VUCA时代

They use phrases like "discontinuity", "disruption", or the recently minted military acronym VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity). They know that the world in which our children will grow up is not just marginally different from that of previous generation; it's vastly faster and more interdependent, and thus essentially complex in entirely new ways. They live in the wayward swirl--a totally different place from the clockwork universe. We get in trouble when we try to use tools designed for the latter to tinker with the former.

VUCA是Volatility（易变性）、Uncertainty（不确定性）、Complexity（复杂性），Ambiguity（模糊性）的缩写。VUCA这个术语源于军事用语。宝洁公司首席运营官罗伯特·麦克唐纳借用一个军事术语来描述这一新的商业世界格局：“这是一个 VUCA 的世界。”

应对VUCA最适合的方法就是敏捷开发了，因为敏捷开发有如下特点：

1. 短迭代，尽早拿到用户的反馈
2. 小团队，充分发挥个人的主观能动性
3. 适应性，拥抱变化，在复杂多变的环境下随需应变。