这部分讲的是假设，我们谈论的所有事情分两类一类是事实，另一类是观点。所谓的事实就是不以任何一个人的意志为转移。无论你，我还是其他人对这个事实的看法如何，她作为事实都不会受任何影响的不变。事实是客观的存在。
观点是人们的看法，是主观的存在，一个人可能有一个观点，甚至多个观点。人与人的观点不同。
而如果要让别人接受你的观点或者向别人表达你的观点，就需要论证推理的过程。
推理过程是由前提和结论组成的。从前提得到结论。这个过程中会用到很多方法，比如总结，比如类比。
所有的前提在一个推理过程中都是被认定为真的。也就是必须确定前提是真才有论证的后面过程。如果前提是假的，就不存在后面的推理论证过程了。
而假设是一种没有经过认真推理过程的观点。经不起推敲，直接从人们的直觉或者生活经验中存在。这种假设可以避免人们每次都要痛苦推理的过程，为了让人们在一个有很多共同点的世界里轻松的生活。所以会有很多经不起推敲，没有证据支持的假设。
毫无依据的假设
As we saw in Chapter 12, a conclusion is a judgment made after thinking (It may be carefully or hastily formed.) We reach conclusions through reasoning. An assumption, on the other hand, is an idea we have in mind without having thought about it. It is not arrived at by reasoning but merely taken for granted.
正如我们在第12章中看到的那样，结论是在思考之后作出的一个判断（它可能是小心谨慎地或仓促地形成的）。我们通过推理得出结论。另一方面，假设是我们没有仔细考虑过的想法。这不是通过推理得出的，而仅仅 是理所当然的 。
It is natural to make assumptions. Every day we make hundreds of them. Students walking across campus to class assume that the building is open, that the teacher is still alive and sufficiently motivated to be there, that their watches are accurate in indicating that it is time for class, and that going to class will help them learn the subject (or at least not hinder them from learning it). Without assumptions, we would have to ponder every word we utter, every move we make every single moment of every day. Obviously, that would represent an enormous output of energy. The net effect would be to increase our fatigue to an intolerable level and to hinder progress.
做出假设是很自然的。我们每天制造数百个假设。穿过校园走到课堂的学生认为建筑是开放的，老师仍然活动着，充满动力去到那里，他们的手表准确地表明上课时间，而且上课将帮助他们学习主题（或至少不妨碍他们学习）。没有假设，我们必须仔细思考每一个字，每一个动作我们每一天的每一刻。显然这代表了巨大的能量输出。其实际效果是将我们的疲劳感增加到难以忍受的程度并阻碍进步。
Fortunately, many of the assumptions we make are warranted. That is, they are justified in the particular circumstances. In the case of the students walking to class, probably every one of the assumptions they make is warranted. The experience of walking to class day after day and finding the building open and the teacher there with a helpful lecture to deliver has made those assumptions reasonable. In fact, even on the first day of class those assumptions would undoubtedly be warranted if the school were accredited and had published a schedule saying that class would be held at that time. (In that case, the justification to assume would not be quite so strong as later in the semester, but the assumptions would still be warranted.)
幸运的是，我们所做的许多假设都是有保证的。也就是说，他们在特定的情况下是合理的。在学生走上课堂的情况下，可能他们所做的每一个假设都是有保证的。每天步行去上课并找到建筑开放的经验以及那里的老师提供有用的讲座来实现这些假设是合理的。事实上，即使在上课的第一天，如果学校获得认证并公布了一个表示当时将举办课程的时间表，那么这些假设无疑是合理的。 （在这种情况下，假设的理由不会像本学期晚些时候那么强烈，但假设仍然是有必要的。）
But what if something unexpected happened? If the class were at 8:00 A.M., the custodian may have neglected to open the door to the building. Or the teacher may have become ill that morning and stayed home. Would that make the students' assumptions that the building would be open and the teacher there unwarranted? No. in such cases we would say that the students were justified in assuming that those things would happen, but they just did not happen. What makes an assumption unwarranted is taking too much for granted. For example, if the students had heard on the previous evening's news that the teacher had just been seriously injured in an automobile accident, it would be unwarranted for them to assume he would be in class the next day.
