part 1 线上/线下竞争
Why Offline is Still Important
Even though the Internet “liberates” consumers there are still some “disutility costs” associated with buying online as more than 90% of what is sold to consumers is still sold offline
This is because there are still frictions:
Delivery times
Uncertainty about about “fit and feel” of certain products
Cost of returns (time and money)
Online / Offline Competition
Competition is intense for popular products, but almost non-existent for niche products
For example, when an offline bookstore opens in a neighborhood, Amazon.com sales in that neighborhood decline; but only for popular books like Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone and not for niche books like 101 Years of All Black Trivia
与虚拟世界相比，现实世界所存在两方面的问题，一，搜索摩擦，难于找到合适商品。二，地域摩擦，物理距离过远。
part 2 长尾 long tail
graphic
background
Historically, we lived in a world of “hits” (and not just for content), but now live in a world of infinite slots（原来的世界是热销的世界，人们热衷于畅销物品）
The economics of distribution have been radically altered for content, and for product as well（如今的商品种类更多更繁杂）
hypothesis
The Long Tail exists because the economics of storage and distribution have changed; this is the supply side and could be thought out of exogenous（卖家提供更多的产品）
The Long Tail is itself endogenous (demand side) as there are more ways for us to discover variety; think of Chris Anderson’s example of Touching the Void (1988) versus Into Thin Air(1998)（互联网使得顾客喜好多样能满足）
Old-New Economics
1897 Vilfredo Pareto found __% of population owned __% of the wealth (in the UK) giving rise to the Law of the Vital Few（20/80原则，已被长尾理论打破）
1949 George Zipf found that second most common word used 1/2 as much as the first; third 1/3 as much, etc.（齐普夫定律，手中的书里常用单词如上递减）
Power laws … occur with (1) variety, (2) inequality (some things have more of a quality than others), and (3) amplifies or network effects
Key Principles
The tyranny of locality (relate this idea to the concept of preference minorities)
（区域限制，你在本地能买到的商品取决于当地卖家向你提供的商品）
An audience that is spread too thin geographically used to not get served, e.g.,Lagaan: Once Upon a Time in India opened on only two screens（印度电影在美国播放，也只会在印度人群密集的大城市才有可能）
Main Characteristics
The ratio of niche products to “hits” is changing（小众商品和抢手热销商品比率在变）
Distribution efficiency is amplifying (digital,search, etc.)（分销效率在提高，数字作品可以在平板电脑、手机上购买）
Recommendations and reviews drive search so that consumers get into the tail（顾客的评价）
Collective value of niches > hits
“A Long Tail is just culture filtered unfiltered by scarcity（从人文角度，长尾没有因稀少的需求过滤）
Research Findings
Disentangling the supply side (larger product availability) from the demand side (easier for consumers to find and sample new products) 供给方对长尾理论所产生的影响
MIT study obtained data from a retailer offering identical product selection and prices through two different channels: Internet and catalog 进行研究通过目录销售和互联网销售，比对结果，看是否有相同的销售组合，（产品价格都相同的前提下）这些渠道在客户群和供货上有什么不同
Descriptive evidence is that Internet sales are significantly less concentrated (even after controlling for differences in customers and supply side factors such as taxes and shipping) 相较于目录销售，网络销售的基尼系数没有那么集中，更平等更均衡，更像是长尾销售，目录销售更像是遵循20/80准则
The results hold up when differences in the customer groups are controlled for too (Internet customers are younger, have more income)
The Internet channel has more evenly distributed sales and the difference cannot be
attributed to differences in price or availability（互联网销售的种类更多样，销售更加分散，销售出更多的小众产品）
Unit sales of “niche” products: 14.8% v 12.7%；$ sales of “niche” products: 15.0% v 12.7%； (Differences are statistically significant)
The question is now whether there is a demand side explanation, e.g., customer use of search tools on the Internet
- Key variables to explain sales of niche products: Directed search； Non-directed search； Recommendation system（网络购物可以更容易找到小众商品，评论评价等易于看到）
All computed as percentages in terms of page views e.g., Directed Search Views / Total Views（能找到安全符合自身品位的商品，与需求方有关）地理方面也有长尾理论
chart（基尼系数）
G = A / (A + B) [.49 v .53]（a的面积与ab之和面积的商）
0-100%选择c，如50，则代表低收入的人群50%的人所占收入总额占人群总收入的多少。（y轴显示的数字）
Critiques and Summary
Law of natural monopoly (hits get disproportionate share of light users)（自然垄断规则观点反对长尾理论，轻度用户会成为长尾头部用户，所以仍然需要长尾头部商品，这些会成为流行文化现象）
Law of double jeopardy (unfamiliar things are less well liked)（双重风险，人们对不喜欢的东西满意度也偏低）
But the Long Tail is still a very powerful concept!
