人民币强势升值 对香港影响几何

人民币强势升值 对香港影响几何

2018年2月14日

 在过去的几个月里，人民币兑美元汇率强势升高，并且12个月累计升值达到了自2008年以来最高点。2017年全年累计升值6.4%，2017年1月人民币兑美元上涨3.5%，达到了自1994年汇改以来最大升值幅度。

人民币升值的主要原因得益于中国高于预期的经济发展情况，2017年全年GDP增长6.9%，高于预期，同时中国领导人计划提高人民币汇率已提高中国的进口情况。

同时，美元自身的走低也收窄了人民币和美元的汇率差。川普政府的政治不确定性，美国自身经济状况恢复低于预期和欧洲经济的复苏都对美元贬值推波助澜。且一些经济学家和政治家也寄期望于美国汇率走低来帮助美国的进口。

面对人民币走强和美元贬值的双重压力下，香港，正在承受来自双方的货币政策、自身的输入性通胀和资产外流的风险。

香港的货币系统以7.75至7.85港币兑1美元的浮动汇率与美元挂钩，受到来自美元的贬值和和美国货币政策的冲击。在过去的一年，港币兑美元汇率直逼7.8大关。

图片来自Bloomberg

且因汇率挂钩，香港需要跟随美联储的货币政策来对自身的货币系统进行调整。

近年来，香港与内地经济联系变得更为紧密，大陆市场占了香港经济的大部分分割，但是港币却与美元挂钩，远远与自己日益依赖的内地经济环境背道而驰。在美元不断贬值的情况，香港货币环境只能说是有苦难言。

香港作为全球贸易整合和交流的中转站，其贸易自由港的经济结构也难免输入性通胀的风险。

香港制造产业薄弱，多依靠进口外来产品和内地产品，大量进口份额带来的直接结果就是人民币升值对香港CPI的影响。作为香港最大的进口伙伴，中国在2016年占到了香港总进口额度的40%，产值达到1万6千亿港币。

伴随着美元贬值，港币购买力的下降也提高了其遭受输入性通胀的可能性。这对于香港普通民众而言也是不得不面对的风险，日常开支的增加对普通民众的生活有着直接影响。

同时，香港和大陆的投资环境也将遭受影响，但更多是正面积极的影响。作为香港投资的主要目的地，人民币升值无疑会为香港投资者带来更多的回报；人民币升值也促使内地对香港物业和其他投资项目的需求增加，进一步提高人民币的购买力。

但鉴于大陆的金融市场并非完全的对外开放，面对人民币升值的投资机会，更多国际热钱将选择香港作为投资首选，并从美元贬值中套利。热钱流入增加了香港货币市场的流动性，货币供给供大于求，对香港通货膨胀带来了进一步的压力。

但在另一方面，人民币升值也带给香港经济很多机会，出了投资以外，还包括了零售市场和旅游行业。人民币升值带动赴港旅游热潮，2016年香港入境游客大陆游客占比76%，香港旅游行业占比GDP 4.7%。香港零售市场也逐渐回暖，总零售额增长2.2%，体量增长1.9%。但旅游行业对香港总体经济的贡献依然有限，很难成为驱动香港总体经济的关键因素。

总而言之，在目前的形势下，香港所承受的经济压力是来自全球经济一体化和其自身货币系统的风险。也许，香港是时候选择让港币挂钩人民币而不是美元了。

Theripple effect of a weak US dollar and strong RMB Yuan in Hong Kong

Over the last few month, the exchange rate of RMB Yuanagainst the USD has went up most dramatically and the cumulative incensement inthe past 12 months was the highest since 2008. After the cumulativeappreciation of 6.4% in 2017, the RMB appreciated by 3.5% against the USD inJanuary 2017, setting the largest one-month increase since the reform in 1994.[1]

The main reason for the RMB appreciation is China’s

better economy performance with the GDP increased 6.9% y-o-y in 2017，higher than expected. And a topChinese leader in charge of economic policy indicated recently that China wouldsignificantly increase its imports, which needs stronger RMB.