但如果发生意外事件呢？如果课程是在上午8:00，保管人可能忽视了打开大楼的大门。或者，那个早上的老师可能会生病并留在家中。这是否会让学生假设该建筑是开放的，那里的老师是不合理的？不，在这种情况下，我们会说学生有理由认为这些事情会发生，但他们只是没有发生。没有依据的假设太过于理所当然。例如，如果学生们在前一天晚上的新闻中听说过老师在车祸中刚刚受伤，那么他们认为他将在第二天上课是没有理由的。
ASSUMPTIONS REFLECT OUTLOOK
假设反映了观点
All the assumptions discussed so far have concerned relatively routine matters. Yet the network of assumptions people make goes far beyond the routine. It is intimately bound up with their outlook on a large and diverse number of subjects. People may assume that the elected officials of their city, state, and nation are honest and work for the interests of their constituents. Or they may assume the reverse. They may go to the polls each November confident that their vote matters or they may stay at home on the assumption that it does not. When a world crisis develops that involves the nation (the outbreak of armed conflict is the most dramatic example), people may assume that their country is entirely in the right, or that it is entirely in the wrong, or that some fault lies on each side.
到目前为止所讨论的所有假设都涉及相对常规的问题。然而，人们所做的假设远远超出了常规。它与他们对大量不同主题的观点密切相关。人们可能会假设，他们的城市、州和民族的民选官员是诚实的，并为他们的选民的利益而工作。或者他们可能会假设相反。他们可能会在每年11月份参加民意调查，以确信他们的投票很重要，或者他们可能会在家中假设他们投票没那么重要。当涉及国家的世界危机发展时（武装冲突爆发是最激动人心的例子），人们可能会认为他们的国家完全是对的，或者完全是错的，或者每个国家都有一些错误面。
Many people take it for granted that the teachers in their local schools are adequately trained in the subjects they teach, have carefully and fairly worked out their grading systems, and have painstakingly developed meaningful lessons. They may also assume that the school's administrators are aware of what is happening in the various classrooms, have developed precise methods of evaluating faculty performance, and are applying those methods to identify the most and least effective performances. Others, of course, assume exactly the opposite.
许多人认为当地学校的教师对他们所教的科目有充分的培训，认真和公正地制定了他们的评分系统，并且辛苦地开发了有意义的课程。他们也可以假设学校的管理人员知道各个教室发生的事情，制定了评估教师绩效的精确方法，并且正在应用这些方法来确定最有效和最没有效的表现。当然，其他人则完全相反。
Most people hold similar assumptions about other areas of endeavor: about medicine, law, and other professions, about industry, about small and large businesses, about the numerous organizations found in society. And their general assumptions usually govern their particular ones. The person who assumes that all doctors are quacks will be inclined to assume that the particular doctors she visits is also a quack.
大多数人对其他领域有着类似的假设：关于医药，法律和其他行业，关于工业，关于小型和大型企业，关于社会中发现的众多组织。而他们的一般假设通常管理他们的特定的假设。假设所有医生都是庸医的人会倾向于认为她访问的特定医生也是庸医。
Which of those assumptions are warranted? Those for which the person has sufficient experience that supports that assumption better than any other one. What is"sufficient" depends on the situation; the more general and sweeping the assumption, the more experience would be needed. Unfortunately, it is very easy to take too much for granted, to assume something with little or no experience or for which the experience leads equally well to an entirely different view.
哪些假设是必要的？那些人所拥有的经验足以支持这一假设的比其他人更好。什么是“充足的”取决于情况; 更普遍和更广泛的假设，就需要更多的经验。不幸的是，认为太理所当然是很容易的，可以假设一些经验很少或没有经验的人，或者对于这些经验，他们可以得出完全不同的看法。
POPULAR UNWARRANTED ASSUMPTIONS
常见的无依据的假设
Many viewers of the Dracula movies assume the main character was purely a fiction.They do so casually, with little or no warrant. The assumption is unwarranted, for there could easily have been a real-life villain that the horrible movie Dracula was patterned after. In fact, there was one. His name was Vlad Tepes, nicknamed "Dracula." Tepes was a fifteenth-century Rumanian nobleman who ruled so cruelly that peasants of the time regarded him as a human vampire.Though he never bit people's necks and drank their blood, he once invited the poor and sick people of his domain to a large feast and then set fire to the banquet hall. Another time a Turkish ambassador and his party nailed to their heads. Certainly, his most horrible deed was to have the heads of twenty thousand of his victims cut off and mounted on stakes for display.
