用 Python 验证股神巴菲特的投资经验

股神巴菲特在面对公众的时候，第一常干的事情是喝可乐卖萌。

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第二常干的事情，就是不断的教导大家：

<bi style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block;">“对于个人投资者而言，最好的投资方式就是指数定投！”</bi>

什么是指数定投？

所谓指数定投，就是不管股市的涨跌，每月都拿出一笔钱来买指数基金。

指数基金简单理解就是，它会帮你不做选择的买入所有的股票。

巴菲特这么推荐指数定投，主要有两点原因。

1. 基金经理太无能，数据证明没几个基金经理的业绩可以持续超过指数。所以选基金不如直接买指数。

2. 指数定投省时省力，不用在上班的时候还盯着股票。年轻人花更多的时间努力工作提升自己，才是最有价值的投资。

并且巴菲特还说，指数定投在任何时候都能开始。即使在股灾之前的最高点进入，也不用担心亏钱。

刚看到这个说法的时候我表示相当怀疑。难道我在上证指数历史最高6000多点的时候(2007年10月)开始定投，也能不亏钱？

股神不会在坑我们吧？

Python验证

源代码加群!欢迎加入新手技术交流基地：*1004391443 群里有大牛解答，有资源，有源码，学不学的会就看你了！

作为熟练使用Python的我们，这时候就要写几行代码，来看看是否果真如此。

为了简单起见，我们直接用指数代替指数基金。我们找来上证指数的数据，如下图所示：

<tt-image data-tteditor-tag="tteditorTag" contenteditable="false" class="syl1555742374909 ql-align-center" data-render-status="finished" data-syl-blot="image" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: text; text-align: left; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: block;"> image

<input class="pgc-img-caption-ipt" placeholder="图片描述(最多50字)" value="" style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: 0px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); position: absolute; left: 187.5px; transform: translateX(-50%); padding: 6px 7px; max-width: 100%; width: 375px; text-align: center; cursor: text; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; border: 0px solid rgb(217, 217, 217); border-radius: 4px; transition: all 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.645, 0.045, 0.355, 1) 0s;"></tt-image>

我们定投的方式是，在每月1号，花1000元买入指数。

作为对照组，我们也每月花1000元买入余额宝或其他理财产品。假定余额宝的年化收益是4%。

下面就是具体的Python代码，用来计算两种方式具体的收益。

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指数腰斩，定投不亏

假设我们运气奇差无比，从上证指数历史最高点6124开始定投。

一直定投到2009年的7月末，此时上证指数跌至3333点，已经腰斩。

<tt-image data-tteditor-tag="tteditorTag" contenteditable="false" class="syl1555742374916" data-render-status="finished" data-syl-blot="image" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: text; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: block;"> image

<input class="pgc-img-caption-ipt" placeholder="图片描述(最多50字)" value="" style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: 0px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); position: absolute; left: 187.5px; transform: translateX(-50%); padding: 6px 7px; max-width: 100%; width: 375px; text-align: center; cursor: text; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; border: 0px solid rgb(217, 217, 217); border-radius: 4px; transition: all 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.645, 0.045, 0.355, 1) 0s;"></tt-image>

运行程序后，最终结果如下图：

<tt-image data-tteditor-tag="tteditorTag" contenteditable="false" class="syl1555742374917" data-render-status="finished" data-syl-blot="image" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: text; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: block;"> image <input class="pgc-img-caption-ipt" placeholder="图片描述(最多50字)" value="" style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: 0px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); position: absolute; left: 187.5px; transform: translateX(-50%); padding: 6px 7px; max-width: 100%; width: 375px; text-align: center; cursor: text; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; border: 0px solid rgb(217, 217, 217); border-radius: 4px; transition: all 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.645, 0.045, 0.355, 1) 0s;"></tt-image> <tt-image data-tteditor-tag="tteditorTag" contenteditable="false" class="syl1555742374920" data-render-status="finished" data-syl-blot="image" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: text; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; display: block;"> image

<input class="pgc-img-caption-ipt" placeholder="图片描述(最多50字)" value="" style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: 0px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); position: absolute; left: 187.5px; transform: translateX(-50%); padding: 6px 7px; max-width: 100%; width: 375px; text-align: center; cursor: text; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; border: 0px solid rgb(217, 217, 217); border-radius: 4px; transition: all 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.645, 0.045, 0.355, 1) 0s;"></tt-image>

从图中可以看到，这段时间共有22个月，每个月投1000元，总共投入了22000元。

图中绿线是定投余额宝的资金曲线，最终结果是22878。

蓝线是定投指数的资金曲线，最终的收益是26567元。

居然不仅比对照组高，还高出了16%！

而且这还是在图中红线代表的上证指数大跌50%的情况下取得的！

指数不涨，定投猛增

我们再尝试把定投的时间段拉长，从2007年10月一直定投到2015年6月。

在此期间，上证指数从6000点跌到5000点，没有涨也没有跌太多。

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定投实验结果如下图：

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<input class="pgc-img-caption-ipt" placeholder="图片描述(最多50字)" value="" style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: 0px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); position: absolute; left: 187.5px; transform: translateX(-50%); padding: 6px 7px; max-width: 100%; width: 375px; text-align: center; cursor: text; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; border: 0px solid rgb(217, 217, 217); border-radius: 4px; transition: all 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.645, 0.045, 0.355, 1) 0s;"></tt-image>

期间93个月总共投入93000元。定投余额宝的最终变成108136元。

定投指数的最终变成了186958元。

在指数都没涨的情况下，9万变18万，本金翻倍！

比特币定投

最近投资界最火的品种莫过于比特币了。从2016年初到2017年8月，比特币从3000涨到3万，翻了10倍。

但是它的高风险也让很多人望而却步。对于这样波动巨大、但又长期看涨的品种，其实定投是一个非常不错的方式。

假设从2016起我们每月花1000元购买比特币，一直到2017年8月：

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收益结果如下图：

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<input class="pgc-img-caption-ipt" placeholder="图片描述(最多50字)" value="" style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: 0px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); position: absolute; left: 187.5px; transform: translateX(-50%); padding: 6px 7px; max-width: 100%; width: 375px; text-align: center; cursor: text; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.5; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-image: none; border: 0px solid rgb(217, 217, 217); border-radius: 4px; transition: all 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.645, 0.045, 0.355, 1) 0s;"></tt-image>

20个月总共投入20000元，最终变成了124439元！

实验进行到这里，只想说一句：股神诚不欺我也！

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