Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
Could the bad old days of economic decline（下滑） be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply（供应）-cuts（减少） in March, the price of crude（原材料、原油） oil has jumped（上涨） to almost $26 a barrel（桶）, up（上升） from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling（三倍的） of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled（四倍的）, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled（三倍的）. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit（数字） inflation（通货膨胀） and global economic decline（衰退）. So where are the headlines（标题） warning of gloom and doom（沮丧悲观） this time?
经济下滑的糟糕老日子还会回来吗？在石油输出国组织同意在三月减少供应石油，原油的价格便上升到了每升26美元，而上年11月份每斤还不到10美元。这增长几乎3倍的现状，唤醒了大家在1973年经历的石油危机价格涨到3倍时的记忆。在1979-1980年期间，那时候价格飞速涨到了2倍。这之前两次的石油危机导致了两倍的通货膨胀和全球金融衰退。那么这个时候对目前的经济萧条沮丧发出警示的标题在哪里呢？
减少：decline/ reduce /decrease/ cut down /lessen/depress/decay/minify/rebate /drop/sink/cut/abate
上升：rise/go /up/upward/jump/increase/add/augment /fortify/aggrandize/enhence/boost/increase / advance /impove /ascent
月份：一月January二月 February三月 Marcy四月 April五月 May六月 June七月 July八月 August九月 September十月 October十一月 November十二月 December
倍数：Single (1) Double (2) Triple (3) Quadruple(4) Quintuple or Pentuple (5) Sextuple or Hextuple (6) Septuple (7) Octuple (8) Nonuple (9)Decuple (10)Hendecuple or Undecuple (11) Duodecuple (12) Centuple (100)
deflation：通货紧缩 inflation：通货膨胀
Headlines：新闻标题 underline下划线，强调，突出
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
The oil price was given another push up（上升） this week when Iraq suspended（停止） oil exports. Strengthening（强化、激励） economic growth, at the same time as winter grips（冬季到来，grips抓紧） the northern hemisphere（半球）, could push（上升） the price higher still in the short term.
当伊拉克暂停石油出口后，石油价格在上周再次上涨，激励经济发展的同时，北半球冬季的到来在短时间内会推动价格再次上升。
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Yet there are good reasons to expect（期待、认为、预料） the economic consequences（后果） now to be less severe（严重、严峻） than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost（成本） of crude oil（原油） now accounts for（占） a smaller share of the price of petrol（汽油） than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes（税收） account for（占） up to four-fifths of the retail（零售） price, so even（甚至、即使） quite（表肯定） big changes in the price of crude（原油） have a more muted（缓和） effect on pump prices（汽油价格） than in the past.
expect（期待、认为、预料） except：除…之外
结果：result/outcome/fruit/ending/consequence/termination/progeny
少：few/litter/less/short/lack/lose/seldom
cost：价钱，代价，花费，费用，花费
quite：非常，相当，很，确实如此 quiet：安静
effect：效果，影响，印象，所有物，引发，产生 effort：工作;努力，尝试; 成就; 杰作
然而，这里有很好的理由估计，油价上涨带来的经济结果要比1970年期间好一些。在很多国家，现在的原油价格比1970年占据汽油价格的份额小得多。在欧洲，税收价格占零售价格的五分之四，甚至在原油的价格上有很大的改变，比以前在输出价格上的影响也会减弱。
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies — to which heavy industry has shifted — have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings（摇摆、波动） in the oil price. Energy conservation（节约）, a shift（改变、替代） to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy（重要性）, energy-intensive industries（能源密集型重工业） have reduced oil consumption（消耗量）. Software, consultancy（咨询行业） and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel（钢） or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant（不间断的、不变的） prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates（估计） in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel（桶） for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies — to which heavy industry has shifted（转向） — have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed（挤压）.
Import：输入;进口 export： 出口，输出
发达的经济体相比以前更少依赖于石油，因此石油价格来回摇摆变得不那么敏感了。能源保护、其他能源的替代能源密集型产业重要性的加大减少了石油的消耗量。软件业、咨询行业、手机电话产业使用的石油远远比钢铁工业和汽车制造业使用的石油少。现在发达经济体的国内生产总值中的每一美元（按不变的价格计算）都比1973年石油消耗几乎少了近50%。经济合作与发展组织在最近的一期《经济展望》上估计：“如果是石油价格相比于1998年的每升13元，全年平均为每桶22元，这将会使发达经济体上石油进口支出GDP所占比例增加0.25-0.5%，这比1974-1980年期间收入损失的四分之一还少。另一方面，石油进口的新兴经济体由于转向重工业正在转变，将变成更加依赖石油能源，那么可能将收到石油危机更严峻的压迫。”
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
One more reason not to lose sleep over（担忧） the rise in oil prices is that, unlike（不像） the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred（发生） against the background of （以…为背景）general commodity-price（物价） inflation（通货膨胀） and global excess （超过）demand（需求）. A sizable（相当多） portion of the world is only just emerging from（摆脱出来） economic decline. The Economist's commodity（商品） price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity（商品） prices jumped（暴涨） by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
发生：happen/occur/take place/come up/turn up/ arise/ chance/befall/come off/be set/bring to pass
deflation：通货紧缩 inflation：通货膨胀 excess
超过：exceed/surpass/more than/override/overrun/overtake/outstrip
出现：emerge/appear/arise/grow/turn up
一部分：a portion of/a part of/partial
还有一个原因可以不必担忧石油价格上升，与1970年不同的是，此次油价上涨不是在以物价普遍上涨和全球需求过剩为背景。全世界相当多一部分的地区刚刚从经济衰退中经历，《经济学家》发布的商品指数一年内也没有太明显的改变。1970年商品价格上涨了70%，1979年也上涨了几乎30%。
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