许多德库拉电影的观众认为主角纯属虚构。他们这样做是随便的，很少或者没有任何依据。这个假设是没有根据的，因为可怕的电影“德古拉”之后很容易成为现实生活中的恶棍。其实有一个。他的名字叫Vlad Tepes，绰号“Draculya”。泰佩斯是一位十五世纪的罗马尼亚贵族，他统治的时代非常残酷，当时的农民把他当作人类吸血鬼。虽然他从不咬人的脖子，喝了鲜血，但他曾邀请他的领域里的穷人和病人去参加一场盛大的盛宴，然后向宴会厅放火。另一次，土耳其大使和他的政党钉着他们的头。当然，他最可怕的行为是把 两万人他的受害者的头颅 切断并登上赌注展示。
For decades many Americans assumed that China was a medically backward country. The basis of their assumption was little more than the more general assumption that the Chinese were socially backward. Because China was closed to Westerners, no substantial evidence was obtainable to support any assumption about Chinese medicine. So no assumption was warranted. (Since the early 1970s, when visitors were permitted in China, reports have suggested not only that their health care is quite advanced but that in general, it is better for the average person than what is available in the United States.)
几十年来，许多美国人认为中国是一个医疗落后的国家。他们的假设基础不过是中国人在社会上落后的更普遍的假设。由于中国不接受西方人，所以没有实质证据支持任何有关中国医疗的假设。所以没有任何假设是有证据支持的。（自20世纪70年代初以来，当访问者被允许进入中国时，报道表明，不仅他们的医疗保健相当先进，而且总的来说，对于一般人而言，这比美国的人更好。）
Similarly, the traditional assumption of white and black America about American Indian medicine men has been that they are charlatans, dispensing superstition that certainly can't help anyone who is really sick. This assumption is not based on any knowledge but merely on a generally derogatory view of the American Indian. Only in the past decade or two have many people begun to learn the value of the medicine man's treatment. The National Institute of Mental Health, for example, established a scholarship program to help Navajo Indians study "during ceremonials" under tribal medicine men. One of the supporters of this program, psychiatrist Robert Bergman, Knows a medicine man who "apparently cured a psychotic woman after a modern psychiatric hospital had failed to help her."
同样，传统的白人和黑人美国人对美国印度医学家的假设一直认为他们是骗子，因为分配迷信肯定不能帮助任何真正生病的人。这种假设不是基于任何知识，而仅仅是对美国印第安人的普遍贬损的看法。只有在过去的十几二十年中，很多人才开始学习药物治疗的价值。例如，美国国家精神卫生研究所设立了一个奖学金计划，以帮助纳瓦霍印第安人研究部落医学男性的“治愈仪式”。这项计划的支持者之一，精神科医生罗伯特伯格曼，知道一位医生，“在一家现代精神病医院无法治疗精神病患者后显然治愈了这位精神病患者。”
When the sexual liberation movement was launched in modern America, it was rather widely assumed that sexually promiscuous people are more emotionally healthy and stable than their "straight" neighbors; in other words, that the former do not need the crutch of traditional morality but can choose their behavior freely and independently. Actually, though supported by the existence of sexually oriented magazines, books, and films and by the mood of the time that sexual "rules" are narrow and restricting, there was no evidence linking promiscuity to emotional health. The assumption was probably grounded more in wishful thinking or acceptance of others' wishful thinking than any experience or evidence. In other words, it was unwarranted. (At least one study suggests that sexual promiscuity is the reverse of what was assumed: not a sign of strength but of deficiency. Dr. I. Emery Breitner claims the eighty-eight promiscuous people he studied were lonely people looking for companionship and approval and using sex as the means to find it. He terms them "love addict.")
当性解放运动在现代美国发起时，人们普遍认为性淫乱的人比他们的“直接”邻居在情感上更健康，更稳定;换句话说，前者不需要传统道德的拐杖，而是可以自由和独立地选择自己的行为。实际上，尽管有支持自由性取向的杂志，书籍和电影的存在，以及性“规则”狭隘和限制的时间的，但没有证据将滥交与情绪健康联系起来。假设可能更多地置于一厢情愿的想法或接受他人的一厢情愿的想法。换句话说，这是没有根据的。 （至少有一项研究表明，性滥交与所假设的相反：不是力量的表现，而是缺陷。伊梅里布雷特纳博士声称，他研究的八十八个混杂的人是孤独的人寻找陪伴和认同，并用性作为找到它的手段。他称他们为“爱上瘾者”。）
One of the most common unwarranted assumptions is that the present European and American concept of childhood has always existed. Europeans and Americans' only reason for taking it for granted is that they have been familiar with that concept since their own earliest years. That, of course, is not sufficient reason. Naturally, the concept is familiar to them. But they have not experienced living and thinking in 3000 B.C. or in A.D. 1500, so they have no warrant to assume that people in those times shared all our concepts and values. Indeed, the barest contact with history give ample suggestions that concepts and values change.
