经济学人精读[39] The Economist [39] |

The Economist 经济学人精读 [39]

选自 December 23 2017 Science and Technology 科技版块

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我是Eva💭

一个认真学英语的美少女😘

Reindeer[驯鹿]

Dreaming of a White Christmas[白色圣诞之梦] 

#Eva💭说#

全球气候变暖对圣诞精灵驯鹿会产生影响。因气候变化引起的“雨雪天气”使得冰层覆盖了驯鹿的食物来源，增加了获取食物来源的困难，一方面使得驯鹿因饥饿无法活过冬天，另一方面因饥饿引起的体重下降使驯鹿繁殖成功率与幼崽成活率大幅下降。将雪和冰层厚度的数据与有关动物自身信息的调查做相关性研究，使得研究人员可以追踪区域情况，并研发出当地生态环境运作的模型，这一方法将有助于放牧人预防因天气变化带来的损失。

#以上，个人总结和理解，欢迎批评指正，欢迎留言讨论#

#有输出才有进步#

Ecologists debate whether a changing climate helps or hurts an iconic[非常出名的，受欢迎的] animal[生态学家就气候改变是否有助于或有害于一个非常受欢迎的动物进行了讨论] 

Many people fear that the rapid disappearance of Arctic sea ice spells doom[意味着厄运] for polar bears[很多人担心北极冰层的快速消失会为北极熊带来灾难]. The effect of global warming on anotherfamous northern species, the reindeer, is, however, less cut and dried[已成定局][然而，全剧变暖对另一种著名的北方的物种，驯鹿的影响还没有成为定局]. Until recently, researchers thought reindeer benefit, rather than suffer, from climate change[直到最近，研究人员认为，驯鹿受益于，而非遭受气候改变的影响]. The lichens[地衣], grasses and shrubs they eat grow better in warmer summers, and their populations have been rising[它们吃的地衣，草和灌木在更温暖的夏天长得更好，同时，它们的数量已经在增加]. But Åshild Ønvik Pedersen and Jean-Charles Gallet of the Norwegian polar Institute (NPI) in Tromsø[特罗姆瑟，挪威], who have been investigating the matter in detail, argue that the benefits of warmer summers may soon be nullified[使无价值] by the countervailing[制衡的]consequences of warmer and wetter winters[但是，特罗姆瑟挪威极地研究所的两位研究人员，详细的对上述的想法进行了调查，并认为更温暖的夏天带来的好处可能会被更加温暖和潮湿的冬天抵消而变的无价值]. 

The reindeer around Ny Ålesund, a former mining town in south-western Svalbard[斯瓦尔巴特群岛（属于挪威的特罗姆瑟地区）] that has now become an Arctic research centre, have been a subject of study for almost four decades[斯瓦尔巴特群岛西南部，从前是一个采矿小镇，现已经成为了北极研究中心，这周围的的驯鹿已经作为研究丢像长达将近四十多年]. In particular, researchers from the NPI have, since 2000, been looking at[思索，思考]the effects on the deer of a phenomenon called “rain-on-snow”[自2000年后，来自挪威极地研究院的研究员尤其在思考一种叫做“雨雪”的现象对鹿的影响]. This happens when it rains during warm spells[（特定天气的）一段短暂持续时间] in the long Arctic winter[雨雪现象会在北极漫长冬天中一段温暖天气的雨中出现]. As the temperature swings back to normal, which can be as low as -30°Cin this part of the world, rainwater that has percolated[渗透] through the snow freezes, forming a thick crust of ice that seals off the tundra[苔原] below[随着气温恢复正常，在这个地方可能会低至零下三十度，雨水渗入冻雪，形成了一层厚厚的冰层，封住了下面的苔原]. To examine the consequences, the NPI’s researchers have been collecting data regularly aboutthe depth of the snow and ice at hundreds of points across Svalbard[为了检测这样带来的后果，NPI研究人员已经在遍布Svalbard的上百个地点定期收集雪和冰层厚度的数据]. 