Another reason is that the USD depreciation, narrowingthe exchange rate gap between USD and RMB. It’s the result from the politicaluncertainty of the Trump government, the good recovery of European economy and(the recovery of American’s economy and the Fed rate hike) are less thanexpected. And some economists and political analysts expect the US to keep thedollar weak in order to help US exports.

Under the strong RMB and weak USD circumstance, HongKong economy is facing the challenge from the currency policy, importedinflation and wealth inflow.

Hong Kong’s current currency system makes Hong Kong

have to face the challenge brought from the depreciation of USD. Hong Kong’s

monetary policy follows the U.S. as the HKD is pegged at rate floating from

7.75-7.85 to 1 USD. But in the past 1 year，the exchange rate shows an rising trend and reached over 7.80, which usually at7.75 in the past years.

Hong Kong also have to follow the Fed rate hike tokeep the currency system maintaining the balance.

The growth trend makes it increasingly hard for HongKong economy since it’s becoming more and more rely on mainland economy inrecent years and Hong Kong and U.S. are too economically different for a pegsystem [2].

And because the globaleconomy integration and the feature of Hong Kong’s economy structure, theimported inflation is another unavoidable threat to Hong Kong economy.

Hong Kong is heavilydepending on imported goods. The most direct channel through which asappreciation of the RMB can affect Hong Kong’s CPI is through changes in pricesof imported goods from the mainland. Mainland is Hong Kong’s biggest importstrading partners, accounting for 40% of whole imported trading shares at about1.6 trillion HKD in 2016.[3]Stronger the RMB is, higher thepossibility of the imported inflation is. 

And with the depreciation of USD, HKD is losing purchasing power and it will increase the pressure of the imported inflation. It will make Hong Kong resident to spend more on from daily necessities to all commodities.

Meanwhile, the investment environment in Hong Kong andmainland will be influenced. Because mainland is major investment destinationand important income source for Hong Kong, the appreciation of RMB willincrease the market value of the investment, benefiting the HK investors. Thedemand of mainland investors investing in HK properties and other investmentprojects will also grow with the increasing purchasing power of the RMB.[4]

And since the mainland finance market is not totallyopen, the international heated capital will flow into Hong Kong market with theexpectations of further appreciation of the RMB and arbitrage opportunity ofUSD deprecation.

The wealth inflows will increase the liquidity of HongKong monetary market, driving the currency supply over the demand and bringing more pressure to the inflation.

On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB bringsopportunity to Hong Kong’s economy, especially the retail market and tourism.As the RMB getting stronger, the demand from mainland visitors for Hong Kong’stourism services will increase. Hong Kong mainland visitors accounting for 76%of the total visitors in 2016 and tourism, one the four pillar economic sectorsof Hong Kong, contributed 4.7% GDP.[5]The Hong Kong retail market growth number in 2017 has proved thatwith revive tourism, the figures increased by 2.2% in in value and 1.9% involume.[6]

In contrast, Hong Kong residents will spend less in the mainland.

In conclusion, Hong Kong’s economy will face thechallenge bring from the global economy integration and HK’s current currencysystem under such currency change trend. Maybe it’s the time for the governmentto think about change the HKD pegged to the RMB.

Reference：

[1] 新浪财经，人民币1月份升值3.5%创1994年汇改以来最大单月涨幅，http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/rmb/2018-01-31/doc-ifyqyuhy7979775.shtml

[2] South China MorningPost,To peg or not to peg? That is the

question for the Hong Kong dollar, http://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2085775/peg-or-not-peg-question-hong-hong-dollar

[3]

Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade，2017.12，https://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B10200052017MM12B0100.pdf

[4] HKMA,http://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/publication-and-research/quarterly-bulletin/qb201006/fa1.pdf

[5] HKTDC,Economic and Trade Information on Hong Kong,2018.1.26, http://t.cn/zRW6BLz

[6] Census andStatistics Department,Provisional

statistics of retail sales for December 2017 and for whole year of 2017, http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201802/01/P2018020100410.htm