最常见的无理假设之一是，目前的欧洲和美国的童年概念一直存在。欧洲人和美国人认为理所当然的唯一理由是自从他们自己早年以来就已经熟悉这个概念。当然，这不是充足的理由。自然，这个概念对他们来说很熟悉。但他们没有经历过公元前3000年或公元1500年的生活和思考，所以他们没有理由认为当时的人们分享了我们所有的概念和价值观。事实上，与历史的最亲密接触给出了有关概念和价值观发生变化的充分建议。
Was our concept of childhood shared by our ancestors back to the beginning of humanity? No. on the contrary, it is a relatively recent idea, dating back only a few centuries.Before that children were not considered to be different from adults in their nature and needs. As painting and sculpture of various times reveal, children were thought of as little adults.
我们的祖先的童年概念是否回归到人类的开端？不，相反，这是一个相对较新的想法，可以追溯到几个世纪。在此之前，儿童在天性和需求方面不被认为与成年人不同。随着各种时代的绘画和雕塑的发现，儿童被认为是小成人。
Very likely much of the tension between young people and their parents could be eliminated by a clearer understanding of how dramatically attitudes toward children have changed. As in so many situation however, such understanding can be reached only when the prevailing assumption is recognized and found unwarranted.
青少年和他们的父母之间的紧张关系很可能通过更明确地了解对儿童的显着态度发生了改变而消除。然而，正如在许多情况下一样，只有当普遍的假设得到承认并被发现没有根据时才能达成这种理解。
RECOGNIZING UNWARRANTED ASSUMPTIONS
识别毫无依据的假设
It is not too difficult to evaluate an assumption and decide whether or not it is warranted. The real difficulty is in identifying it in the first place. The reason for this is that, unlike the other problems in thinking we have discussed, assumptions are usually unexpressed. To recognize the assumptions in your thinking and the thinking of others, develop the habit of reading (and listening) between the lines. In other words, become sensitive to those ideas that are not stated but are nevertheless clearly implied. Consider this dialog:
评估一个假设并决定是否有理由并不困难。真正的困难在于首先确定它。其原因是，与我们讨论过的思考中的其他问题不同，假设通常不被表达。要认识到你思想和他人思维的假设，培养阅读（和倾听）习惯。换句话说，对那些没有说明但明确暗示的观点变得敏感。考虑这个对话框：
Cloris: I really don't understand why people make such a fuss about violence in films.
克洛里斯 ：我真的不明白为什么人们对电影中的暴力行为进行这样的争论。
Mavis: they say that violent films harm viewers.
Mavis ：他们说暴力电影会伤害观众。
Cloris: That's silly. I've watched them all my life, and I've never done anything violent.
Cloris ：这很愚蠢。我一生都在看他们，我从来没有做过任何暴力事情。
Cloris reasons that if she has watched violent films all her life yet hasn't done anything violent, violence in films can't be harmful. That reasoning reveals two assumptions Cloris may be unaware of. The first is that the only conceivable way for film violence to harm people is by making them violent. Is that assumption warranted? No. there is another way that film violence could conceivably do harm: by making people insensitive to others' pain and complacent about violence in real life. The second assumption is that Cloris'experience is necessarily typical. This assumption is also unwarranted because, unlike Cloris, others may have been led to violence by viewing film violence.
Cloris的理由是，如果她一生都看过暴力电影，却没有采取任何暴力行为，那么电影中的暴力就不会有害。这个推理揭示了克洛里斯可能不知道的两个假设。首先，电影暴力伤害人的唯一可行方式是让他们暴力。这个假设是否有用？不，还有另一种电影暴力可能会造成伤害的方式：让人们对他人的痛苦感到敏感，并对现实生活中的暴力感到自满。第二个假设是，Cloris的经验是必须的。这种假设也是没有根据的，因为与克劳利斯不同，其他人可能因观看电影暴力而导致暴力。
APPLICATIONS
应用
Examine each of the following dialogues. Identify any assumptions made by the speakers. Be precise. If possible, decide whether the assumptions are warranted.
检查以下每个对话。确定发言人所做的任何假设。准确。如果可能的话，决定是否保证这些假设。
Olaf: Did you hear the good news? School may not open on schedule this year.
奥拉夫 ：你听到这个好消息吗？学校今年可能无法如期开学。
Olga: How come?
奥尔加 ：怎么回事？
Olaf: The teachers may be on strike.
奥拉夫 ：老师可能会罢工。
Olga: Strike? This ridiculous, They're already making good money.
奥尔加 ：罢工？这可笑，他们已经赚了好钱。
Janice: What movie is on at the theater tonight?
珍妮丝 ：今晚剧院里有什么电影？
Mike: I don't know the title. It's something about lesbians. Do you want to go?
迈克 ：我不知道标题。这是关于女同性恋的事情。你想去吗？
Janice: No thanks. I'll wait for a quality film.