Million Short http://tcrn.ch/SPIJ9B
More Anderson
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html
part 3 偏好分离
Principle
“Isolated” Prospects are Worth Pursuing
Preference Isolation brings shoppers online and explains geographic breakdown of online brand demand
J. Choi and D. Bell (2011) “Preference Minorities and
the Internet,” Journal of Marketing Research.
Research Findings
Unit volumes of different brands in zip code z in MSA m is an integer count, regressed on demographics and Preference Minority Index
b value significant and > 0 for Preference Minority Index for all brands but largest effect is for niche brands
Compare 90th percentile vs. 10th percentile PMI
- Category sales 50% higher
- Niche brand sales 125% higher
part 4 互联网销售创业公司的成长
Participating Firms
www.netgrocer.com 早期就开始的销售非易腐蚀品，1997,5
www.diapers.com 2005年，销售运输尿片等物品
www.warbyparker.com 2010.2 四个诺顿商学院学生创办，销售通常在线下销售的物品，且拥有自己的实体店
www.bonobos.com 2007年斯坦福大学商学院两名学生所创办，卖给男士的时尚单品
www.citruslane.com 关于礼物的网站，加利福尼亚的公司
Data Required
Work with Participating Internet Retailers
-Gather sales information from inception（得到这些企业的销售数据）
Typical Data（由政府提供的美国不同地区的不同人群种类的数据）
-Customer ID, Date, Transaction Value, Zip Code
-Geo-demographic “real world” data
Research Question（去分析物理环境的特点如何影响虚拟世界公司的销售）
-Why do some locations have more customers than other locations do?
What Matters Most in Internet Retailing
principle 1
Customer Acceptance of Online Retail Depends on Offline Shopping Costs
当一个在线业务开业，它会改变特定地点购物者的成本效益，改变离线与在线的相对成本效益
Internet retailers can alter the cost-benefit trade-off shoppers by making things “closer” and more accessible,perhaps even at better prices.
principle 2
Sales Evolution is Structured and Predictable
（电子商务公司销售增长的方式是很有条理且可以预见的）
Social Contagion from communication and observation affects online demand evolution
The Space-Time Sales Pattern（1个月到40个月的图示，有邮编的地方变得发散式密集）
When a zip code is shaded that means that there was at least one customer in that zip code by the time indicated at the top of the slide
What Causes This?
- Customers could be talking to each other
- Customers could be observing each other
principle 3
Migrating from “Good” to “Great” Requires Expansion to Niche Locations
（无论距离多远的两个相似的城市，其品位相似，也在相似时间开始网上购物，物理距离和社会距离的不同考量）
Spatial Structure follows a pattern of proximity and similarity (spatial “Long Tail”)
http://www.findyourdoppelganger.com/
There are two ways to think about distance:Geographic distance；Social, or demographic distance (people live far apart from each other still might be similar in other ways)
Two important patterns …
-Gin the beginning, sales start out in larger cities and spread by proximity from person to person
-Later on, sales pick up in smaller areas that are qute far apart, but that contain “similar” kinds of people
Long Tail Over Locations
Example: Sales Within Pennsylvania (from best locations to “long tail” locations)长尾理论的x轴由之前所讲的商品变成了地点，但是基本原理不变。
part 5 客户和数字营销
Goals and Tactics
Customer goals: Attract, engage, retain subject to（吸引招徕留住合适的客户）:
1. Never pay more to acquire than you will recoup, i.e., CLV > AC（为了获得一个客户，你的付出绝不多于预期收益）
2. CLV needs to incorporate “RLV”（客户终身价值需要终身推荐价值）
Key tactic: Encourage customers to refer and acquire other customers (www.Diapers.com) 8%的用户会成为推荐者，而一个推荐者会招徕4个新用户，互联网会很极端，前100个客户会带来约15000个客户，所以要鼓励老客户带来其他的客户
Digital Considerations
[Attractive target customer]招徕合适的目标客户
-Monologue to conversation 你与客户间的互动由单方变成了一种交流
-Amplification through virtual and real world synergy 可以把现实生活中的活动放大，投放到虚拟世界里
-“Long tail” leverage 我们要了解长尾杠杆这个观点的可能性，有些人的价值是非常高的
[Selection and Treatment] 选择效应和处理效应，对现有客户能转介新客户，二者都是非常重要的。