In the past half century the number of rainy winter days per year on the archipelago[群岛] has more than doubled, with a concomitant[同时发生的事] increase in the amount of ice-bound[冰封着的]tundra[在过去的半个世纪，群岛上每天冬天雨天的数量增长了两倍还多，同时伴随着冰封苔原的增长]. That is bad news for reindeer[这对驯鹿来说事坏消息]. They survive the winter by foraging[觅食] under the snow, which they clear away with theirhooves[蹄][它们通过用蹄子清除雪，在雪下觅食活过冬天]. Unfortunately, they are unable to stamp[重踏，重踩] through surface ice to get at the food underneath if that ice is more than a couple of centimetres thick[但是，如果冰层的厚度超过好几厘米，它们没有办法踏穿冰层得到下面的事物]. Dr Øn- vik Pedersen and Dr Gallet have found that the greater the average thickness of the ice in their study area is, the fewer are the animals that survive the winter and the fewer the calves[幼崽] born the following spring[两位研究人员发现，他们研究区域的冰层平均厚度越大，能过活过冬天动物越少，并且来年春天出生的幼崽也越少]. Sometimes the effect is catastrophic[有些时候，这影响事灾难性的]. In the aftermath[后果] of a particularly severe incident in 1993, for example, the reindeer population of Svalbard fell by nearly 70%[比如，在1993年一次尤其严重的事件之后，Svalbard驯鹿的数量下降了将近70%]. 

Rain. Deer-slaying? [雨。驯鹿杀手？]

Moreover, even when the animals do not die,they suffer[除此之外，及时动物没有死，它们也遭受着痛苦].Another research team, led by Steve Albon of the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen, Britain, has been weighing them regularly[另一个研究团队，由英国亚伯丁詹姆斯赫顿研究院Steve Albon带领，定期给动物称重]. Dr Alban's team has found, to no one’s surprise, that reindeer lose a lot of weight—as much as 20%—after bad icing events[不出所有人的意外，Dr ALbon的团队发现，驯鹿在恶劣的冰冻之后，体重下降了多达20%]. More surprisingly, and more worryingly, the team has also found a long-term decline in the animals’weight[更意外，也让人更担心的是，团队同时发现了动物体重的长期下降].Adult female reindeer in Svalbard weigh today, on average, 12% less than their counterparts did in 1994[Svalbard现在成年雌驯鹿的平均称重比1994年成年雌驯鹿减少了12%]. That has brought many of them below 50kg, which experience suggests is a threshold beyond which their reproductive success and the survival of their calves decline sharply[这使得它们其中有很多体重在50公斤一下，而从经验得出，50公斤是一个临界体重，低于50公斤会使它们繁殖的成功率和幼崽的成活率大幅下降]. 

Nor is it just reindeer that are affected by rain-on-snow events[驯鹿不是仅受雨雪天气影响的动物]. Dr Ønvik Pedersen’steam has found that at least three other species—ptarmigans (a type of grouse), sibling voles and Arctic foxes—are similarly hit[Dr Ønvik Pedersen的团队发现，至少有三个物种遭受类似的伤害，分别是松鸡，田鼠，和北极狐]. The consequences of rain-on-snow events could thus, she argues, cascade through the Arctic ecosystem[她认为，雨雪天气的后果可能会层级贯穿北极生态系统]. 

Correlating the snow- and ice-depth data with information from surveys about the animals themselves (including their whereabouts, body weights, winter survival rate and reproduction) permits the researchers to track the situation and to develop models of how the local ecosystem works[将雪和冰层厚度的数据与有关动物自身信息（包活它们的去向，体重）的调查做相关性研究，使得研究人员可以追踪情况，并研发出当地生态环境运作的模型]. In particular, they are looking for tipping points[临界点] beyond which rain-on-snow events could have irreversible[不可更改的] effects on the Arctic food web[他们在特别寻找临界点，超过这个临界点，雨雪天气对北极食物网的影响可能是不可改变的]. 

In the shorter term their approach may help prevent incidents such as that which happened four years ago on the Yamal peninsula in Siberia[短期内，他们的方法可能会有助于预防像西伯利亚亚马尔半岛四年前发生的事情]. Unlike reindeer in Svalbard, which are wild, Yamal’s are herded[放牧] by local people[不像Svalbard的驯鹿事野生的，亚马尔的驯鹿是由当地人放养]. These herders lost 61,000 of their beasts to starvation after rainstorms deluged[泛滥] the region in November 2013 [2013年11月这一区域暴雨泛滥，牲畜因雨后饥饿而死，使这些放牧人失去了6.1万头牲畜]. If headers knew which places would be hit badly on such occasions, they could then take their animals to less threatened areas—or, were that not possible, call up mobile slaughterhouses[屠宰场] to kill the deer humanely, before they lost weight, thus minimising financial losses[如果放牧人知道那些地方会严重遭受这样的情况，他们可以将动物带领至影响较轻的区域，如果这不可能的话，他们也可以给屠宰场打电话，在它们体重下降前人道的杀死这些鹿，以减少经济损失]. Applying Dr Ønvik Pedersen’s methods to regions where herders operate would assist that[将Dr Ønvik的方法应用到放牧人管理的区域将会在这件事上有帮助]. 

20171228   742 words

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我是Eva💭

一个认真学英语的美少女😘