珍妮丝 ：不用了，谢谢。我会等待一部优质的电影。
Boris: Boy, talk about unfair markers. Nelson's the worst.
鲍里斯 ：男孩，谈论不公平的标记。尼尔森是最糟糕的。
Bridget: Why? What did he do?
布里奇特 ：为什么？他做了什么？
Boris: What did he do? He gave me a D – on the midterm, that's all – after I spent twelve straight hours studying for it. I may just make an appointment to see the dean about him.
鲍里斯 ：他做了什么？他在中期为我提供了一个D - 就是这一切 - 在我花了连续十二个小时学习之后。我可能只是预约看看他的院长。
Mr. Smith: The Harrisons are having marital problems. I'll bet they'll be separating soon.
史密斯先生 ：哈里森有军事问题。我敢打赌他们很快就会分开。
Mr. Jones: How do you know?
琼斯先生 ：你怎么知道的？
Mrs. Smith: I heard it at the supermarket. Helen told Gail and Gail told me.
史密斯夫人 ：我在超市听到了。海伦告诉盖尔，盖尔告诉我。
Mr. Jones: I knew it wouldn't work out. Jeb Harrison is such a blah person. I can't blame Ruth for wanting to leave him.
琼斯先生 ：我知道它不会奏效。杰布哈里森是这样一个无情的人。我不能责怪露丝想要离开他。
Apply your critical thinking to the following cases. Be sure to identify all your assumptions and decide whether they are warranted.
将您的批判性思维应用于以下案例。一定要确定你所有的假设，并决定他们是否有依据。
During his presidency, Ronald Reagan formally proposed a constitutional amendment permitting prayer in the public schools, arguing that it was time to "restore the simple freedom of our citizens to offer prayer in public schools and institutions."The amendment was worded as follows: "Nothing in this Constitution shall be construed to prohibit individual or group prayer in public schools or other pubic institutions. No person shall be required by the United States or by any state to participate in prayer." Do you endorse this amendment?
罗纳德里根在担任总统期间正式提出了允许在公立学校进行祈祷的宪法修正案，认为现在是“恢复公民的公民学校和机构提供祈祷的简单自由的时候了”。该修正案措词如下：“本宪法中的任何内容均不得解释为禁止在公立学校或其他公立学校进行个人或团体祷告，美国或任何州不得要求任何人参加祷告。“ 你赞成这个修正案吗？
A Cambridge, Massachusetts, man got tired of looking at his neighbor's uncut lawn and untrimmed shrubs, which reached above the second-story window, and took his grievance to court. The neighbor admitted to the judge that he hadn't cut the lawn in fourteen years,but he argued that he preferred a natural lawn to a manicured one and untrimmed trimmed shrubs. The judge decided he was perfectly within his legal rights in leaving his lawn and shrubs uncut, regardless of what his neighbor felt.
马萨诸塞州剑桥的一个男人厌倦了看着他邻居未割草的草坪和二层窗户上方的未修剪的灌木，并向法庭投诉。邻居向法官承认，他在十四年内没割草，但他认为他更喜欢修剪整齐的天然草坪，不修剪灌木。无论他的邻居感受到什么，法官认为他完全没有权利离开他的草坪和灌木。
Should parents who feel their college-age sons and daughters are being brainwashed by religious cults be allowed to kidnap their children and have them deprogrammed?
如果父母认为自己的大学时代的儿女正在被宗教邪教洗脑，他们是否被允许绑架他们的孩子并让他们解除影响？
Should parents be allowed to keep their children out of school if they believe they can educate them better at home?
如果家长认为他们可以在家里更好地教育他们，应该允许父母让他们的孩子失学吗？
Many motorcyclists object to the laws of some states that require them and their passengers to wear helmets.They believe they should be free to decide for themselves whether to wear a helmet. Do you agree?
许多摩托车手反对一些国家的法律，要求他们和乘客戴头盔。他们认为他们应该自由决定是否戴头盔。 你同意吗？
Group discussion exercise: Discuss one of the cases in application 2with two or three of your classmates. Try to reach consensus on the issue, taking care to avoid unwarranted assumptions. Be prepared to present your group's view (or the individual views) to the class.
小组讨论练习：与你的两个或三个同学讨论申请2中的一个案例。尝试就这个问题达成共识，注意避免不必要的假设。准备好向班级介绍团队的观点（或个人观点）。
这个系列是对超越感觉：批判性思考指南 07版做的翻译练习，如果觉得有帮助可以点链接购买第九版中文，英文原版在这里Beyond Feelings：A Guide to Critical Thinking （英语）
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