1. It is not natural for us to learn from history. It is a platitude that children only learn from their own mistakes. People fail to learn that their emotional reactions to past experiences were short-lived — yet they continuously retain the bias of thinking that the purchase of an object will bring long-lasting, possibly permanen, happiness or that a setback will cause severe and prolonged distress (when in the past similar setbacks did not affect them for very long and the joy of the purchase was short-lived).
2. A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point. 这个就像投骰子，如果1234定义为小，56定义为大，那么当你压大的时候，就已经犯错了，不管最终结果是小还是大，而不是知道出现结果了才评判对错。但事实是我们通常都是以结果论对错的。
3. hindsight bias 后见之明，induction 归纳是不准确的，因为历史会出现黑天鹅事件，而这是无法归纳总结历史来预测。deduction 是更准确的，因为其逻辑是步步紧凑的。
4. the survivorship bias 幸存者偏差，我们更容易看到的是幸存者；luck is most frequently the reason for extreme success ；humans have a biological handicap to understand probability.
5. The absence of a central processing system makes us engage in decisions that can be in conflict with each other. You may prefer apples to oranges, oranges to pears, but pears to apples — it depends on how the choices are presented to you. The fact that your mind cannot retain and use e verything you know at once is the cause of such biases.
6. Whn you take a gamble, do you say: "My net worth will end up at 99,000 or 101,500 after the gamble" or do you say "I lose 1,000 or make 1,500?" Your attitude toward the risks and rewards of the gamble will vary according to whether you look at your net worth or changes in it. But in fact in real life you will be put in situations where you will only look at your changes. The fact that the losses hurt more thant the gains, and differently, makes your accumulated preforemance, that is, your total wealth, less relevant thant the last change in it. 意思是让一次是输还是赢更直接影响下一次的行动。
7. Biases that can mislead us include: (1) The availability heuristics, Heuristics and biases are ways to speed up the process of finding solutions. The availability heuristic is just one type of heuristic. In this process, people use the most easily accessible information to inform their decision-making. For example, plane crashes can make people afraid of flying. However, the likelihood of dying in a car accident is far higher than dying as a passenger on an airplane. (2) The representativeness heuristic: gauging the probability that a person belongs to a group by assessing how similar the person's characteristics are to the "typical" group member's. police who are looking for a suspect in a crime might focus disproportionately on Black people in their search, because the representativeness heuristic (and the stereotypes that they are drawing on) causes them to assume that a Black person is more likely to be a criminal than somebody from another group. (3) The simulation heuristic: the ease of mentally undoing an event —playing the alternative scenario. For example, they found that if an affectively negative experience, such as a fatal car accident was brought about by an extraordinary event, such as someone usually goes by train to work but instead drove; the simulation heuristic will cause an emotional reaction of regret. (4) the affect heuristic: what emotions are elicited by events determine their probability in your mind. The affect heuristic describes how we often rely on our emotions, rather than concrete information, when making decisions. This allows us to reach a conclusion quickly and easily, but can also distort our thinking and lead us to make suboptimal choices.
8. A test of a disease presents of rate of 5% false positives. The disease strikes 1/1000 of the population. People are tsted at random, regardless of whether they are suspected of having the disease. A patient's test is positive. what is the probability of the patient being stricken with the disease?
Most people say it 95%. However, it is 1/51, less than 2%. why? 假设这个地方只有1000个人，那么将会有50人都误诊为阳性。而这1000人中只有1个人是有这个疾病的。所以一个随机的人获得阳性结果，那么得病率只是1/51。
9. Expected value and the most likely scenario can be mixed up. However, people mentally overweigh the state that is the most likely. Even if you have 90% of change winning 1 dollar, and 10% chance of losing 10 dollars, most people will believe mistakenly that they will win at the end.
10. Randomness is not always unwelcome. A slightly random schedule prevents us from optimizing and being exceedingly efficient, particularly in the wrong things. Not knowing when the next train leaves can make you fully enjoy your dinner with your friends. This is call satisficer (satisfy and sacrifice) instead of a maximizer. Research shows that those who live under a self0imposed pressure to be optimal in their enjoyment of things suffer a measure of distress.
11. Proximate cause: I eat becaue I am hungry. Ultimate cause: If I didn't have an incentive to eat I would have gracefully exited the gene pool.
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