her own bat.
这表明普京为了目的向俄罗斯议会屈服和屈服程度以至于没有人想象他可能会失败，正如没有人想象瓦伦蒂娜在1963年6月16号女权争取了巨大的飞跃，。
The third hurdle is an “all-people vote” of doubtful legality on the newly adjusted constitution, which Mr Putin has scheduled for April 22nd. That, perhaps, is a little less in the bag, but the Kremlin’s operatives are dab hands at suppressing protests and neutering the press.
第三个障碍是一个被有合法性疑问的基于新调整过的宪法的”全民公投“，被普京定于4月22号。这可能相对较少，但是克林姆林宫的特工镇压反抗者和媒体。
And the rest of the changes to the constitution are designed to enhance its popularity with tradition-minded Russians, for instance by stressing that Russian law must have primacy over international law, that state pensions must be inflation-proof and that gay marriage will never be permitted.
剩余的关于宪法的改变被设计用来增加传统思想的俄罗斯人的知名度，比如说强调俄罗斯法律应该优先于国际法、地区养老金需要能抵制通货膨胀，以及同性婚姻被永久抵制。
None of this ought to come as a surprise. Mr Putin and his circle have made too many enemies and too much money for him to risk giving up power voluntarily. The real question has been how he would dress up his intention to rule indefinitely.
这些都不应该变成惊喜。普京和他的幕僚树立了太多的敌人、花费了太多的金钱来冒险自愿放弃权力。真正的问题是他如何包装才能自己的永久统治企图。
Once before he got around the two-term rule, by taking the supposedly less powerful post of prime minister, swapping jobs with the pliable Dmitri Medvedev who served as president between 2008 and 2012. Mr Medvedev then dutifully swapped back again, allowing Mr Putin to resume being president with his clock reset and the term extended from four years to six.
他已经获得了两任任期，通过就任据说权力相对较少的总理一职，与在2008-2012年就任总统的梅德韦杰夫互换职位。任期结束后梅德韦杰夫与普京把职位换了回来，使普京重新当选总统并将任期修改至6年一届。
Mr Medvedev was dumped as prime minister earlier this year, and the Kremlin seems to have opted for an even simpler run around the rules.
梅德韦杰夫在今年早期卸任总理，克里姆林宫似乎选择了更简单的绕过规则的操作。
The trick assumes that Mr Putin will be as weakly opposed in 2024 and 2030 as he was in 2000, 2004, 2012 and 2018. Is that plausible? The timing of the changes is ominous for him. This week’s collapse in the oil price will hurt the economy.
似乎普京在2024、2030年将会与他在2000-2018年一样受到微弱的反对，这是否合理？时间的变化对他来说是不利的，这周油价的崩塌将会重创经济。
Despite 20 years in charge and a clear global trend to find substitutes for fossil fuels, he has failed to do nearly enough to diversify Russia away from oil and gas. His government has built up enough financial reserves to last for years, but not for ever.
尽管20年的统治和全球寻找化石燃料替代品的趋势，他没能使俄罗斯从石油和天然气依赖性经济变得多元化。尽管他的政府建立了持续数年的足够的金融储备，但并不是永远够用。
Meanwhile, deep-rooted corruption and a lack of competition have hobbled the prospects for growth. Mr Putin’s political actions—annexing Crimea, invading eastern Ukraine, meddling in other countries’ elections and presiding over the murder of opponents on foreign soil—have made his country a pariah, subject to sanctions that show no sign of being relaxed. Import substitution since 2014 has bought him breathing space, but for ordinary Russians life is likely to get harder.
同时，根深蒂固的腐败和竞争的缺乏使得成长的前景变得渺茫。普京的政治操作诸如使克里米亚陷入困境、入侵乌克兰、干扰他国竞选、在外国国土上实施反对方领导人的谋杀，使他的国家人民变成了贱民，受到制裁没有松懈的迹象。从2014年开始的进口替代品给了他喘息之机，但实际对于普通俄罗斯人的生活容易变得更加艰难。
In the hot seat until he grows cold Mr Putin’s popularity has faltered since the election in 2018, partly because of a weak economy, but also because he tried to raise the age at which Russians receive state pensions.
对于热板凳直到冷却，他的支持从2018年选举开始就减少，部分因为疲软的经济，另一方面是他试图增加俄罗斯接受养老金的年龄。
This was necessary but unpopular, and he watered his plans down. At municipal elections last year his United Russia party suffered heavy losses, especially in Moscow, despite efforts to keep strong opponents off the ballot.
这有必要但是并不受欢迎，他浇灭了他的幻想。在去年的市政选举中，他的统一俄罗斯党遭受重创，特别是在莫斯科，不计一切使强壮的对手放弃投票。
Still, by manipulating the media and electoral law, he has so far prevented any single challenger from securing broad support. Mr Putin won re-election as president in 2018 with a thumping 77% of the vote, his best result ever, helped by the fact that his most popular opponent, Alexei Navalny, was barred from the contest on trumped-up charges of fraud. No despot is immortal. But Russians have good cause to worry that their modern-day tsar has a long future on the throne.
通过操作媒体和选举法，他阻止了任何一个挑战者赢得广泛的支持。普京在2018年的重新总统选举中以77%的支持率获得连任，这是他最高的投票率。他的最受欢迎的对手Alexei Navalny因为被指控欺诈禁止参加选举。没有暴君是不朽的。但是俄罗斯人应当担心他们的现代沙皇在王位上有很长的历史。
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