2019-08-27 MSKCC临床决策曲线介绍

文章标题为：Decision curve analysis is a simple method for evaluating prediction models, diagnostic tests, and molecular markers.

介绍了决策分析曲线可用于分析预测模型，诊断试验和分子标志物。

该方法首先发表于：

Vickers AJ, Elkin EB. Decision curve analysis: a novel method for evaluating prediction models. Medical Decision Making. 2006 Nov-Dec;26(6):565-74.

后续一篇讨论文章讲述了更多细节：

Steyerberg EW, Vickers AJ. Decision curve analysis: a discussion. Medical Decision Making. 2008 Jan-Feb;28(1):146-9.

下文介绍了其在生存-时间数据中的应用：

Vickers AJ, Cronin AM, Elkin EB, Gonen M. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making. 2008 Nov 26;8(1):53. Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers.

下面的文章介绍了DCA的更多理论背景：

Vickers AJ. Decision analysis for the evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. Am Stat. 2008;62(4):314-320.

Baker SG, Cook NR, Vickers A, Kramer BS. Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2009 Oct 1;172(4):729-748.

Steyerberg EW, Vickers AJ, Cook NR, Gerds T, Gonen M, Obuchowski N, Pencina MJ, Kattan MW. Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures. Epidemiology. 2010 Jan;21(1):128-38.

Vickers AJ, Cronin AM. Traditional statistical methods for evaluating prediction models are uninformative as to clinical value: towards a decision analytic framework. Semin Oncol. 2010 Feb;37(1):31-8.

下面两篇文章将DCA的运用延伸至治疗反应（treatment response）领域：

Vickers AJ, Kattan MW, Daniel S. Method for evaluating prediction models that apply the results of randomized trials to individual patients. Trials. 2007;8:14

Vickers AJ, Kramer BS, Baker SG. Selecting patients for randomized trials: a systematic approach based on risk group. Trials. 2006;7:30.

多篇社论推荐了该方法：

Kerr KF, Brown MD, Zhu K, Janes H. Assessing the Clinical Impact of Risk Prediction Models With Decision Curves: Guidance for Correct Interpretation and Appropriate Use. J Clin Oncol. 2016 Jul 20;34(21):2534-40. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2015.65.5654.

Vickers AJ, Van Calster B, Steyerberg EW. Net benefit approaches to the evaluation of prediction models, molecular markers, and diagnostic tests. BMJ. 2016 Jan 25;352:i6. doi: 10.1136/bmj.i6.

Fitzgerald M, Saville BR, Lewis RJ. Decision curve analysis. JAMA. 2015 Jan 27;313(4):409-10. doi: 10.1001/jama.2015.37.

Localio AR, Goodman S. Beyond the usual prediction accuracy metrics: reporting results for clinical decision making. Ann Intern Med. 2012 Aug 21;157(4):294-5. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-157-4-201208210-00014.