the chip war
A new escalation in the tech conflict illustrates the limits of American power
技术战争的再度升级表明美国影响力的局限
If at first you don’t succeed,try again.A year ago America forbade its high-tech companies from selling to Huawei, a Chinese maker of smartphones and mobile-network infrastructure. American officials worry that Huawei-powered phone networks could aid Chinese spying (something the firm denies), and about China’s growing technological prowess more generally. But the embargo turned out to be puny. Loopholes allowed American firms to carry on supplying Huawei from overseas factories. The Chinese firm’s revenues rose by19% in 2019,to $123bn. Thanks to its efforts to stockpile parts, its purchases from American suppliers rose by 70%,to $19bn.
如果最初没有成功，那就再试一次。一年前，美国禁止本国高科技公司卖产品给华为-一家智能手机和移动网络的中国制造商。美国官方一方面担心华为手机网络可能会帮助中国间谍（而华为方否认了这一点）。另一方面,也担心中国不断发展的技术实力影响更普遍。但是结果证明这一禁令起到的作用微乎其微。禁令存在的漏洞让美国公司的海外工厂继续供应华为。2019年，华为的营业额增加了19%，达到1230亿美元。多亏了其加强了库存力度，公司从美国供应商采购的采购额增加了70%，达到了190亿美元。
On May 15th America tried a different tack. It announced new rules that target Huawei’s in-house microchips, which power many of the firm’s products. The rules are aimed at the factories that take such designs and turn them into working silicon, such as those owned by tsmc in Taiwan and smic in China. They specify that no American tools can be used to make Huawei’s products. Since every big chipmaker uses some American tools,the effectis to freeze Huawei out completely. The Chinese giant denounced a “pernicious” decision that “threatens to undermine the entire industry worldwide”.
5月15日，美国尝试了与之前不同的另一种策略，宣布了一项针对华为内部微芯片的新限制规则，公司的许多产品都依赖其内部微芯片。这一规则旨在针对那些使用美国公司设计技术并制造微芯片的代工工厂，比如说，台湾的台积电以及中国大陆的中芯国际。美方明确说明，禁止使用美国工具制造华为产品。由于每一个大型的芯片制造商都会使用到一些美国工具，这一举措意在彻底地钳制住华为。对此，这家中国巨头公开指责称，这是一个危害全球整个行业的险恶决定。
The microchip is an American invention. But the chipmaking business has gone global.These days the dozen biggest semiconductor firms make only 27% of their sales in America.Just 20% of
their plant is physically based there.Huawei evaded the worst effects of America’s original blacklist by switching suppliers and
buying from non-American factories. The new measures focus on a bottleneck instead: a cohort of American-based chip-equipment firms whose products lack substitutes.
微芯片技术是一项美国发明。但是生产微芯片的公司遍及全球。目前，十几家最大的半导体公司在美国的销售额只占其总销售额的27%，真正在美国建有工厂的只有20%。通过切换微芯片供应商，以及从非美国工厂购买微芯片，华为规避了美国最初将其加入实体黑名单带来的最坏影响。如今新举措转而集中在微芯片技术的瓶颈:一群美国芯片设备公司，其生产的芯片设备不可替代。
Huawei has said its survival is at stake. Markets are more sanguine. The price of its bonds, which are traded in Hong Kong,
barely dipped. It has spent the past year beefing up its large cash buffers and inventories. Now a hunt will begin for a new way to sidestep the rules. China’s long-term project to build up its own chip industry, of which Huawei is a vital part, will be seen as
more important than ever. On May 15th smic, which is China’s biggest chipmaker, said it had raised $2bn from state investors and planned to increase its capacity in China six-fold.
华为表示新举措危及其生存。而市场对此却比较乐观，公司在香港交易的债券价格几乎未受影响。过去一年，华为一直在加强其庞大的现金缓冲，并增加其库存量。现在，一场寻求新的规避方法的行动即将开始。中国加强本国芯片产业的长期计划将比以往任何时候都更加重要，华为则是这一计划至关重要的一部分。5月15日，中国大陆最大的芯片制造商中芯国际表示，公司已从国家投资者募集到20亿美金，并计划将其在中国的产量增加6倍。
The episode will have broader consequences for the tech industry. China could retaliate by hobbling American tech firms that make money on the mainland, including Apple. And as the decoupling of America and China accelerates, tech firms that straddle the two are experimenting with ways to try to keep both sides happy. On May 15th tsmc said it would build a $12bn chip plant in Arizona. Four days later ByteDance, a Chinese socialmedia giant, said that it had appointed Kevin Mayer, a Disney executive, to run TikTok, its most popular app. Having an American in charge may ease worries in Washington about a Chinese app that is installed on millions of American smartphones.
这一事件将会对科技产业产生更广泛的后果。作为反击，中国可能会阻止包括苹果在内的美国公司在大陆继续赚钱。随着中美脱钩的加剧，跨中美两国的科技公司正在尝试保持两者之间的平衡的解决办法。5月15日，台积电宣称将在美国亚利桑那州建造一座价值120亿美元的芯片工厂。四天后，中国社交媒体巨头字节跳动表示，公司指定前迪士尼的执行官Kevin Mayer出任其最火app抖音国际版TikTok的首席执行官。让一个美国人负责TikTok或许可以减轻美国对于这款app的担忧，毕竟数百万美国手机上都装有这个该app。
The tech war is guaranteed to make the chip
industry less efficient. The big question is
whether using technological clout ends up undermining the very American dominance that gives rise to it. No one knows how vital American chipmaking technology really is, because until now there has been no reason to find out. Many governments are wary of
China’s power. But they may chafe at American policies that tell their firms who they are allowed to do business with. They may even conclude that wriggling out from under such restrictions by shunning American suppliers is worth a try.
科技战争必定会使芯片业生产效率降低。最大的问题是使用技术影响力是否最终会破坏美国支配地位，而这一支配地位恰恰来自于技术影响力。无人知晓美国芯片制造技术的真正的重要程度，因为至今尚找不出其原因。许多国家都警惕中国的力量，但同时也对这样的美国政策心生不满，即自己可以和谁做生意要美国说了算。他们甚至可能会得出如下结论，与其受这样的限制，不如努力一试，摆脱美国供应商。
This has, after all,happened before. The aerospace industry is another high-tech business that America jealously guards. The
hassle of complying with draconian export rules has proved a selling-point for products that contain no American technology—“itar-free”, in the jargon. America’s hawks plainly think that the chance to spike Huawei’s guns, and to slow China’s technological development, is worth that long-term risk.
这种情况毕竟也有先例。航空航天业是美国嫉妒的另一个高科技行业。遵守苛刻的出口规定带来的麻烦使不包括美国技术成为产品卖点，行话称itar-free，(ITAR是《国际武器贸易条例》的字母缩写) 。显然美国鹰派认为，这个钳制华为并减缓中国技术发展的机会值得长期冒险。
（鹰派”和“鸽派”是美国国内存在的两种主要势力。主张用武力解决争端的一派被称为“鹰派”，主张用和平手段解决问题的被称为“鸽派”。 ）
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