做转介的人有针对性的去挑选很适合该产品或服务的人，即选择效应。
如果一个顾客是被推荐来的，那么他再次推荐的几率为15%-18%（比之前的8%提高了很多）
市场营销人员执行的三项财产：品牌，客户，营销费用
Food For Thought
Try to identify a daily “status-quo” experience that is broken 去思考生活中不怎么好的现象，并去思考如何解决这些现状
Go to the website www.warbyparker.com and think about how this brand executes authenticity,transparency, and “humanization” to its various stakeholders 介绍了个网站，去思索品牌必须是透明的，真实的，人性化的，看网站哪些要素涉及了这三点
part 6 影响力和信息传播方式
Elements of Networks
“Pathways through which information, advice,resources, and support flow between people”（Aral 2012) 得与外界有联系，必须有人，或者是扩展为一个社区
Networks can be physical or virtual 网络可以是实体的或是虚拟的
Networks usually exhibit homophily, either in characteristics of participants, or in preferences 网络通常表现出一种同质性的性质，物以类聚
网络可以变得非常简单，你需要节点（node，人）、联系 Connections (between people)、信息共享ability to share information and resources、Constraints (geography, socioeconomics)
entering a network
Participation in a network is a choice (often governed by some form of homophily)
We also decide how many people we want to connect to and how central we want to be
When our relationships are transitive (our friends know each other) then we are deeply embedded
六度理论，周围人从事一项事情带给自己的压力（仰望天空），但联系不代表影响力，影响力不会超过三度
pricing puzzles 定价难题
Inputs to the Pricing Decision
–The floor and ceiling bound the Economic Value to the Customer (EVC) metric
–Note, however, that the 5Cs affect the final location of the actual pricebetween the floor and ceiling
Getting Deeper into Customer Factors
–Price sensitivity: Drivers and measurement 客户的价格敏感性
–Psychological factors
消费动机，2000个公司里得到能使价格变高的各种因素，研究发现，如果能达到1%提价后，利润就能提高11%
oTrader Joe’s 销售大量自有产品的公司，饺子定价无从比较，就把有从比较的水定价低一些
–Why does Trader Joe’s sell nationally-branded water, e.g., Poland Spring, at very low prices?
oCatalog Company 49似乎比44划算
–Why are more shoes sold at $49 than at $44?
oWalmart 因为常常以9/5为最低单位销售的物品，你看到一些其他数字，会觉得性价比很高
–Why does Walmartsell Tide detergent for $4.73?
价格不仅仅代表你必须支付的数字，还代表着其他信号。
Four Inputs to Pricing
1，底价；2，顾客愿意支付的上限；3，竞争，能使上限下降；4，价格与边际成本之间的差价，给代理商、经销商的差价，让他们愿意去销售经营
5Cs and Pricing：
Customers (most important, discussed last)；
oPrice Sensitivity 客户对价格的敏感度
–What drives it?
–How can we measure it?
oPsychological Issues 心理因素
–Odd numbered endings (e.g., $3.99, $1,995, etc.) 价格尾数
–Mental Accounting 脑海认定的价格
–Prospect Theory, including reference effects, loss aversion, and diminishing sensitivity 预期理论
–Endowment Effect 禀赋效应
Company；
o Financial Considerations 财务考虑
–Target margin orinternal rate of return (IRR)
o Consistency in the Product Line 一致性
–Price of new Toyota Camry is influenced not only by prices of Honda Accord or Ford Taurus, but also by the prices of Toyota Corolla and Toyota Avalon
o Consistency in Image现有形象
–It’s difficult for Neiman Marcus to cut prices in response to price competition
Competitors；
oCompetitor Aggressiveness 设定价格时，你的对手会有什么反应，他们是否咄咄逼人
–The ability of the competitor to sustain a price-based response, i.e., whether competitor has “deep pockets”; propensity for “irrational” behavior
oWillingness to Respond on Price 对手如何应对你的调价，广告收入、产品投入or渠道投入
–Direct financial cost to the competitor
oCompetitor Position 你与竞争者的地位
–Market leaders are more likely to initiate; followers are more likely to imitate
Collaborators；
oCollaborator Incentives 在意利率和资产收益率
–How hard will the collaborator work to “push” your product; what kind of “pull” support do they expect?
–What other functions will perform, how much influence do they have? (see Distribution session)
–Also, it’s not just about margins—Return on Assets (ROA) also matters
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